Inter-Model Spread in Representing the Impacts of ENSO on the South China Spring Rainfall in CMIP6 Models
A major challenge for climate system models in simulating the impacts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the interannual variations of East Asian rainfall anomalies is the wide inter-model spread of outputs, which causes considerable uncertainty in physical mechanism understanding and short-t...
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2024-10-01
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| author | Xin Yin Xiaofei Wu Hailin Niu Kaiqing Yang Linglong Yu |
| author_facet | Xin Yin Xiaofei Wu Hailin Niu Kaiqing Yang Linglong Yu |
| author_sort | Xin Yin |
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| description | A major challenge for climate system models in simulating the impacts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the interannual variations of East Asian rainfall anomalies is the wide inter-model spread of outputs, which causes considerable uncertainty in physical mechanism understanding and short-term climate prediction. This study investigates the fidelity of 40 models from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) in representing the impacts of ENSO on South China Spring Rainfall (SCSR) during the ENSO decaying spring. The response of SCSR to ENSO, as well as the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO), is quite different among the models; some models even simulate opposite SCSR anomalies compared to the observations. However, the models capturing the ENSO-related warm SSTAs over TIO tend to simulate a better SCSR-ENSO relationship, which is much closer to observation. Therefore, models are grouped based on the simulated TIO SSTAs to explore the modulating processes of the TIO SSTAs in ENSO affecting SCSR anomalies. Comparing analysis suggests that the warm TIO SSTA can force the equatorial north–south antisymmetric circulation in the lower troposphere, which is conducive to the westward extension and maintenance of the western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC). In addition, the TIO SSTA enhances the upper tropospheric East Asian subtropical westerly jet, leading to anomalous divergence over South China. Thus, the westward extension and strengthening of WNPAC can transport sufficient water vapor for South China, which is associated with the ascending motion caused by the upper tropospheric divergence, leading to the abnormal SCSR. |
| format | Article |
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| institution | OA Journals |
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| spelling | doaj-art-d264e933db0e40adb3338e5e54daf1912025-08-20T02:11:09ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332024-10-011510119910.3390/atmos15101199Inter-Model Spread in Representing the Impacts of ENSO on the South China Spring Rainfall in CMIP6 ModelsXin Yin0Xiaofei Wu1Hailin Niu2Kaiqing Yang3Linglong Yu4Yuyao Meteorological Bureau, Ningbo 315400, ChinaPlateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, ChinaYuyao Meteorological Bureau, Ningbo 315400, ChinaPlateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, ChinaPlateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, ChinaA major challenge for climate system models in simulating the impacts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the interannual variations of East Asian rainfall anomalies is the wide inter-model spread of outputs, which causes considerable uncertainty in physical mechanism understanding and short-term climate prediction. This study investigates the fidelity of 40 models from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) in representing the impacts of ENSO on South China Spring Rainfall (SCSR) during the ENSO decaying spring. The response of SCSR to ENSO, as well as the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO), is quite different among the models; some models even simulate opposite SCSR anomalies compared to the observations. However, the models capturing the ENSO-related warm SSTAs over TIO tend to simulate a better SCSR-ENSO relationship, which is much closer to observation. Therefore, models are grouped based on the simulated TIO SSTAs to explore the modulating processes of the TIO SSTAs in ENSO affecting SCSR anomalies. Comparing analysis suggests that the warm TIO SSTA can force the equatorial north–south antisymmetric circulation in the lower troposphere, which is conducive to the westward extension and maintenance of the western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC). In addition, the TIO SSTA enhances the upper tropospheric East Asian subtropical westerly jet, leading to anomalous divergence over South China. Thus, the westward extension and strengthening of WNPAC can transport sufficient water vapor for South China, which is associated with the ascending motion caused by the upper tropospheric divergence, leading to the abnormal SCSR.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/15/10/1199South China Spring RainfallEl Niño–Southern OscillationCMIP6interannual variations |
| spellingShingle | Xin Yin Xiaofei Wu Hailin Niu Kaiqing Yang Linglong Yu Inter-Model Spread in Representing the Impacts of ENSO on the South China Spring Rainfall in CMIP6 Models Atmosphere South China Spring Rainfall El Niño–Southern Oscillation CMIP6 interannual variations |
| title | Inter-Model Spread in Representing the Impacts of ENSO on the South China Spring Rainfall in CMIP6 Models |
| title_full | Inter-Model Spread in Representing the Impacts of ENSO on the South China Spring Rainfall in CMIP6 Models |
| title_fullStr | Inter-Model Spread in Representing the Impacts of ENSO on the South China Spring Rainfall in CMIP6 Models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Inter-Model Spread in Representing the Impacts of ENSO on the South China Spring Rainfall in CMIP6 Models |
| title_short | Inter-Model Spread in Representing the Impacts of ENSO on the South China Spring Rainfall in CMIP6 Models |
| title_sort | inter model spread in representing the impacts of enso on the south china spring rainfall in cmip6 models |
| topic | South China Spring Rainfall El Niño–Southern Oscillation CMIP6 interannual variations |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/15/10/1199 |
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