Regime Shift in Arctic Ocean Sea‐Ice Extent
Abstract A regime shift is an abrupt, substantial, and persistent change in the state of a system. We show that a regime shift in the September Arctic sea‐ice extent (SIE) occurred in 2007. Before 2007, September SIE was declining approximately linearly. In September 2007, SIE had its largest year‐t...
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| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2025-04-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL114546 |
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| author | Harry L. Stern |
| author_facet | Harry L. Stern |
| author_sort | Harry L. Stern |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract A regime shift is an abrupt, substantial, and persistent change in the state of a system. We show that a regime shift in the September Arctic sea‐ice extent (SIE) occurred in 2007. Before 2007, September SIE was declining approximately linearly. In September 2007, SIE had its largest year‐to‐year drop in the entire 46‐year satellite record (1979–2024). Since 2007, September SIE has fluctuated but exhibits no long‐term trend. The regime shift in 2007 was caused by significant export and melt of older and thicker sea ice over the previous 2–3 years, as documented in other studies. We test alternatives to the traditional linear model of declining September SIE, and discuss possible explanations for the lack of a trend since 2007. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-d2ff17af50b24de98141c003fb9c05d0 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-04-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-d2ff17af50b24de98141c003fb9c05d02025-08-20T02:56:35ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072025-04-01528n/an/a10.1029/2024GL114546Regime Shift in Arctic Ocean Sea‐Ice ExtentHarry L. Stern0Polar Science Center Applied Physics Laboratory University of Washington Seattle WA USAAbstract A regime shift is an abrupt, substantial, and persistent change in the state of a system. We show that a regime shift in the September Arctic sea‐ice extent (SIE) occurred in 2007. Before 2007, September SIE was declining approximately linearly. In September 2007, SIE had its largest year‐to‐year drop in the entire 46‐year satellite record (1979–2024). Since 2007, September SIE has fluctuated but exhibits no long‐term trend. The regime shift in 2007 was caused by significant export and melt of older and thicker sea ice over the previous 2–3 years, as documented in other studies. We test alternatives to the traditional linear model of declining September SIE, and discuss possible explanations for the lack of a trend since 2007.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL114546Arctic sea‐ice extentregime shift |
| spellingShingle | Harry L. Stern Regime Shift in Arctic Ocean Sea‐Ice Extent Geophysical Research Letters Arctic sea‐ice extent regime shift |
| title | Regime Shift in Arctic Ocean Sea‐Ice Extent |
| title_full | Regime Shift in Arctic Ocean Sea‐Ice Extent |
| title_fullStr | Regime Shift in Arctic Ocean Sea‐Ice Extent |
| title_full_unstemmed | Regime Shift in Arctic Ocean Sea‐Ice Extent |
| title_short | Regime Shift in Arctic Ocean Sea‐Ice Extent |
| title_sort | regime shift in arctic ocean sea ice extent |
| topic | Arctic sea‐ice extent regime shift |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL114546 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT harrylstern regimeshiftinarcticoceanseaiceextent |