Sensitivity of European blocking to physical parameters in a large ensemble climate model experiment
Abstract The occurrence of blocking weather patterns over Europe is analysed in a large ensemble of simulations of a climate model with perturbed physical parameters. The experiments were performed with HadGEM3‐GC3 for the UK Climate Change Projections, and comprise a set of 15 coupled simulations s...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2025-03-01
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| Series: | Atmospheric Science Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1295 |
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| author | Tim Woollings Marie Drouard David M. H. Sexton Carol F. McSweeney |
| author_facet | Tim Woollings Marie Drouard David M. H. Sexton Carol F. McSweeney |
| author_sort | Tim Woollings |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The occurrence of blocking weather patterns over Europe is analysed in a large ensemble of simulations of a climate model with perturbed physical parameters. The experiments were performed with HadGEM3‐GC3 for the UK Climate Change Projections, and comprise a set of 15 coupled simulations supported by a larger suite of 505 atmosphere‐only simulations. Despite the systematic perturbation of 47 different physical constants in the atmosphere‐only experiments, only three were found to have any impact on European blocking frequencies. These reveal the sensitivity of European blocking to orographic drag in winter and to convective entrainment in summer. However, these sensitivities cannot be traced through to the coupled simulations, due to the smaller and more realistic range of perturbations used and likely also to coupled dynamical effects. Overall, we find that although physical sensitivity to the parameterisations exists, adjustment of the parameters is no replacement for further structural improvement in the representation of these processes in the model. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-d33099b1f23845f495ed61e5c5fd35b8 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 1530-261X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmospheric Science Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-d33099b1f23845f495ed61e5c5fd35b82025-08-20T02:40:40ZengWileyAtmospheric Science Letters1530-261X2025-03-01263n/an/a10.1002/asl.1295Sensitivity of European blocking to physical parameters in a large ensemble climate model experimentTim Woollings0Marie Drouard1David M. H. Sexton2Carol F. McSweeney3Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics University of Oxford Oxford UKAtmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics University of Oxford Oxford UKMet Office Hadley Centre Exeter UKMet Office Hadley Centre Exeter UKAbstract The occurrence of blocking weather patterns over Europe is analysed in a large ensemble of simulations of a climate model with perturbed physical parameters. The experiments were performed with HadGEM3‐GC3 for the UK Climate Change Projections, and comprise a set of 15 coupled simulations supported by a larger suite of 505 atmosphere‐only simulations. Despite the systematic perturbation of 47 different physical constants in the atmosphere‐only experiments, only three were found to have any impact on European blocking frequencies. These reveal the sensitivity of European blocking to orographic drag in winter and to convective entrainment in summer. However, these sensitivities cannot be traced through to the coupled simulations, due to the smaller and more realistic range of perturbations used and likely also to coupled dynamical effects. Overall, we find that although physical sensitivity to the parameterisations exists, adjustment of the parameters is no replacement for further structural improvement in the representation of these processes in the model.https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1295atmospheric blockingconvectiondragperturbed physics ensemble |
| spellingShingle | Tim Woollings Marie Drouard David M. H. Sexton Carol F. McSweeney Sensitivity of European blocking to physical parameters in a large ensemble climate model experiment Atmospheric Science Letters atmospheric blocking convection drag perturbed physics ensemble |
| title | Sensitivity of European blocking to physical parameters in a large ensemble climate model experiment |
| title_full | Sensitivity of European blocking to physical parameters in a large ensemble climate model experiment |
| title_fullStr | Sensitivity of European blocking to physical parameters in a large ensemble climate model experiment |
| title_full_unstemmed | Sensitivity of European blocking to physical parameters in a large ensemble climate model experiment |
| title_short | Sensitivity of European blocking to physical parameters in a large ensemble climate model experiment |
| title_sort | sensitivity of european blocking to physical parameters in a large ensemble climate model experiment |
| topic | atmospheric blocking convection drag perturbed physics ensemble |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1295 |
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