Development and validation of a mortality predictive model for ICU patients with primary pulmonary hypertension
Abstract There is a lack of an effective prognostic model for predicting outcomes in patients with primary pulmonary hypertension (PPH). A retrospective analysis was conducted on PPH patients from MIMIC and eICU databases. A predictive model was developed to assess mortality risk. The Consistency In...
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Nature Portfolio
2024-12-01
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-83139-3 |
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| author | Chao-Yong Zhang Yao-Shi Hu Zhong-Yuan Meng Chuang-Hong Lu Yu-Fei Xie Qin Yu Lan-Xian Mai Zhi-Yu Zeng |
| author_facet | Chao-Yong Zhang Yao-Shi Hu Zhong-Yuan Meng Chuang-Hong Lu Yu-Fei Xie Qin Yu Lan-Xian Mai Zhi-Yu Zeng |
| author_sort | Chao-Yong Zhang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract There is a lack of an effective prognostic model for predicting outcomes in patients with primary pulmonary hypertension (PPH). A retrospective analysis was conducted on PPH patients from MIMIC and eICU databases. A predictive model was developed to assess mortality risk. The Consistency Index (C-index) and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve were utilized to assess the overall performance of the model and its discriminatory capacity. The model’s calibration and clinical applicability were assessed through calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA). The nomogram was employed for visual representation of the model. The study included 420 patients, 260 in the development group, 104 in the internal validation group and 56 in the external validation group. The predictive model’s risk factors included age, respiratory rate, red blood cell distribution width, glucose, and SAPS II. The model demonstrated C-indexes of 0.736 and 0.696 in the development and internal validation groups, respectively. The ROC curves for the development, internal validation and external validation groups demonstrated robust discriminatory capabilities. The calibration curves indicated a slope close to 1, suggesting good calibration of the model. Additionally, DCA analysis revealed the model offered significant clinical benefits across a wide range of thresholds. The model showed good discrimination ability, accuracy and clinical application value in predicting the prognosis of patients with PPH. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-d3046bc914dd400eb539639d9fc0a916 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
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| spelling | doaj-art-d3046bc914dd400eb539639d9fc0a9162025-08-20T02:43:24ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222024-12-0114111310.1038/s41598-024-83139-3Development and validation of a mortality predictive model for ICU patients with primary pulmonary hypertensionChao-Yong Zhang0Yao-Shi Hu1Zhong-Yuan Meng2Chuang-Hong Lu3Yu-Fei Xie4Qin Yu5Lan-Xian Mai6Zhi-Yu Zeng7Department of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical UniversityDepartment of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical UniversityGuangxi Key Laboratory of Precision Medicine in Cardio-Cerebrovascular Diseases Control and Prevention, Guangxi Clinical Research Center for Cardio-Cerebrovascular DiseasesDepartment of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical UniversityGuangxi Key Laboratory of Precision Medicine in Cardio-Cerebrovascular Diseases Control and Prevention, Guangxi Clinical Research Center for Cardio-Cerebrovascular DiseasesDepartment of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical UniversityDepartment of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical UniversityDepartment of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical UniversityAbstract There is a lack of an effective prognostic model for predicting outcomes in patients with primary pulmonary hypertension (PPH). A retrospective analysis was conducted on PPH patients from MIMIC and eICU databases. A predictive model was developed to assess mortality risk. The Consistency Index (C-index) and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve were utilized to assess the overall performance of the model and its discriminatory capacity. The model’s calibration and clinical applicability were assessed through calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA). The nomogram was employed for visual representation of the model. The study included 420 patients, 260 in the development group, 104 in the internal validation group and 56 in the external validation group. The predictive model’s risk factors included age, respiratory rate, red blood cell distribution width, glucose, and SAPS II. The model demonstrated C-indexes of 0.736 and 0.696 in the development and internal validation groups, respectively. The ROC curves for the development, internal validation and external validation groups demonstrated robust discriminatory capabilities. The calibration curves indicated a slope close to 1, suggesting good calibration of the model. Additionally, DCA analysis revealed the model offered significant clinical benefits across a wide range of thresholds. The model showed good discrimination ability, accuracy and clinical application value in predicting the prognosis of patients with PPH.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-83139-3Primary pulmonary hypertensionPredictive modelPublic database |
| spellingShingle | Chao-Yong Zhang Yao-Shi Hu Zhong-Yuan Meng Chuang-Hong Lu Yu-Fei Xie Qin Yu Lan-Xian Mai Zhi-Yu Zeng Development and validation of a mortality predictive model for ICU patients with primary pulmonary hypertension Scientific Reports Primary pulmonary hypertension Predictive model Public database |
| title | Development and validation of a mortality predictive model for ICU patients with primary pulmonary hypertension |
| title_full | Development and validation of a mortality predictive model for ICU patients with primary pulmonary hypertension |
| title_fullStr | Development and validation of a mortality predictive model for ICU patients with primary pulmonary hypertension |
| title_full_unstemmed | Development and validation of a mortality predictive model for ICU patients with primary pulmonary hypertension |
| title_short | Development and validation of a mortality predictive model for ICU patients with primary pulmonary hypertension |
| title_sort | development and validation of a mortality predictive model for icu patients with primary pulmonary hypertension |
| topic | Primary pulmonary hypertension Predictive model Public database |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-83139-3 |
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