Trends and projections of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer in China: a comprehensive analysis from 1990 to 2030 based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Abstract Background Gallbladder and biliary tract cancer (GBTC) poses a growing public health challenge in China, with considerable disparities across age and sex. Understanding long-term epidemiological patterns is essential for informing cancer control strategies and future projections. Methods Da...
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2025-07-01
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-025-23601-7 |
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| author | Zhouwei Zhan Bijuan Chen Wenhao Teng Rui Huang Hanchen Zheng Sijing Zhou Jingjie Xu Jiami Yu Hui Lin Xiaojie Wang Zengqing Guo Xiaoyan Lin |
| author_facet | Zhouwei Zhan Bijuan Chen Wenhao Teng Rui Huang Hanchen Zheng Sijing Zhou Jingjie Xu Jiami Yu Hui Lin Xiaojie Wang Zengqing Guo Xiaoyan Lin |
| author_sort | Zhouwei Zhan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background Gallbladder and biliary tract cancer (GBTC) poses a growing public health challenge in China, with considerable disparities across age and sex. Understanding long-term epidemiological patterns is essential for informing cancer control strategies and future projections. Methods Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 were used to assess GBTC burden in China from 1990 to 2021. Indicators analyzed included incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and years of life lost (YLLs). Joinpoint regression, age-period-cohort (APC) analysis, decomposition analysis, and Bayesian APC (BAPC) models were employed to explore temporal trends and project future burden through 2030. Results In 2021, China reported 51,720 new GBTC cases, with an age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of 2.49 per 100,000. Males exhibited higher burden than females across all indicators. Incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs were highest in older age groups. From 1990 to 2021, China experienced increasing trends in incidence and prevalence, while age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) declined. Compared to global trends, China's ASIR rose while global rates declined. DALYs decreased in both contexts but more steeply globally. Joinpoint regression revealed sex-specific shifts, with males showing consistent increases in incidence and females experiencing periods of both decline and rise. APC analysis highlighted increasing incidence among post-1950 birth cohorts and decreasing mortality in recent cohorts. Decomposition analysis indicated that rising incidence was driven by epidemiological changes and population growth, while mortality reduction was linked to medical improvements. BAPC models projected a continued rise in incidence, particularly among males. Conclusions The burden of GBTC in China is rising, especially among men and older adults. While mortality has improved, incidence continues to grow, highlighting the need for targeted prevention, early detection, and gender-specific public health policies. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-d19b0b6793a1435e8dc924b07245d040 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1471-2458 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMC Public Health |
| spelling | doaj-art-d19b0b6793a1435e8dc924b07245d0402025-08-20T03:46:23ZengBMCBMC Public Health1471-24582025-07-0125111510.1186/s12889-025-23601-7Trends and projections of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer in China: a comprehensive analysis from 1990 to 2030 based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021Zhouwei Zhan0Bijuan Chen1Wenhao Teng2Rui Huang3Hanchen Zheng4Sijing Zhou5Jingjie Xu6Jiami Yu7Hui Lin8Xiaojie Wang9Zengqing Guo10Xiaoyan Lin11Department of Medical Oncology, Clinical Oncology School of Fujian Medical University, Fujian Cancer HospitalDepartment of Radiation Oncology, Clinical Oncology School of Fujian Medical University, Fujian Cancer HospitalDepartment of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Clinical Oncology School of Fujian Medical University, Fujian Cancer HospitalDigestive Endoscopy Center, Clinical Oncology School of Fujian Medical University, Fujian Cancer HospitalDepartment of Medical Oncology, Clinical Oncology School of Fujian Medical University, Fujian Cancer HospitalDepartment of Medical Oncology, Clinical Oncology School of Fujian Medical University, Fujian Cancer HospitalDepartment of Medical Oncology, Clinical Oncology School of Fujian Medical University, Fujian Cancer HospitalDepartment of Medical Oncology, Clinical Oncology School of Fujian Medical University, Fujian Cancer HospitalDepartment of Medical Oncology, Clinical Oncology School of Fujian Medical University, Fujian Cancer HospitalDepartment of Medical Oncology, Clinical Oncology School of Fujian Medical University, Fujian Cancer HospitalDepartment of Medical Oncology, Clinical Oncology School of Fujian Medical University, Fujian Cancer HospitalDepartment of Medical Oncology, Clinical Oncology School of Fujian Medical University, Fujian Cancer HospitalAbstract Background Gallbladder and biliary tract cancer (GBTC) poses a growing public health challenge in China, with considerable disparities across age and sex. Understanding long-term epidemiological patterns is essential for informing cancer control strategies and future projections. Methods Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 were used to assess GBTC burden in China from 1990 to 2021. Indicators analyzed included incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and years of life lost (YLLs). Joinpoint regression, age-period-cohort (APC) analysis, decomposition analysis, and Bayesian APC (BAPC) models were employed to explore temporal trends and project future burden through 2030. Results In 2021, China reported 51,720 new GBTC cases, with an age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of 2.49 per 100,000. Males exhibited higher burden than females across all indicators. Incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs were highest in older age groups. From 1990 to 2021, China experienced increasing trends in incidence and prevalence, while age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) declined. Compared to global trends, China's ASIR rose while global rates declined. DALYs decreased in both contexts but more steeply globally. Joinpoint regression revealed sex-specific shifts, with males showing consistent increases in incidence and females experiencing periods of both decline and rise. APC analysis highlighted increasing incidence among post-1950 birth cohorts and decreasing mortality in recent cohorts. Decomposition analysis indicated that rising incidence was driven by epidemiological changes and population growth, while mortality reduction was linked to medical improvements. BAPC models projected a continued rise in incidence, particularly among males. Conclusions The burden of GBTC in China is rising, especially among men and older adults. While mortality has improved, incidence continues to grow, highlighting the need for targeted prevention, early detection, and gender-specific public health policies.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-025-23601-7Gallbladder cancerBiliary tract cancerGlobal Burden of DiseaseEpidemiologyJoinpoint regressionChina |
| spellingShingle | Zhouwei Zhan Bijuan Chen Wenhao Teng Rui Huang Hanchen Zheng Sijing Zhou Jingjie Xu Jiami Yu Hui Lin Xiaojie Wang Zengqing Guo Xiaoyan Lin Trends and projections of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer in China: a comprehensive analysis from 1990 to 2030 based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 BMC Public Health Gallbladder cancer Biliary tract cancer Global Burden of Disease Epidemiology Joinpoint regression China |
| title | Trends and projections of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer in China: a comprehensive analysis from 1990 to 2030 based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 |
| title_full | Trends and projections of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer in China: a comprehensive analysis from 1990 to 2030 based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 |
| title_fullStr | Trends and projections of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer in China: a comprehensive analysis from 1990 to 2030 based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Trends and projections of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer in China: a comprehensive analysis from 1990 to 2030 based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 |
| title_short | Trends and projections of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer in China: a comprehensive analysis from 1990 to 2030 based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 |
| title_sort | trends and projections of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer in china a comprehensive analysis from 1990 to 2030 based on the global burden of disease study 2021 |
| topic | Gallbladder cancer Biliary tract cancer Global Burden of Disease Epidemiology Joinpoint regression China |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-025-23601-7 |
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