Small-coupling dynamic cavity: A Bayesian mean-field framework for epidemic inference

A novel generalized mean-field approximation, called the small-coupling dynamic cavity (SCDC) method, for epidemic inference and risk assessment is presented. The method is developed within a fully Bayesian framework and accounts for noncausal effects generated by the presence of observations. It is...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Alfredo Braunstein, Giovanni Catania, Luca Dall'Asta, Matteo Mariani, Fabio Mazza, Mattia Tarabolo
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: American Physical Society 2025-04-01
Series:Physical Review Research
Online Access:http://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevResearch.7.023089
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