Climate Warming Increases the Voltinism of Pine Caterpillar (<i>Dendrolimus spectabilis</i> Butler): Model Predictions Across Elevations and Latitudes in Shandong Province, China
The pine caterpillar (<i>Dendrolimus spectabilis</i> Bulter, Lepidoptera: Lasiocampidae) is a destructive insect threatening forest communities across Eurasia. The pest is polyvoltine, and under global warming, more favorable temperatures can lead to additional generations. Here, we simu...
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2025-02-01
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| author | Yongbin Bao Teri Gele Xingpeng Liu Zhijun Tong Jiquan Zhang |
| author_facet | Yongbin Bao Teri Gele Xingpeng Liu Zhijun Tong Jiquan Zhang |
| author_sort | Yongbin Bao |
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| description | The pine caterpillar (<i>Dendrolimus spectabilis</i> Bulter, Lepidoptera: Lasiocampidae) is a destructive insect threatening forest communities across Eurasia. The pest is polyvoltine, and under global warming, more favorable temperatures can lead to additional generations. Here, we simulated the pine caterpillar voltinism under current and future climatic scenarios based on insect thermal physiology and cumulative growing degree day (CGDD) model. Subsequently, we revealed the future change patterns of the voltinism along elevational and latitudinal gradients. The results showed that both CGDD and pine caterpillar voltinism are increasing. The current voltinism of pine caterpillar ranges from 1.26 to 1.56 generations (1.40 ± 0.07), with an increasing trend of 0.04/10a. Similar trends are expected to continue under the future climate scenarios, with values of 0.01/10a, 0.05/10a, 0.07/10a, and 0.09/10a for the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. At the elevation and latitudinal gradients, voltinism increases across all ranges, peaking at 500–1000 m and latitudes of 34–34.5° N. This study highlights that the increase in voltinism is not limited to low-elevation and -latitude regions but is predicted across various elevations and latitudes. These findings can enhance our understanding of how climate change affects pine caterpillar voltinism and contribute to forest pest management strategies, although this study assumes a linear relationship between temperature and voltinism, without considering other ecological factors. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-d4f7dd94879443b6b4890760fceac4e0 |
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| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
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| series | Insects |
| spelling | doaj-art-d4f7dd94879443b6b4890760fceac4e02025-08-20T01:48:46ZengMDPI AGInsects2075-44502025-02-0116324910.3390/insects16030249Climate Warming Increases the Voltinism of Pine Caterpillar (<i>Dendrolimus spectabilis</i> Butler): Model Predictions Across Elevations and Latitudes in Shandong Province, ChinaYongbin Bao0Teri Gele1Xingpeng Liu2Zhijun Tong3Jiquan Zhang4School of Environment, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, ChinaSchool of Environment, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, ChinaSchool of Environment, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, ChinaSchool of Environment, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, ChinaSchool of Environment, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, ChinaThe pine caterpillar (<i>Dendrolimus spectabilis</i> Bulter, Lepidoptera: Lasiocampidae) is a destructive insect threatening forest communities across Eurasia. The pest is polyvoltine, and under global warming, more favorable temperatures can lead to additional generations. Here, we simulated the pine caterpillar voltinism under current and future climatic scenarios based on insect thermal physiology and cumulative growing degree day (CGDD) model. Subsequently, we revealed the future change patterns of the voltinism along elevational and latitudinal gradients. The results showed that both CGDD and pine caterpillar voltinism are increasing. The current voltinism of pine caterpillar ranges from 1.26 to 1.56 generations (1.40 ± 0.07), with an increasing trend of 0.04/10a. Similar trends are expected to continue under the future climate scenarios, with values of 0.01/10a, 0.05/10a, 0.07/10a, and 0.09/10a for the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. At the elevation and latitudinal gradients, voltinism increases across all ranges, peaking at 500–1000 m and latitudes of 34–34.5° N. This study highlights that the increase in voltinism is not limited to low-elevation and -latitude regions but is predicted across various elevations and latitudes. These findings can enhance our understanding of how climate change affects pine caterpillar voltinism and contribute to forest pest management strategies, although this study assumes a linear relationship between temperature and voltinism, without considering other ecological factors.https://www.mdpi.com/2075-4450/16/3/249climate changeclimate scenariosvoltinismpine caterpillarresponse |
| spellingShingle | Yongbin Bao Teri Gele Xingpeng Liu Zhijun Tong Jiquan Zhang Climate Warming Increases the Voltinism of Pine Caterpillar (<i>Dendrolimus spectabilis</i> Butler): Model Predictions Across Elevations and Latitudes in Shandong Province, China Insects climate change climate scenarios voltinism pine caterpillar response |
| title | Climate Warming Increases the Voltinism of Pine Caterpillar (<i>Dendrolimus spectabilis</i> Butler): Model Predictions Across Elevations and Latitudes in Shandong Province, China |
| title_full | Climate Warming Increases the Voltinism of Pine Caterpillar (<i>Dendrolimus spectabilis</i> Butler): Model Predictions Across Elevations and Latitudes in Shandong Province, China |
| title_fullStr | Climate Warming Increases the Voltinism of Pine Caterpillar (<i>Dendrolimus spectabilis</i> Butler): Model Predictions Across Elevations and Latitudes in Shandong Province, China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate Warming Increases the Voltinism of Pine Caterpillar (<i>Dendrolimus spectabilis</i> Butler): Model Predictions Across Elevations and Latitudes in Shandong Province, China |
| title_short | Climate Warming Increases the Voltinism of Pine Caterpillar (<i>Dendrolimus spectabilis</i> Butler): Model Predictions Across Elevations and Latitudes in Shandong Province, China |
| title_sort | climate warming increases the voltinism of pine caterpillar i dendrolimus spectabilis i butler model predictions across elevations and latitudes in shandong province china |
| topic | climate change climate scenarios voltinism pine caterpillar response |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2075-4450/16/3/249 |
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