Prediction of Water Quality in Agricultural Watersheds Based on VMD-GA-LSTM Model

As agricultural non-point source pollution becomes increasingly severe and constitutes the primary source of water quality degradation, accurately predicting water quality in agricultural watersheds has become critical for environmental protection. In order to solve the nonlinear and non-stationary...

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Main Authors: Yuxuan Luo, Xianglan Meng, Yutong Zhai, Dongqing Zhang, Kaiping Ma
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2025-06-01
Series:Mathematics
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/13/12/1951
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author Yuxuan Luo
Xianglan Meng
Yutong Zhai
Dongqing Zhang
Kaiping Ma
author_facet Yuxuan Luo
Xianglan Meng
Yutong Zhai
Dongqing Zhang
Kaiping Ma
author_sort Yuxuan Luo
collection DOAJ
description As agricultural non-point source pollution becomes increasingly severe and constitutes the primary source of water quality degradation, accurately predicting water quality in agricultural watersheds has become critical for environmental protection. In order to solve the nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics of water quality data, this paper proposes a combined model based on variational modal decomposition and genetic algorithm optimization of long short-term memory networks (VMD-GA-LSTM) for agricultural watershed water quality prediction. The VMD-GA-LSTM model utilizes the variational mode decomposition technique to decompose the time series data into multiple intrinsic mode functions and then uses the optimized LSTM network to predict each component to improve the accuracy of water quality prediction. The analysis of water quality data from the Baima River in China demonstrated that the VMD-GA-LSTM model significantly reduced prediction errors compared to other similar models. The VMD-GA-LSTM predictive model proposed in this paper effectively addresses the volatility characterizing water quality in agricultural watersheds, improves prediction accuracy, and it reveals valuable trends in water quality dynamics, providing practical solutions for sustainable agricultural practices and environmental governance.
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spelling doaj-art-d0f7c84cd84345f7a36a637ef779c22b2025-08-20T03:27:40ZengMDPI AGMathematics2227-73902025-06-011312195110.3390/math13121951Prediction of Water Quality in Agricultural Watersheds Based on VMD-GA-LSTM ModelYuxuan Luo0Xianglan Meng1Yutong Zhai2Dongqing Zhang3Kaiping Ma4College of Information Management, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 211800, ChinaCollege of Information Management, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 211800, ChinaCollege of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, ChinaCollege of Information Management, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 211800, ChinaCollege of Information Management, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 211800, ChinaAs agricultural non-point source pollution becomes increasingly severe and constitutes the primary source of water quality degradation, accurately predicting water quality in agricultural watersheds has become critical for environmental protection. In order to solve the nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics of water quality data, this paper proposes a combined model based on variational modal decomposition and genetic algorithm optimization of long short-term memory networks (VMD-GA-LSTM) for agricultural watershed water quality prediction. The VMD-GA-LSTM model utilizes the variational mode decomposition technique to decompose the time series data into multiple intrinsic mode functions and then uses the optimized LSTM network to predict each component to improve the accuracy of water quality prediction. The analysis of water quality data from the Baima River in China demonstrated that the VMD-GA-LSTM model significantly reduced prediction errors compared to other similar models. The VMD-GA-LSTM predictive model proposed in this paper effectively addresses the volatility characterizing water quality in agricultural watersheds, improves prediction accuracy, and it reveals valuable trends in water quality dynamics, providing practical solutions for sustainable agricultural practices and environmental governance.https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/13/12/1951sustainable agriculturewater quality predictionvariational mode decompositiongenetic algorithmlong short-term memory
spellingShingle Yuxuan Luo
Xianglan Meng
Yutong Zhai
Dongqing Zhang
Kaiping Ma
Prediction of Water Quality in Agricultural Watersheds Based on VMD-GA-LSTM Model
Mathematics
sustainable agriculture
water quality prediction
variational mode decomposition
genetic algorithm
long short-term memory
title Prediction of Water Quality in Agricultural Watersheds Based on VMD-GA-LSTM Model
title_full Prediction of Water Quality in Agricultural Watersheds Based on VMD-GA-LSTM Model
title_fullStr Prediction of Water Quality in Agricultural Watersheds Based on VMD-GA-LSTM Model
title_full_unstemmed Prediction of Water Quality in Agricultural Watersheds Based on VMD-GA-LSTM Model
title_short Prediction of Water Quality in Agricultural Watersheds Based on VMD-GA-LSTM Model
title_sort prediction of water quality in agricultural watersheds based on vmd ga lstm model
topic sustainable agriculture
water quality prediction
variational mode decomposition
genetic algorithm
long short-term memory
url https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/13/12/1951
work_keys_str_mv AT yuxuanluo predictionofwaterqualityinagriculturalwatershedsbasedonvmdgalstmmodel
AT xianglanmeng predictionofwaterqualityinagriculturalwatershedsbasedonvmdgalstmmodel
AT yutongzhai predictionofwaterqualityinagriculturalwatershedsbasedonvmdgalstmmodel
AT dongqingzhang predictionofwaterqualityinagriculturalwatershedsbasedonvmdgalstmmodel
AT kaipingma predictionofwaterqualityinagriculturalwatershedsbasedonvmdgalstmmodel