Trend analysis of the coupling effect between new urbanization and resources-environment in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay area
Achieving sustainable urbanization necessitates the assurance of the stability and functionality of the urbanization-resource-environment system, but extant studies lack adequate methods for dynamic prediction and analysis of new urbanization characteristics. This study constructs an urbanization-re...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2025-06-01
|
| Series: | Ecological Indicators |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X2500531X |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1849717966733574144 |
|---|---|
| author | Hongyi Dou Guoqin Zhang |
| author_facet | Hongyi Dou Guoqin Zhang |
| author_sort | Hongyi Dou |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Achieving sustainable urbanization necessitates the assurance of the stability and functionality of the urbanization-resource-environment system, but extant studies lack adequate methods for dynamic prediction and analysis of new urbanization characteristics. This study constructs an urbanization-resource-environment system dynamics (SD) model that highlights the new urbanization characteristics to simulate and predict the development trends from 1990 to 2035 at urban cluster and city scales. Additionally, it develops a comprehensive coupling coordination model to evaluate the multidimensional dynamics of the coupling relationship and the main control elements. The findings indicated that the urbanization-resource-environment coupling effects of various cities within the Greater Bay Area exhibit distinct spatial heterogeneities attributable to their disparate resource endowments and development processes, the coupling coordination development index (CDI) of core cities like Hong Kong and Shenzhen had declined by about 0.2, while peripheral cities like Huizhou sustained growth. However, the CDI of urban cluster fluctuating steadily at 0.63–0.72 with an average annual increase of about 0.2%, indicating minimal risk of imbalance in coupling development. Among these factors, urbanization indicators reveal a gradual deceleration in growth trend after 2025, while the resources utilization of the urban cluster tends to be stable, and the coordination of the environmental system relies more on intermittent policy regulation. Furthermore, the examination of trends and controlling factors offers policymakers the opportunity to implement targeted management strategies and multidimensional macro-control planning. The framework is also applicable to other rapidly developing urban clusters, providing a scientific basis for urban planning, ecological protection, and sustainable development. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-d4e8e17fccad47d2bba5dd2eb0df75b3 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 1470-160X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecological Indicators |
| spelling | doaj-art-d4e8e17fccad47d2bba5dd2eb0df75b32025-08-20T03:12:31ZengElsevierEcological Indicators1470-160X2025-06-0117511360110.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113601Trend analysis of the coupling effect between new urbanization and resources-environment in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay areaHongyi Dou0Guoqin Zhang1Key Lab of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, ChinaKey Lab of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China; CAS Haixi Industrial Technology Innovation Center in Beilun, Ningbo 315800, China; Xiamen Key Laboratory of Smart Management on The Urban Environment, Xiamen 361021, China; Corresponding author at: Key Lab of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China.Achieving sustainable urbanization necessitates the assurance of the stability and functionality of the urbanization-resource-environment system, but extant studies lack adequate methods for dynamic prediction and analysis of new urbanization characteristics. This study constructs an urbanization-resource-environment system dynamics (SD) model that highlights the new urbanization characteristics to simulate and predict the development trends from 1990 to 2035 at urban cluster and city scales. Additionally, it develops a comprehensive coupling coordination model to evaluate the multidimensional dynamics of the coupling relationship and the main control elements. The findings indicated that the urbanization-resource-environment coupling effects of various cities within the Greater Bay Area exhibit distinct spatial heterogeneities attributable to their disparate resource endowments and development processes, the coupling coordination development index (CDI) of core cities like Hong Kong and Shenzhen had declined by about 0.2, while peripheral cities like Huizhou sustained growth. However, the CDI of urban cluster fluctuating steadily at 0.63–0.72 with an average annual increase of about 0.2%, indicating minimal risk of imbalance in coupling development. Among these factors, urbanization indicators reveal a gradual deceleration in growth trend after 2025, while the resources utilization of the urban cluster tends to be stable, and the coordination of the environmental system relies more on intermittent policy regulation. Furthermore, the examination of trends and controlling factors offers policymakers the opportunity to implement targeted management strategies and multidimensional macro-control planning. The framework is also applicable to other rapidly developing urban clusters, providing a scientific basis for urban planning, ecological protection, and sustainable development.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X2500531XUrbanization-resources-environment systemCoupling effectSystem dynamics methodComplex system theoryGuangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area |
| spellingShingle | Hongyi Dou Guoqin Zhang Trend analysis of the coupling effect between new urbanization and resources-environment in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay area Ecological Indicators Urbanization-resources-environment system Coupling effect System dynamics method Complex system theory Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area |
| title | Trend analysis of the coupling effect between new urbanization and resources-environment in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay area |
| title_full | Trend analysis of the coupling effect between new urbanization and resources-environment in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay area |
| title_fullStr | Trend analysis of the coupling effect between new urbanization and resources-environment in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay area |
| title_full_unstemmed | Trend analysis of the coupling effect between new urbanization and resources-environment in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay area |
| title_short | Trend analysis of the coupling effect between new urbanization and resources-environment in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay area |
| title_sort | trend analysis of the coupling effect between new urbanization and resources environment in the guangdong hong kong macao greater bay area |
| topic | Urbanization-resources-environment system Coupling effect System dynamics method Complex system theory Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X2500531X |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT hongyidou trendanalysisofthecouplingeffectbetweennewurbanizationandresourcesenvironmentintheguangdonghongkongmacaogreaterbayarea AT guoqinzhang trendanalysisofthecouplingeffectbetweennewurbanizationandresourcesenvironmentintheguangdonghongkongmacaogreaterbayarea |