Cyclicality and Economic Growth Dynamics: Business Cycles’ Typologization, Dating, and Matching with Oil Price Fluctuations
This paper proposes a quarterly reference dating of the periods of expansion and recession in the Algerian aggregate economy since 2001. First, the study examines business cycles from different angles, drawing on a general typology, dating methodologies, and various measures of cycle characterizatio...
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Academic Research and Publishing UG
2025-03-01
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| Series: | Financial Markets, Institutions and Risks |
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| Online Access: | https://armgpublishing.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/FMIR_1_2025_5.pdf
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| author | Habiba Bouguerroumi Yacine Belarbi |
| author_facet | Habiba Bouguerroumi Yacine Belarbi |
| author_sort | Habiba Bouguerroumi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This paper proposes a quarterly reference dating of the periods of expansion and recession in the Algerian aggregate economy since 2001. First, the study examines business cycles from different angles, drawing on a general typology, dating methodologies, and various measures of cycle characterization. The cycles’ typology provides the conceptual basis for understanding the dynamics of economic activity, while the dating methodology provides a precise analytical framework for identifying and characterizing the different phases of the cycle. Second, to identify the recession and expansion phases of the Algerian business cycle, the paper employs a non-parametric dating methodology by applying the modified Bry-Boschan procedure for quarterly data proposed by Harding and Pagan (2002). The obtained chronology reveals an asymmetric structure, characterized by expansion phases that are longer (10.8 quarters on average) than contraction phases (4.2 quarters on average). Thus, the measurement and the analysis of the cyclicality have highlighted disproportionate characteristics of these contractions, both in terms of amplitude and severity. The average amplitude of contraction phases is significantly higher (0.43 percentage points) than that of expansions (0.12 percentage points). Moreover, the severity of contractions (0.7 percentage points) also exceeds that of expansions (0.46 percentage points). These results show that, although contraction phases are shorter, they have a greater economic impact. Thus, this asymmetry is also substantiated by the Excess Cumulated Movements Index, which has a negative value of -0.47 % for contractions, in contrast to a positive but modest value of 0.05 % for expansions. Finally, one of the most significant findings of this study is the high sensitivity of economic cyclicality to fluctuations in hydrocarbon market prices. This persistent trend, observed throughout the study period, highlights the structural vulnerability of the Algerian economy to external shocks. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-d513d09825414093b14cb25b5c077da9 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2521-1250 2521-1242 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
| publisher | Academic Research and Publishing UG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Financial Markets, Institutions and Risks |
| spelling | doaj-art-d513d09825414093b14cb25b5c077da92025-08-20T03:19:02ZengAcademic Research and Publishing UGFinancial Markets, Institutions and Risks2521-12502521-12422025-03-0191597310.61093/fmir.9(1).59-73.2025Cyclicality and Economic Growth Dynamics: Business Cycles’ Typologization, Dating, and Matching with Oil Price FluctuationsHabiba Bouguerroumi0https://orcid.org/0009-0002-0958-405XYacine Belarbi1https://orcid.org/0009-0009-1550-1194PhD Candidate, High National School of Statistic and Applied Economics, Algeria.Senior researcher, Center for Research in Applied Economics for Development CREAD, Algeria.This paper proposes a quarterly reference dating of the periods of expansion and recession in the Algerian aggregate economy since 2001. First, the study examines business cycles from different angles, drawing on a general typology, dating methodologies, and various measures of cycle characterization. The cycles’ typology provides the conceptual basis for understanding the dynamics of economic activity, while the dating methodology provides a precise analytical framework for identifying and characterizing the different phases of the cycle. Second, to identify the recession and expansion phases of the Algerian business cycle, the paper employs a non-parametric dating methodology by applying the modified Bry-Boschan procedure for quarterly data proposed by Harding and Pagan (2002). The obtained chronology reveals an asymmetric structure, characterized by expansion phases that are longer (10.8 quarters on average) than contraction phases (4.2 quarters on average). Thus, the measurement and the analysis of the cyclicality have highlighted disproportionate characteristics of these contractions, both in terms of amplitude and severity. The average amplitude of contraction phases is significantly higher (0.43 percentage points) than that of expansions (0.12 percentage points). Moreover, the severity of contractions (0.7 percentage points) also exceeds that of expansions (0.46 percentage points). These results show that, although contraction phases are shorter, they have a greater economic impact. Thus, this asymmetry is also substantiated by the Excess Cumulated Movements Index, which has a negative value of -0.47 % for contractions, in contrast to a positive but modest value of 0.05 % for expansions. Finally, one of the most significant findings of this study is the high sensitivity of economic cyclicality to fluctuations in hydrocarbon market prices. This persistent trend, observed throughout the study period, highlights the structural vulnerability of the Algerian economy to external shocks.https://armgpublishing.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/FMIR_1_2025_5.pdf business cyclegrowthdatingalgerian economybry-boschan procedureturning pointnon-parametric methodexpansionrecessioninternational marketprice fluctuations |
| spellingShingle | Habiba Bouguerroumi Yacine Belarbi Cyclicality and Economic Growth Dynamics: Business Cycles’ Typologization, Dating, and Matching with Oil Price Fluctuations Financial Markets, Institutions and Risks business cycle growth dating algerian economy bry-boschan procedure turning point non-parametric method expansion recession international market price fluctuations |
| title | Cyclicality and Economic Growth Dynamics: Business Cycles’ Typologization, Dating, and Matching with Oil Price Fluctuations |
| title_full | Cyclicality and Economic Growth Dynamics: Business Cycles’ Typologization, Dating, and Matching with Oil Price Fluctuations |
| title_fullStr | Cyclicality and Economic Growth Dynamics: Business Cycles’ Typologization, Dating, and Matching with Oil Price Fluctuations |
| title_full_unstemmed | Cyclicality and Economic Growth Dynamics: Business Cycles’ Typologization, Dating, and Matching with Oil Price Fluctuations |
| title_short | Cyclicality and Economic Growth Dynamics: Business Cycles’ Typologization, Dating, and Matching with Oil Price Fluctuations |
| title_sort | cyclicality and economic growth dynamics business cycles typologization dating and matching with oil price fluctuations |
| topic | business cycle growth dating algerian economy bry-boschan procedure turning point non-parametric method expansion recession international market price fluctuations |
| url | https://armgpublishing.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/FMIR_1_2025_5.pdf
|
| work_keys_str_mv | AT habibabouguerroumi cyclicalityandeconomicgrowthdynamicsbusinesscyclestypologizationdatingandmatchingwithoilpricefluctuations AT yacinebelarbi cyclicalityandeconomicgrowthdynamicsbusinesscyclestypologizationdatingandmatchingwithoilpricefluctuations |