Power System Reliability Assessment with Quantification of Demand Response Uncertainty Based on Advanced Sigmoid Cloud Model

Demand response (DR) is usually regarded as a valuable balancing and reserve resource that contributes to maintaining power balance and integrating renewable energies. However, the price elasticity curve of the DR resources is influenced by consumers' behavioral uncertainty and therefore...

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Main Authors: Bo Hu, Yue Sun, Wei Huang, Changzheng Shao, Tao Niu, Xin Cheng, Kaigui Xie
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: China electric power research institute 2025-01-01
Series:CSEE Journal of Power and Energy Systems
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Online Access:https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10026207/
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author Bo Hu
Yue Sun
Wei Huang
Changzheng Shao
Tao Niu
Xin Cheng
Kaigui Xie
author_facet Bo Hu
Yue Sun
Wei Huang
Changzheng Shao
Tao Niu
Xin Cheng
Kaigui Xie
author_sort Bo Hu
collection DOAJ
description Demand response (DR) is usually regarded as a valuable balancing and reserve resource that contributes to maintaining power balance and integrating renewable energies. However, the price elasticity curve of the DR resources is influenced by consumers&#x0027; behavioral uncertainty and therefore is difficult to predict. Consequently, additional risk may be introduced to composite power system reliability. Considering that, this paper investigates a reliability assessment of composite power system considering both the merits and potential uncertainty involved in the DR. First, the psychological behavior and consumption behavior of consumers are characterized in the DR modeling. A novel DR uncertainty index (denoted as <tex>$I^{U}$</tex>) measures uncertainty of consumer&#x0027;s behavior when electricity price changes. Then, an advanced Sigmoid cloud model is proposed to depict the comprehensive uncertain mapping relationships between price and <tex>$I^{U}$</tex>. Moreover, an improved demand elasticity matrix is proposed, in which price-quantity elastic coefficients are modified by the <tex>$I^{U}$</tex> index. Finally, a reliability assessment framework for a composite power system is developed considering the uncertain price-based DR model and a k-means algorithm is used to accelerate the assessment process. Accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed method are investigated through the case study on RBTS, RTS79 and RTS96 reliability test systems.
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issn 2096-0042
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publishDate 2025-01-01
publisher China electric power research institute
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series CSEE Journal of Power and Energy Systems
spelling doaj-art-d1f3fe6de701493e8351c7e9e6fb74862025-08-20T03:11:17ZengChina electric power research instituteCSEE Journal of Power and Energy Systems2096-00422025-01-011131347135710.17775/CSEEJPES.2021.0150010026207Power System Reliability Assessment with Quantification of Demand Response Uncertainty Based on Advanced Sigmoid Cloud ModelBo Hu0Yue Sun1Wei Huang2Changzheng Shao3Tao Niu4Xin Cheng5Kaigui Xie6Chongqing University,State Key Laboratory of Power Transmission Equipment &#x0026; System Security and new technology,Chongqing,China,400044China Yangtze Power Co., Ltd,Yichang,China,443000Chongqing University,State Key Laboratory of Power Transmission Equipment &#x0026; System Security and new technology,Chongqing,China,400044Chongqing University,State Key Laboratory of Power Transmission Equipment &#x0026; System Security and new technology,Chongqing,China,400044Chongqing University,State Key Laboratory of Power Transmission Equipment &#x0026; System Security and new technology,Chongqing,China,400044Chongqing University,State Key Laboratory of Power Transmission Equipment &#x0026; System Security and new technology,Chongqing,China,400044Chongqing University,State Key Laboratory of Power Transmission Equipment &#x0026; System Security and new technology,Chongqing,China,400044Demand response (DR) is usually regarded as a valuable balancing and reserve resource that contributes to maintaining power balance and integrating renewable energies. However, the price elasticity curve of the DR resources is influenced by consumers&#x0027; behavioral uncertainty and therefore is difficult to predict. Consequently, additional risk may be introduced to composite power system reliability. Considering that, this paper investigates a reliability assessment of composite power system considering both the merits and potential uncertainty involved in the DR. First, the psychological behavior and consumption behavior of consumers are characterized in the DR modeling. A novel DR uncertainty index (denoted as <tex>$I^{U}$</tex>) measures uncertainty of consumer&#x0027;s behavior when electricity price changes. Then, an advanced Sigmoid cloud model is proposed to depict the comprehensive uncertain mapping relationships between price and <tex>$I^{U}$</tex>. Moreover, an improved demand elasticity matrix is proposed, in which price-quantity elastic coefficients are modified by the <tex>$I^{U}$</tex> index. Finally, a reliability assessment framework for a composite power system is developed considering the uncertain price-based DR model and a k-means algorithm is used to accelerate the assessment process. Accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed method are investigated through the case study on RBTS, RTS79 and RTS96 reliability test systems.https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10026207/Advanced Sigmoid cloud modeldemand response uncertaintypower system reliabilityprice elasticity of demand
spellingShingle Bo Hu
Yue Sun
Wei Huang
Changzheng Shao
Tao Niu
Xin Cheng
Kaigui Xie
Power System Reliability Assessment with Quantification of Demand Response Uncertainty Based on Advanced Sigmoid Cloud Model
CSEE Journal of Power and Energy Systems
Advanced Sigmoid cloud model
demand response uncertainty
power system reliability
price elasticity of demand
title Power System Reliability Assessment with Quantification of Demand Response Uncertainty Based on Advanced Sigmoid Cloud Model
title_full Power System Reliability Assessment with Quantification of Demand Response Uncertainty Based on Advanced Sigmoid Cloud Model
title_fullStr Power System Reliability Assessment with Quantification of Demand Response Uncertainty Based on Advanced Sigmoid Cloud Model
title_full_unstemmed Power System Reliability Assessment with Quantification of Demand Response Uncertainty Based on Advanced Sigmoid Cloud Model
title_short Power System Reliability Assessment with Quantification of Demand Response Uncertainty Based on Advanced Sigmoid Cloud Model
title_sort power system reliability assessment with quantification of demand response uncertainty based on advanced sigmoid cloud model
topic Advanced Sigmoid cloud model
demand response uncertainty
power system reliability
price elasticity of demand
url https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10026207/
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