Flexible nuclear power and fluctuating renewables? — An analysis for decarbonized multi-vector energy systems
Many governments consider new nuclear power plants to promote decarbonization. On the one hand, dispatchable nuclear plants can complement fluctuating generation from wind and PV. On the other hand, escalating construction costs and times raise economic concerns. This paper investigates the economic...
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| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-07-01
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| Series: | Energy Strategy Reviews |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X25001452 |
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| author | Leonard Göke Alexander Wimmers Christian von Hirschhausen |
| author_facet | Leonard Göke Alexander Wimmers Christian von Hirschhausen |
| author_sort | Leonard Göke |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Many governments consider new nuclear power plants to promote decarbonization. On the one hand, dispatchable nuclear plants can complement fluctuating generation from wind and PV. On the other hand, escalating construction costs and times raise economic concerns. This paper investigates the economic threshold at which nuclear plants are an efficient decarbonization option. Building on an extensive review of construction costs and times, we apply a detailed model of the European energy system to analyze the cost-efficient share of nuclear power in fully decarbonized energy systems in 2040. Our analysis finds that even if, reversing the historical trend, overnight construction costs of nuclear half to 4,000 US-$2018 per kW and construction times remain below ten years, the cost-efficient share of nuclear power in European electricity generation is only around 10%. Nuclear plants must operate inflexibly and at capacity factors close to 90% to recover their investment costs, implying that operational flexibility – even if technically possible – is not economically viable. As a result, grid infrastructure, flexible demand in multi-energy systems, and storage are more efficient options for integrating fluctuating wind and photovoltaic generation. The findings suggest that nuclear power should not be relied on for flexibility in future power systems. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-d08a4ee3ce524f6c8f45fa0304146ccc |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2211-467X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Energy Strategy Reviews |
| spelling | doaj-art-d08a4ee3ce524f6c8f45fa0304146ccc2025-08-20T04:00:32ZengElsevierEnergy Strategy Reviews2211-467X2025-07-016010178210.1016/j.esr.2025.101782Flexible nuclear power and fluctuating renewables? — An analysis for decarbonized multi-vector energy systemsLeonard Göke0Alexander Wimmers1Christian von Hirschhausen2Reliability and Risk Engineering, ETH Zürich, Leonhardstrasse 21, Zürich 8092, SwitzerlandWorkgroup for Infrastructure Policy (WIP), Technische Universität Berlin, Straße des 17. Juni 135, 10623 Berlin, Germany; Energy, Transportation, Environment Department, German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin), Mohrenstraße 58, 10117 Berlin, Germany; Corresponding author at: Workgroup for Infrastructure Policy (WIP), Technische Universität Berlin, Straße des 17. Juni 135, 10623 Berlin, Germany.Workgroup for Infrastructure Policy (WIP), Technische Universität Berlin, Straße des 17. Juni 135, 10623 Berlin, Germany; Energy, Transportation, Environment Department, German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin), Mohrenstraße 58, 10117 Berlin, GermanyMany governments consider new nuclear power plants to promote decarbonization. On the one hand, dispatchable nuclear plants can complement fluctuating generation from wind and PV. On the other hand, escalating construction costs and times raise economic concerns. This paper investigates the economic threshold at which nuclear plants are an efficient decarbonization option. Building on an extensive review of construction costs and times, we apply a detailed model of the European energy system to analyze the cost-efficient share of nuclear power in fully decarbonized energy systems in 2040. Our analysis finds that even if, reversing the historical trend, overnight construction costs of nuclear half to 4,000 US-$2018 per kW and construction times remain below ten years, the cost-efficient share of nuclear power in European electricity generation is only around 10%. Nuclear plants must operate inflexibly and at capacity factors close to 90% to recover their investment costs, implying that operational flexibility – even if technically possible – is not economically viable. As a result, grid infrastructure, flexible demand in multi-energy systems, and storage are more efficient options for integrating fluctuating wind and photovoltaic generation. The findings suggest that nuclear power should not be relied on for flexibility in future power systems.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X25001452Macro-energy systemsNuclear powerDecarbonizationIntegrated energy systemNuclear economics |
| spellingShingle | Leonard Göke Alexander Wimmers Christian von Hirschhausen Flexible nuclear power and fluctuating renewables? — An analysis for decarbonized multi-vector energy systems Energy Strategy Reviews Macro-energy systems Nuclear power Decarbonization Integrated energy system Nuclear economics |
| title | Flexible nuclear power and fluctuating renewables? — An analysis for decarbonized multi-vector energy systems |
| title_full | Flexible nuclear power and fluctuating renewables? — An analysis for decarbonized multi-vector energy systems |
| title_fullStr | Flexible nuclear power and fluctuating renewables? — An analysis for decarbonized multi-vector energy systems |
| title_full_unstemmed | Flexible nuclear power and fluctuating renewables? — An analysis for decarbonized multi-vector energy systems |
| title_short | Flexible nuclear power and fluctuating renewables? — An analysis for decarbonized multi-vector energy systems |
| title_sort | flexible nuclear power and fluctuating renewables an analysis for decarbonized multi vector energy systems |
| topic | Macro-energy systems Nuclear power Decarbonization Integrated energy system Nuclear economics |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X25001452 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT leonardgoke flexiblenuclearpowerandfluctuatingrenewablesananalysisfordecarbonizedmultivectorenergysystems AT alexanderwimmers flexiblenuclearpowerandfluctuatingrenewablesananalysisfordecarbonizedmultivectorenergysystems AT christianvonhirschhausen flexiblenuclearpowerandfluctuatingrenewablesananalysisfordecarbonizedmultivectorenergysystems |