MODELING OF WORLD'S SYSTEMICALLY IMPORTANT ECONOMIES IMPACT ON THE DYNAMICS OF MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS IN UKRAINE

This paper develops the vector autoregression model of the Ukraine’s economy for exploring the dynamics of key indicators of the domestic economy in response to the shocks from systemically important economies. The foreign variables in the model are growth rates of real GDP, consumer price indices i...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Author: O. Bazhenova
Format: Article
Language:deu
Published: Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv 2015-03-01
Series:Вісник Київського національного університету імені Тараса Шевченка. Серія Економіка
Subjects:
Online Access:http://bulletin-econom.univ.kiev.ua/wp-content/plugins/download-attachments/includes/download.php?id=1013
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1850174107428061184
author O. Bazhenova
author_facet O. Bazhenova
author_sort O. Bazhenova
collection DOAJ
description This paper develops the vector autoregression model of the Ukraine’s economy for exploring the dynamics of key indicators of the domestic economy in response to the shocks from systemically important economies. The foreign variables in the model are growth rates of real GDP, consumer price indices in the advanced economies and in countries of emerging and developing Asia and oil price. The results suggest that the shocks from the “large” economies are absorbed by the domestic economy for a long time. A significant part of the variability of real GDP growth index in Ukraine is due to external factors. Inflation in advanced countries has the most significant influence on this variability (among other external shocks) that confirms inflation import from these economies. At the same time the price of oil does not significantly contribute to the explanation of the mentioned variability. Given the euro area share increase in foreign trade and China’s impact on metal market conditions this paper also explores the influence of these economies’ indicators (notably production indices and consumer price indices) on Ukraine’s economy.
format Article
id doaj-art-d20c27ff1e794914be5818eb441dfc95
institution OA Journals
issn 1728-2667
2079-908X
language deu
publishDate 2015-03-01
publisher Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv
record_format Article
series Вісник Київського національного університету імені Тараса Шевченка. Серія Економіка
spelling doaj-art-d20c27ff1e794914be5818eb441dfc952025-08-20T02:19:42ZdeuTaras Shevchenko National University of KyivВісник Київського національного університету імені Тараса Шевченка. Серія Економіка1728-26672079-908X2015-03-012167364310.17721/1728-2667.2015/167-2/6MODELING OF WORLD'S SYSTEMICALLY IMPORTANT ECONOMIES IMPACT ON THE DYNAMICS OF MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS IN UKRAINEO. Bazhenova0 Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Kyiv, Ukraine This paper develops the vector autoregression model of the Ukraine’s economy for exploring the dynamics of key indicators of the domestic economy in response to the shocks from systemically important economies. The foreign variables in the model are growth rates of real GDP, consumer price indices in the advanced economies and in countries of emerging and developing Asia and oil price. The results suggest that the shocks from the “large” economies are absorbed by the domestic economy for a long time. A significant part of the variability of real GDP growth index in Ukraine is due to external factors. Inflation in advanced countries has the most significant influence on this variability (among other external shocks) that confirms inflation import from these economies. At the same time the price of oil does not significantly contribute to the explanation of the mentioned variability. Given the euro area share increase in foreign trade and China’s impact on metal market conditions this paper also explores the influence of these economies’ indicators (notably production indices and consumer price indices) on Ukraine’s economy.http://bulletin-econom.univ.kiev.ua/wp-content/plugins/download-attachments/includes/download.php?id=1013external sustainabilitysystemically important economiesvector autoregression modelvariability of the real gross domestic product index
spellingShingle O. Bazhenova
MODELING OF WORLD'S SYSTEMICALLY IMPORTANT ECONOMIES IMPACT ON THE DYNAMICS OF MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS IN UKRAINE
Вісник Київського національного університету імені Тараса Шевченка. Серія Економіка
external sustainability
systemically important economies
vector autoregression model
variability of the real gross domestic product index
title MODELING OF WORLD'S SYSTEMICALLY IMPORTANT ECONOMIES IMPACT ON THE DYNAMICS OF MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS IN UKRAINE
title_full MODELING OF WORLD'S SYSTEMICALLY IMPORTANT ECONOMIES IMPACT ON THE DYNAMICS OF MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS IN UKRAINE
title_fullStr MODELING OF WORLD'S SYSTEMICALLY IMPORTANT ECONOMIES IMPACT ON THE DYNAMICS OF MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS IN UKRAINE
title_full_unstemmed MODELING OF WORLD'S SYSTEMICALLY IMPORTANT ECONOMIES IMPACT ON THE DYNAMICS OF MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS IN UKRAINE
title_short MODELING OF WORLD'S SYSTEMICALLY IMPORTANT ECONOMIES IMPACT ON THE DYNAMICS OF MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS IN UKRAINE
title_sort modeling of world s systemically important economies impact on the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators in ukraine
topic external sustainability
systemically important economies
vector autoregression model
variability of the real gross domestic product index
url http://bulletin-econom.univ.kiev.ua/wp-content/plugins/download-attachments/includes/download.php?id=1013
work_keys_str_mv AT obazhenova modelingofworldssystemicallyimportanteconomiesimpactonthedynamicsofmacroeconomicindicatorsinukraine