Flexible nuclear power and fluctuating renewables? — An analysis for decarbonized multi-vector energy systems

Many governments consider new nuclear power plants to promote decarbonization. On the one hand, dispatchable nuclear plants can complement fluctuating generation from wind and PV. On the other hand, escalating construction costs and times raise economic concerns. This paper investigates the economic...

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Main Authors: Leonard Göke, Alexander Wimmers, Christian von Hirschhausen
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2025-07-01
Series:Energy Strategy Reviews
Subjects:
Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X25001452
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author Leonard Göke
Alexander Wimmers
Christian von Hirschhausen
author_facet Leonard Göke
Alexander Wimmers
Christian von Hirschhausen
author_sort Leonard Göke
collection DOAJ
description Many governments consider new nuclear power plants to promote decarbonization. On the one hand, dispatchable nuclear plants can complement fluctuating generation from wind and PV. On the other hand, escalating construction costs and times raise economic concerns. This paper investigates the economic threshold at which nuclear plants are an efficient decarbonization option. Building on an extensive review of construction costs and times, we apply a detailed model of the European energy system to analyze the cost-efficient share of nuclear power in fully decarbonized energy systems in 2040. Our analysis finds that even if, reversing the historical trend, overnight construction costs of nuclear half to 4,000 US-$2018 per kW and construction times remain below ten years, the cost-efficient share of nuclear power in European electricity generation is only around 10%. Nuclear plants must operate inflexibly and at capacity factors close to 90% to recover their investment costs, implying that operational flexibility – even if technically possible – is not economically viable. As a result, grid infrastructure, flexible demand in multi-energy systems, and storage are more efficient options for integrating fluctuating wind and photovoltaic generation. The findings suggest that nuclear power should not be relied on for flexibility in future power systems.
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spelling doaj-art-d08a4ee3ce524f6c8f45fa0304146ccc2025-08-20T04:00:32ZengElsevierEnergy Strategy Reviews2211-467X2025-07-016010178210.1016/j.esr.2025.101782Flexible nuclear power and fluctuating renewables? — An analysis for decarbonized multi-vector energy systemsLeonard Göke0Alexander Wimmers1Christian von Hirschhausen2Reliability and Risk Engineering, ETH Zürich, Leonhardstrasse 21, Zürich 8092, SwitzerlandWorkgroup for Infrastructure Policy (WIP), Technische Universität Berlin, Straße des 17. Juni 135, 10623 Berlin, Germany; Energy, Transportation, Environment Department, German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin), Mohrenstraße 58, 10117 Berlin, Germany; Corresponding author at: Workgroup for Infrastructure Policy (WIP), Technische Universität Berlin, Straße des 17. Juni 135, 10623 Berlin, Germany.Workgroup for Infrastructure Policy (WIP), Technische Universität Berlin, Straße des 17. Juni 135, 10623 Berlin, Germany; Energy, Transportation, Environment Department, German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin), Mohrenstraße 58, 10117 Berlin, GermanyMany governments consider new nuclear power plants to promote decarbonization. On the one hand, dispatchable nuclear plants can complement fluctuating generation from wind and PV. On the other hand, escalating construction costs and times raise economic concerns. This paper investigates the economic threshold at which nuclear plants are an efficient decarbonization option. Building on an extensive review of construction costs and times, we apply a detailed model of the European energy system to analyze the cost-efficient share of nuclear power in fully decarbonized energy systems in 2040. Our analysis finds that even if, reversing the historical trend, overnight construction costs of nuclear half to 4,000 US-$2018 per kW and construction times remain below ten years, the cost-efficient share of nuclear power in European electricity generation is only around 10%. Nuclear plants must operate inflexibly and at capacity factors close to 90% to recover their investment costs, implying that operational flexibility – even if technically possible – is not economically viable. As a result, grid infrastructure, flexible demand in multi-energy systems, and storage are more efficient options for integrating fluctuating wind and photovoltaic generation. The findings suggest that nuclear power should not be relied on for flexibility in future power systems.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X25001452Macro-energy systemsNuclear powerDecarbonizationIntegrated energy systemNuclear economics
spellingShingle Leonard Göke
Alexander Wimmers
Christian von Hirschhausen
Flexible nuclear power and fluctuating renewables? — An analysis for decarbonized multi-vector energy systems
Energy Strategy Reviews
Macro-energy systems
Nuclear power
Decarbonization
Integrated energy system
Nuclear economics
title Flexible nuclear power and fluctuating renewables? — An analysis for decarbonized multi-vector energy systems
title_full Flexible nuclear power and fluctuating renewables? — An analysis for decarbonized multi-vector energy systems
title_fullStr Flexible nuclear power and fluctuating renewables? — An analysis for decarbonized multi-vector energy systems
title_full_unstemmed Flexible nuclear power and fluctuating renewables? — An analysis for decarbonized multi-vector energy systems
title_short Flexible nuclear power and fluctuating renewables? — An analysis for decarbonized multi-vector energy systems
title_sort flexible nuclear power and fluctuating renewables an analysis for decarbonized multi vector energy systems
topic Macro-energy systems
Nuclear power
Decarbonization
Integrated energy system
Nuclear economics
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X25001452
work_keys_str_mv AT leonardgoke flexiblenuclearpowerandfluctuatingrenewablesananalysisfordecarbonizedmultivectorenergysystems
AT alexanderwimmers flexiblenuclearpowerandfluctuatingrenewablesananalysisfordecarbonizedmultivectorenergysystems
AT christianvonhirschhausen flexiblenuclearpowerandfluctuatingrenewablesananalysisfordecarbonizedmultivectorenergysystems