MODELING OF WORLD'S SYSTEMICALLY IMPORTANT ECONOMIES IMPACT ON THE DYNAMICS OF MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS IN UKRAINE
This paper develops the vector autoregression model of the Ukraine’s economy for exploring the dynamics of key indicators of the domestic economy in response to the shocks from systemically important economies. The foreign variables in the model are growth rates of real GDP, consumer price indices i...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | deu |
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Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv
2015-03-01
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| Series: | Вісник Київського національного університету імені Тараса Шевченка. Серія Економіка |
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| Online Access: | http://bulletin-econom.univ.kiev.ua/wp-content/plugins/download-attachments/includes/download.php?id=1013 |
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| author | O. Bazhenova |
| author_facet | O. Bazhenova |
| author_sort | O. Bazhenova |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This paper develops the vector autoregression model of the Ukraine’s economy for exploring the dynamics of key indicators of the domestic economy in response to the shocks from systemically important economies. The foreign variables in the model are growth rates of real GDP, consumer price indices in the advanced economies and in countries of emerging and developing Asia and oil price. The results suggest that the shocks from the “large” economies are absorbed by the domestic economy for a long time. A significant part of the variability of real GDP growth index in Ukraine is due to external factors. Inflation in advanced countries has the most significant influence on this variability (among other external shocks) that confirms inflation import from these economies. At the same time the price of oil does not significantly contribute to the explanation of the mentioned variability. Given the euro area share increase in foreign trade and China’s impact on metal market conditions this paper also explores the influence of these economies’ indicators (notably production indices and consumer price indices) on Ukraine’s economy. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-d20c27ff1e794914be5818eb441dfc95 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1728-2667 2079-908X |
| language | deu |
| publishDate | 2015-03-01 |
| publisher | Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Вісник Київського національного університету імені Тараса Шевченка. Серія Економіка |
| spelling | doaj-art-d20c27ff1e794914be5818eb441dfc952025-08-20T02:19:42ZdeuTaras Shevchenko National University of KyivВісник Київського національного університету імені Тараса Шевченка. Серія Економіка1728-26672079-908X2015-03-012167364310.17721/1728-2667.2015/167-2/6MODELING OF WORLD'S SYSTEMICALLY IMPORTANT ECONOMIES IMPACT ON THE DYNAMICS OF MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS IN UKRAINEO. Bazhenova0 Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Kyiv, Ukraine This paper develops the vector autoregression model of the Ukraine’s economy for exploring the dynamics of key indicators of the domestic economy in response to the shocks from systemically important economies. The foreign variables in the model are growth rates of real GDP, consumer price indices in the advanced economies and in countries of emerging and developing Asia and oil price. The results suggest that the shocks from the “large” economies are absorbed by the domestic economy for a long time. A significant part of the variability of real GDP growth index in Ukraine is due to external factors. Inflation in advanced countries has the most significant influence on this variability (among other external shocks) that confirms inflation import from these economies. At the same time the price of oil does not significantly contribute to the explanation of the mentioned variability. Given the euro area share increase in foreign trade and China’s impact on metal market conditions this paper also explores the influence of these economies’ indicators (notably production indices and consumer price indices) on Ukraine’s economy.http://bulletin-econom.univ.kiev.ua/wp-content/plugins/download-attachments/includes/download.php?id=1013external sustainabilitysystemically important economiesvector autoregression modelvariability of the real gross domestic product index |
| spellingShingle | O. Bazhenova MODELING OF WORLD'S SYSTEMICALLY IMPORTANT ECONOMIES IMPACT ON THE DYNAMICS OF MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS IN UKRAINE Вісник Київського національного університету імені Тараса Шевченка. Серія Економіка external sustainability systemically important economies vector autoregression model variability of the real gross domestic product index |
| title | MODELING OF WORLD'S SYSTEMICALLY IMPORTANT ECONOMIES IMPACT ON THE DYNAMICS OF MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS IN UKRAINE |
| title_full | MODELING OF WORLD'S SYSTEMICALLY IMPORTANT ECONOMIES IMPACT ON THE DYNAMICS OF MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS IN UKRAINE |
| title_fullStr | MODELING OF WORLD'S SYSTEMICALLY IMPORTANT ECONOMIES IMPACT ON THE DYNAMICS OF MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS IN UKRAINE |
| title_full_unstemmed | MODELING OF WORLD'S SYSTEMICALLY IMPORTANT ECONOMIES IMPACT ON THE DYNAMICS OF MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS IN UKRAINE |
| title_short | MODELING OF WORLD'S SYSTEMICALLY IMPORTANT ECONOMIES IMPACT ON THE DYNAMICS OF MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS IN UKRAINE |
| title_sort | modeling of world s systemically important economies impact on the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators in ukraine |
| topic | external sustainability systemically important economies vector autoregression model variability of the real gross domestic product index |
| url | http://bulletin-econom.univ.kiev.ua/wp-content/plugins/download-attachments/includes/download.php?id=1013 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT obazhenova modelingofworldssystemicallyimportanteconomiesimpactonthedynamicsofmacroeconomicindicatorsinukraine |