Enhancing ecological uncertainty predictions in pollution control games through dynamic Bayesian updating
Abstract This study presents a dynamic Bayesian game model designed to improve predictions of ecological uncertainties leading to natural disasters. It incorporates historical signal data on ecological indicators. Participants, acting as decision-makers, receive signals about an unknown parameter-ob...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2024-06-01
|
| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-63234-1 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1841544624260251648 |
|---|---|
| author | Jiangjing Zhou Ovanes Petrosian Hongwei Gao |
| author_facet | Jiangjing Zhou Ovanes Petrosian Hongwei Gao |
| author_sort | Jiangjing Zhou |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract This study presents a dynamic Bayesian game model designed to improve predictions of ecological uncertainties leading to natural disasters. It incorporates historical signal data on ecological indicators. Participants, acting as decision-makers, receive signals about an unknown parameter-observations of a random variable’s realization values before a specific time, offering insights into ecological uncertainties. The essence of the model lies in its dynamic Bayesian updating, where beliefs about unknown parameters are refined with each new signal, enhancing predictive accuracy. The main focus of our paper is to theoretically validate this approach, by presenting a number of theorems that prove its precision and efficiency in improving uncertainty estimations. Simulation results validate the model’s effectiveness in various scenarios, highlighting its role in refining natural disaster forecasts. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-d1d62fb4e26e485b85626650047ce987 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-06-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj-art-d1d62fb4e26e485b85626650047ce9872025-01-12T12:24:50ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222024-06-0114111410.1038/s41598-024-63234-1Enhancing ecological uncertainty predictions in pollution control games through dynamic Bayesian updatingJiangjing Zhou0Ovanes Petrosian1Hongwei Gao2Saint Petersburg State UniversitySaint Petersburg State UniversitySchool of Mathematics and Statistics, Qingdao UniversityAbstract This study presents a dynamic Bayesian game model designed to improve predictions of ecological uncertainties leading to natural disasters. It incorporates historical signal data on ecological indicators. Participants, acting as decision-makers, receive signals about an unknown parameter-observations of a random variable’s realization values before a specific time, offering insights into ecological uncertainties. The essence of the model lies in its dynamic Bayesian updating, where beliefs about unknown parameters are refined with each new signal, enhancing predictive accuracy. The main focus of our paper is to theoretically validate this approach, by presenting a number of theorems that prove its precision and efficiency in improving uncertainty estimations. Simulation results validate the model’s effectiveness in various scenarios, highlighting its role in refining natural disaster forecasts.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-63234-1 |
| spellingShingle | Jiangjing Zhou Ovanes Petrosian Hongwei Gao Enhancing ecological uncertainty predictions in pollution control games through dynamic Bayesian updating Scientific Reports |
| title | Enhancing ecological uncertainty predictions in pollution control games through dynamic Bayesian updating |
| title_full | Enhancing ecological uncertainty predictions in pollution control games through dynamic Bayesian updating |
| title_fullStr | Enhancing ecological uncertainty predictions in pollution control games through dynamic Bayesian updating |
| title_full_unstemmed | Enhancing ecological uncertainty predictions in pollution control games through dynamic Bayesian updating |
| title_short | Enhancing ecological uncertainty predictions in pollution control games through dynamic Bayesian updating |
| title_sort | enhancing ecological uncertainty predictions in pollution control games through dynamic bayesian updating |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-63234-1 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT jiangjingzhou enhancingecologicaluncertaintypredictionsinpollutioncontrolgamesthroughdynamicbayesianupdating AT ovanespetrosian enhancingecologicaluncertaintypredictionsinpollutioncontrolgamesthroughdynamicbayesianupdating AT hongweigao enhancingecologicaluncertaintypredictionsinpollutioncontrolgamesthroughdynamicbayesianupdating |