Global, Regional, and National Burden of Breast Cancer, 1990–2021, and Projections to 2050: A Systematic Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
ABSTRACT Background This study analyzes the global burden of breast cancer (BC) over the past 30 years, identifies key risk factors, and projects future incidence and mortality through 2050. Methods Data were sourced from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. The estimated annual percent...
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| Format: | Article |
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Wiley
2025-05-01
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| Series: | Thoracic Cancer |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1111/1759-7714.70052 |
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| author | Tong Deng Hao Zi Xing‐Pei Guo Li‐Sha Luo Ya‐Long Yang Jin‐Xuan Hou Rui Zhou Qian‐Qian Yuan Qing Liu Qiao Huang Gao‐Song Wu |
| author_facet | Tong Deng Hao Zi Xing‐Pei Guo Li‐Sha Luo Ya‐Long Yang Jin‐Xuan Hou Rui Zhou Qian‐Qian Yuan Qing Liu Qiao Huang Gao‐Song Wu |
| author_sort | Tong Deng |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | ABSTRACT Background This study analyzes the global burden of breast cancer (BC) over the past 30 years, identifies key risk factors, and projects future incidence and mortality through 2050. Methods Data were sourced from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was used to assess trends, and country development was measured using the Socio‐Demographic Index (SDI). Projections were conducted using Bayesian age‐period‐cohort and autoregressive integrated moving average models. Results In 2021, approximately 2.12 million new breast cancer cases and 674 199 deaths were recorded globally. From 1990 to 2021, incidence and prevalence increased, while mortality and disability‐adjusted life years (DALYs) declined overall. Regional and national variations were observed, alongside age and gender differences in the disease burden. A diet high in red meat and a high body mass index were the leading global risk factors for breast cancer deaths. The BC burden was positively correlated with SDI across 21 GBD regions. Decomposition analysis highlighted demographic factors as the main drivers of increased disease burden over the past three decades. Projections indicate that BC incidence will continue to rise through 2050. Conclusions While global BC mortality has decreased over the past 30 years, incidence continues to rise. Low‐SDI regions face increasing challenges, as incidence, mortality, and DALYs persistently climb. These findings underscore the need for targeted public health strategies and equitable resource distribution to mitigate the rising burden of breast cancer. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-d47d5ec3b1ff45889df3c85e995f6369 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1759-7706 1759-7714 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-05-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Thoracic Cancer |
| spelling | doaj-art-d47d5ec3b1ff45889df3c85e995f63692025-08-20T02:31:00ZengWileyThoracic Cancer1759-77061759-77142025-05-01169n/an/a10.1111/1759-7714.70052Global, Regional, and National Burden of Breast Cancer, 1990–2021, and Projections to 2050: A Systematic Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021Tong Deng0Hao Zi1Xing‐Pei Guo2Li‐Sha Luo3Ya‐Long Yang4Jin‐Xuan Hou5Rui Zhou6Qian‐Qian Yuan7Qing Liu8Qiao Huang9Gao‐Song Wu10Department of Thyroid and Breast Surgery Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University Wuhan ChinaEvidence‐Based Medicine Center Xiangyang No. 1 People's Hospital, Hubei University of Medicine Xiangyang ChinaDepartment of General Surgery Zhengzhou Central Hospital Affiliated to Zhengzhou University Zhengzhou ChinaCenter for Evidence‐Based and Translational Medicine Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University Wuhan ChinaDepartment of Breast Surgery Hubei Cancer Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Hubei Provincial Clinical Research Center for Breast Cancer, Wuhan Clinical Research Center for Breast Cancer Wuhan ChinaDepartment of Thyroid and Breast Surgery Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University Wuhan ChinaDepartment of Thyroid and Breast Surgery Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University Wuhan ChinaDepartment of Thyroid and Breast Surgery Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University Wuhan ChinaDepartment of Physical Examination Zhengzhou Central Hospital Affiliated to Zhengzhou University Zhengzhou ChinaCenter for Evidence‐Based and Translational Medicine Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University Wuhan ChinaDepartment of Thyroid and Breast Surgery Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University Wuhan ChinaABSTRACT Background This study analyzes the global burden of breast cancer (BC) over the past 30 years, identifies key risk factors, and projects future incidence and mortality through 2050. Methods Data were sourced from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was used to assess trends, and country development was measured using the Socio‐Demographic Index (SDI). Projections were conducted using Bayesian age‐period‐cohort and autoregressive integrated moving average models. Results In 2021, approximately 2.12 million new breast cancer cases and 674 199 deaths were recorded globally. From 1990 to 2021, incidence and prevalence increased, while mortality and disability‐adjusted life years (DALYs) declined overall. Regional and national variations were observed, alongside age and gender differences in the disease burden. A diet high in red meat and a high body mass index were the leading global risk factors for breast cancer deaths. The BC burden was positively correlated with SDI across 21 GBD regions. Decomposition analysis highlighted demographic factors as the main drivers of increased disease burden over the past three decades. Projections indicate that BC incidence will continue to rise through 2050. Conclusions While global BC mortality has decreased over the past 30 years, incidence continues to rise. Low‐SDI regions face increasing challenges, as incidence, mortality, and DALYs persistently climb. These findings underscore the need for targeted public health strategies and equitable resource distribution to mitigate the rising burden of breast cancer.https://doi.org/10.1111/1759-7714.70052breast cancercancer epidemiologyglobal burden of diseasepredictionrisk factors |
| spellingShingle | Tong Deng Hao Zi Xing‐Pei Guo Li‐Sha Luo Ya‐Long Yang Jin‐Xuan Hou Rui Zhou Qian‐Qian Yuan Qing Liu Qiao Huang Gao‐Song Wu Global, Regional, and National Burden of Breast Cancer, 1990–2021, and Projections to 2050: A Systematic Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 Thoracic Cancer breast cancer cancer epidemiology global burden of disease prediction risk factors |
| title | Global, Regional, and National Burden of Breast Cancer, 1990–2021, and Projections to 2050: A Systematic Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 |
| title_full | Global, Regional, and National Burden of Breast Cancer, 1990–2021, and Projections to 2050: A Systematic Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 |
| title_fullStr | Global, Regional, and National Burden of Breast Cancer, 1990–2021, and Projections to 2050: A Systematic Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global, Regional, and National Burden of Breast Cancer, 1990–2021, and Projections to 2050: A Systematic Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 |
| title_short | Global, Regional, and National Burden of Breast Cancer, 1990–2021, and Projections to 2050: A Systematic Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 |
| title_sort | global regional and national burden of breast cancer 1990 2021 and projections to 2050 a systematic analysis of the global burden of disease study 2021 |
| topic | breast cancer cancer epidemiology global burden of disease prediction risk factors |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1111/1759-7714.70052 |
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