Quantifying the effects of driving factors and runoff sensitivity on runoff variation based on the Budyko equation

Changes in driving factors can directly impact runoff variation and indirectly alter it through the runoff sensitivity coefficients. This study has broken through the problem of ignoring the dynamic change of runoff sensitivity coefficients in previous studies, and attributed the runoff change to ru...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Ling Jia, Zuirong Niu, Dongyuan Sun, Shuanghe Liang
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2025-06-01
Series:Ecological Indicators
Subjects:
Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25004856
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1849717810036473856
author Ling Jia
Zuirong Niu
Dongyuan Sun
Shuanghe Liang
author_facet Ling Jia
Zuirong Niu
Dongyuan Sun
Shuanghe Liang
author_sort Ling Jia
collection DOAJ
description Changes in driving factors can directly impact runoff variation and indirectly alter it through the runoff sensitivity coefficients. This study has broken through the problem of ignoring the dynamic change of runoff sensitivity coefficients in previous studies, and attributed the runoff change to runoff sensitivity coefficients and driving factors. The contribution rate of runoff sensitivity coefficients to runoff change was quantified based on the improved Budyko equation. The results showed that: (1) From 1960 to 2022, the annual runoff of the main rivers in Gansu Province decreased from the southeast to the northwest, with a range of 9.1 mm- 309.6 mm. The number of significantly reduced rivers accounted for 75 %. The mutation years of annual runoff were mainly concentrated between 1970 and 2010. (2) From 1960 to 2022, the annual precipitation decreased from southeast to northwest, the annual potential evapotranspiration increased from southeast to northwest, and the annual temperature decreased from northeast to southwest. Land use conversion was frequent between 1980 and 2020, with a total conversion area of 30 %. (3) The runoff sensitivity coefficients had spatial and temporal heterogeneity. Precipitation and the characteristic parameters of the underlying surface were the main driving factors for the change of runoff sensitivity coefficients in most rivers. (4) In addition to the Dang River, Shiyang River, and Datong River, the primary factor contributing to the alteration in runoff in the remaining nine rivers was the impact of runoff sensitivity coefficients. Human activities were the main reason for the change of runoff in other rivers except for the Shule River, Dang River, and Heihe River Basin. The findings contribute to grasping the response of streamflow alterations to the driving factors and offer a new insight to effectively understand the mechanism of runoff variation under the changing environments.
format Article
id doaj-art-d1be981a84d944c2a1c24cec19c99540
institution DOAJ
issn 1470-160X
language English
publishDate 2025-06-01
publisher Elsevier
record_format Article
series Ecological Indicators
spelling doaj-art-d1be981a84d944c2a1c24cec19c995402025-08-20T03:12:32ZengElsevierEcological Indicators1470-160X2025-06-0117511355510.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113555Quantifying the effects of driving factors and runoff sensitivity on runoff variation based on the Budyko equationLing Jia0Zuirong Niu1Dongyuan Sun2Shuanghe Liang3College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, ChinaCorresponding author at: College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Gansu Agricultural University, 1# Yingmen Village, Lanzhou, Gansu 730070, China.; College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, ChinaCollege of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, ChinaCollege of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, ChinaChanges in driving factors can directly impact runoff variation and indirectly alter it through the runoff sensitivity coefficients. This study has broken through the problem of ignoring the dynamic change of runoff sensitivity coefficients in previous studies, and attributed the runoff change to runoff sensitivity coefficients and driving factors. The contribution rate of runoff sensitivity coefficients to runoff change was quantified based on the improved Budyko equation. The results showed that: (1) From 1960 to 2022, the annual runoff of the main rivers in Gansu Province decreased from the southeast to the northwest, with a range of 9.1 mm- 309.6 mm. The number of significantly reduced rivers accounted for 75 %. The mutation years of annual runoff were mainly concentrated between 1970 and 2010. (2) From 1960 to 2022, the annual precipitation decreased from southeast to northwest, the annual potential evapotranspiration increased from southeast to northwest, and the annual temperature decreased from northeast to southwest. Land use conversion was frequent between 1980 and 2020, with a total conversion area of 30 %. (3) The runoff sensitivity coefficients had spatial and temporal heterogeneity. Precipitation and the characteristic parameters of the underlying surface were the main driving factors for the change of runoff sensitivity coefficients in most rivers. (4) In addition to the Dang River, Shiyang River, and Datong River, the primary factor contributing to the alteration in runoff in the remaining nine rivers was the impact of runoff sensitivity coefficients. Human activities were the main reason for the change of runoff in other rivers except for the Shule River, Dang River, and Heihe River Basin. The findings contribute to grasping the response of streamflow alterations to the driving factors and offer a new insight to effectively understand the mechanism of runoff variation under the changing environments.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25004856Runoff sensitivityImproved Budyko equationGansu Province
spellingShingle Ling Jia
Zuirong Niu
Dongyuan Sun
Shuanghe Liang
Quantifying the effects of driving factors and runoff sensitivity on runoff variation based on the Budyko equation
Ecological Indicators
Runoff sensitivity
Improved Budyko equation
Gansu Province
title Quantifying the effects of driving factors and runoff sensitivity on runoff variation based on the Budyko equation
title_full Quantifying the effects of driving factors and runoff sensitivity on runoff variation based on the Budyko equation
title_fullStr Quantifying the effects of driving factors and runoff sensitivity on runoff variation based on the Budyko equation
title_full_unstemmed Quantifying the effects of driving factors and runoff sensitivity on runoff variation based on the Budyko equation
title_short Quantifying the effects of driving factors and runoff sensitivity on runoff variation based on the Budyko equation
title_sort quantifying the effects of driving factors and runoff sensitivity on runoff variation based on the budyko equation
topic Runoff sensitivity
Improved Budyko equation
Gansu Province
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25004856
work_keys_str_mv AT lingjia quantifyingtheeffectsofdrivingfactorsandrunoffsensitivityonrunoffvariationbasedonthebudykoequation
AT zuirongniu quantifyingtheeffectsofdrivingfactorsandrunoffsensitivityonrunoffvariationbasedonthebudykoequation
AT dongyuansun quantifyingtheeffectsofdrivingfactorsandrunoffsensitivityonrunoffvariationbasedonthebudykoequation
AT shuangheliang quantifyingtheeffectsofdrivingfactorsandrunoffsensitivityonrunoffvariationbasedonthebudykoequation