Predicting the impact of climate change on the distribution of rhododendron on the qinghai-xizang plateau using maxent model
Abstract Amid the ongoing trend of global warming, the distribution of habitable areas for Rhododendron is facing significant risks. To investigate the possible spatial distribution of Rhododendron on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau in light of future global warming scenarios, we employed the Maximum ent...
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Nature Portfolio
2025-03-01
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| author | Sen-Xin Chai Li-Ping Ma Zhong-Wu Ma Yu-Tian Lei Ya-Qiong Ye Bo Wang Yuan-Ming Xiao Ying Yang Guo-Ying Zhou |
| author_facet | Sen-Xin Chai Li-Ping Ma Zhong-Wu Ma Yu-Tian Lei Ya-Qiong Ye Bo Wang Yuan-Ming Xiao Ying Yang Guo-Ying Zhou |
| author_sort | Sen-Xin Chai |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Amid the ongoing trend of global warming, the distribution of habitable areas for Rhododendron is facing significant risks. To investigate the possible spatial distribution of Rhododendron on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau in light of future global warming scenarios, we employed the Maximum entropy model (MaxEnt model) to map its suitable habitat using geographic distribution data and environmental factors projected for 2050s and 2070s, considering three representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, while identifying the key factors influencing their distribution. The results show that: [1] The area under curve (AUC) values of the five Rhododendron were all greater than 0.98, indicated that the model prediction effect was excellent; [2] Isothermality is the most important environmental factor affecting the distribution of Rhododendron (excluding Rhododendron przewalskii). The most important environmental factor for Rhododendron przewalskii is altitude (alt: 51%), with an optimum range of 2700–3300 m, and Rhododendron trichostomum are affected by altitude (alt 18%), with an optimum range of 3200–3900 m. Rhododendron przewalskii (bio12: 21%) and Rhododendron trichostomum(bio12: 19%) are also affected by annual precipitation, and Rhododendron laudandum(bio12: 6%) is less affected by annual precipitation, The optimal amount of precipitation is 400–500 mm as well as 500–800 mm. Rhododendron przewalskii and Rhododendron trichostomum are suitable for survival in high altitude, semi-arid areas [3]. The suitable areas for survival for Rhododendron przewalskii, Rhododendron trichostomum, Rhododendron hypenanthum, and Rhododendron nyingchiense is expanding, while the suitable areas for survival for Rhododendron laudandum is shrinking [4]. The optimal zone for Rhododendron przewalskii is primarily found in the eastern section of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, while suitable areas for survival for the other four Rhododendron species are predominantly located in the southern region of the same plateau. Therefore, these regions will be designated as the primary conservation zones for in-situ preservation. The results of the study provide a basis for the in situ conservation of Rhododendron in response to global warming, relocation conservation, and the construction of nature reserve communities and ecological corridors. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-d4376a0d81524143bf8642e44ab4df7a |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
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| spelling | doaj-art-d4376a0d81524143bf8642e44ab4df7a2025-08-20T03:40:48ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-03-0115111310.1038/s41598-025-95016-8Predicting the impact of climate change on the distribution of rhododendron on the qinghai-xizang plateau using maxent modelSen-Xin Chai0Li-Ping Ma1Zhong-Wu Ma2Yu-Tian Lei3Ya-Qiong Ye4Bo Wang5Yuan-Ming Xiao6Ying Yang7Guo-Ying Zhou8College of Life Sciences, Qinghai Normal UniversityQinghai Transportation Planning and Design Institute Co. LtdQinghai Transportation Planning and Design Institute Co. LtdQinghai Transportation Planning and Design Institute Co. LtdCoalfield Geoogy Research Institute of GansuCAS Key Laboratory of Tibetan Medicine Research, Northwest Institute of Plateau BiologyCAS Key Laboratory of Tibetan Medicine Research, Northwest Institute of Plateau BiologyCAS Key Laboratory of Tibetan Medicine Research, Northwest Institute of Plateau BiologyCAS Key Laboratory of Tibetan Medicine Research, Northwest Institute of Plateau BiologyAbstract Amid the ongoing trend of global warming, the distribution of habitable areas for Rhododendron is facing significant risks. To investigate the possible spatial distribution of Rhododendron on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau in light of future global warming scenarios, we employed the Maximum entropy model (MaxEnt model) to map its suitable habitat using geographic distribution data and environmental factors projected for 2050s and 2070s, considering three representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, while identifying the key factors influencing their distribution. The results show that: [1] The area under curve (AUC) values of the five Rhododendron were all greater than 0.98, indicated that the model prediction effect was excellent; [2] Isothermality is the most important environmental factor affecting the distribution of Rhododendron (excluding Rhododendron przewalskii). The most important environmental factor for Rhododendron przewalskii is altitude (alt: 51%), with an optimum range of 2700–3300 m, and Rhododendron trichostomum are affected by altitude (alt 18%), with an optimum range of 3200–3900 m. Rhododendron przewalskii (bio12: 21%) and Rhododendron trichostomum(bio12: 19%) are also affected by annual precipitation, and Rhododendron laudandum(bio12: 6%) is less affected by annual precipitation, The optimal amount of precipitation is 400–500 mm as well as 500–800 mm. Rhododendron przewalskii and Rhododendron trichostomum are suitable for survival in high altitude, semi-arid areas [3]. The suitable areas for survival for Rhododendron przewalskii, Rhododendron trichostomum, Rhododendron hypenanthum, and Rhododendron nyingchiense is expanding, while the suitable areas for survival for Rhododendron laudandum is shrinking [4]. The optimal zone for Rhododendron przewalskii is primarily found in the eastern section of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, while suitable areas for survival for the other four Rhododendron species are predominantly located in the southern region of the same plateau. Therefore, these regions will be designated as the primary conservation zones for in-situ preservation. The results of the study provide a basis for the in situ conservation of Rhododendron in response to global warming, relocation conservation, and the construction of nature reserve communities and ecological corridors.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-95016-8RhododendronThe Qinghai-Xizang plateauClimate changeMaxEnt modelPotential distribution |
| spellingShingle | Sen-Xin Chai Li-Ping Ma Zhong-Wu Ma Yu-Tian Lei Ya-Qiong Ye Bo Wang Yuan-Ming Xiao Ying Yang Guo-Ying Zhou Predicting the impact of climate change on the distribution of rhododendron on the qinghai-xizang plateau using maxent model Scientific Reports Rhododendron The Qinghai-Xizang plateau Climate change MaxEnt model Potential distribution |
| title | Predicting the impact of climate change on the distribution of rhododendron on the qinghai-xizang plateau using maxent model |
| title_full | Predicting the impact of climate change on the distribution of rhododendron on the qinghai-xizang plateau using maxent model |
| title_fullStr | Predicting the impact of climate change on the distribution of rhododendron on the qinghai-xizang plateau using maxent model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predicting the impact of climate change on the distribution of rhododendron on the qinghai-xizang plateau using maxent model |
| title_short | Predicting the impact of climate change on the distribution of rhododendron on the qinghai-xizang plateau using maxent model |
| title_sort | predicting the impact of climate change on the distribution of rhododendron on the qinghai xizang plateau using maxent model |
| topic | Rhododendron The Qinghai-Xizang plateau Climate change MaxEnt model Potential distribution |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-95016-8 |
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