Development and Validation of a Simple Risk Score for Undiagnosed Type 2 Diabetes in a Resource-Constrained Setting

Objective. To develop and validate a risk score for detecting cases of undiagnosed diabetes in a resource-constrained country. Methods. Two population-based studies in Peruvian population aged ≥35 years were used in the analysis: the ENINBSC survey (n=2,472) and the CRONICAS Cohort Study (n=2,945)....

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Main Authors: Antonio Bernabe-Ortiz, Liam Smeeth, Robert H. Gilman, Jose R. Sanchez-Abanto, William Checkley, J. Jaime Miranda, CRONICAS Cohort Study Group
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2016-01-01
Series:Journal of Diabetes Research
Online Access:http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2016/8790235
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author Antonio Bernabe-Ortiz
Liam Smeeth
Robert H. Gilman
Jose R. Sanchez-Abanto
William Checkley
J. Jaime Miranda
CRONICAS Cohort Study Group
author_facet Antonio Bernabe-Ortiz
Liam Smeeth
Robert H. Gilman
Jose R. Sanchez-Abanto
William Checkley
J. Jaime Miranda
CRONICAS Cohort Study Group
author_sort Antonio Bernabe-Ortiz
collection DOAJ
description Objective. To develop and validate a risk score for detecting cases of undiagnosed diabetes in a resource-constrained country. Methods. Two population-based studies in Peruvian population aged ≥35 years were used in the analysis: the ENINBSC survey (n=2,472) and the CRONICAS Cohort Study (n=2,945). Fasting plasma glucose ≥7.0 mmol/L was used to diagnose diabetes in both studies. Coefficients for risk score were derived from the ENINBSC data and then the performance was validated using both baseline and follow-up data of the CRONICAS Cohort Study. Results. The prevalence of undiagnosed diabetes was 2.0% in the ENINBSC survey and 2.9% in the CRONICAS Cohort Study. Predictors of undiagnosed diabetes were age, diabetes in first-degree relatives, and waist circumference. Score values ranged from 0 to 4, with an optimal cutoff ≥2 and had a moderate performance when applied in the CRONICAS baseline data (AUC = 0.68; 95% CI: 0.62–0.73; sensitivity 70%; specificity 59%). When predicting incident cases, the AUC was 0.66 (95% CI: 0.61–0.71), with a sensitivity of 69% and specificity of 59%. Conclusions. A simple nonblood based risk score based on age, diabetes in first-degree relatives, and waist circumference can be used as a simple screening tool for undiagnosed and incident cases of diabetes in Peru.
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spelling doaj-art-d412bf487eae44d88f62961ed033130d2025-08-20T03:23:47ZengWileyJournal of Diabetes Research2314-67452314-67532016-01-01201610.1155/2016/87902358790235Development and Validation of a Simple Risk Score for Undiagnosed Type 2 Diabetes in a Resource-Constrained SettingAntonio Bernabe-Ortiz0Liam Smeeth1Robert H. Gilman2Jose R. Sanchez-Abanto3William Checkley4J. Jaime Miranda5CRONICAS Cohort Study Group6CRONICAS Center of Excellence in Chronic Diseases, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, PeruFaculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UKCRONICAS Center of Excellence in Chronic Diseases, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, PeruCentro Nacional de Alimentación y Nutrición, Instituto Nacional de Salud, Lima, PeruCRONICAS Center of Excellence in Chronic Diseases, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, PeruCRONICAS Center of Excellence in Chronic Diseases, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, PeruUniversidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, PeruObjective. To develop and validate a risk score for detecting cases of undiagnosed diabetes in a resource-constrained country. Methods. Two population-based studies in Peruvian population aged ≥35 years were used in the analysis: the ENINBSC survey (n=2,472) and the CRONICAS Cohort Study (n=2,945). Fasting plasma glucose ≥7.0 mmol/L was used to diagnose diabetes in both studies. Coefficients for risk score were derived from the ENINBSC data and then the performance was validated using both baseline and follow-up data of the CRONICAS Cohort Study. Results. The prevalence of undiagnosed diabetes was 2.0% in the ENINBSC survey and 2.9% in the CRONICAS Cohort Study. Predictors of undiagnosed diabetes were age, diabetes in first-degree relatives, and waist circumference. Score values ranged from 0 to 4, with an optimal cutoff ≥2 and had a moderate performance when applied in the CRONICAS baseline data (AUC = 0.68; 95% CI: 0.62–0.73; sensitivity 70%; specificity 59%). When predicting incident cases, the AUC was 0.66 (95% CI: 0.61–0.71), with a sensitivity of 69% and specificity of 59%. Conclusions. A simple nonblood based risk score based on age, diabetes in first-degree relatives, and waist circumference can be used as a simple screening tool for undiagnosed and incident cases of diabetes in Peru.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2016/8790235
spellingShingle Antonio Bernabe-Ortiz
Liam Smeeth
Robert H. Gilman
Jose R. Sanchez-Abanto
William Checkley
J. Jaime Miranda
CRONICAS Cohort Study Group
Development and Validation of a Simple Risk Score for Undiagnosed Type 2 Diabetes in a Resource-Constrained Setting
Journal of Diabetes Research
title Development and Validation of a Simple Risk Score for Undiagnosed Type 2 Diabetes in a Resource-Constrained Setting
title_full Development and Validation of a Simple Risk Score for Undiagnosed Type 2 Diabetes in a Resource-Constrained Setting
title_fullStr Development and Validation of a Simple Risk Score for Undiagnosed Type 2 Diabetes in a Resource-Constrained Setting
title_full_unstemmed Development and Validation of a Simple Risk Score for Undiagnosed Type 2 Diabetes in a Resource-Constrained Setting
title_short Development and Validation of a Simple Risk Score for Undiagnosed Type 2 Diabetes in a Resource-Constrained Setting
title_sort development and validation of a simple risk score for undiagnosed type 2 diabetes in a resource constrained setting
url http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2016/8790235
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