Debt Sustainability in the Context of Population Ageing: A Risk Management Approach
The ageing of the population has negative effects on the gross domestic product (GDP), influencing various economic and social aspects. These effects, in turn, contribute to an increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio, raising concerns about the long-term sustainability of public debt. The objective of our...
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MDPI AG
2024-11-01
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| Series: | Risks |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/12/12/188 |
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| author | Samantha Ajovalasit Andrea Consiglio Davide Provenzano |
| author_facet | Samantha Ajovalasit Andrea Consiglio Davide Provenzano |
| author_sort | Samantha Ajovalasit |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The ageing of the population has negative effects on the gross domestic product (GDP), influencing various economic and social aspects. These effects, in turn, contribute to an increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio, raising concerns about the long-term sustainability of public debt. The objective of our study is to evaluate the possible dynamics of debt sustainability with a certain level of probability. The analysis employs the stochastic modelling of risk factors influencing the debt-to-GDP ratio, particularly emphasising the economic consequences of population ageing. Using advanced risk management techniques, we aim to provide a robust assessment of how future demographic outlooks impact debt sustainability. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-d06e760d0e6d4fa891c461fb6dd5111c |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2227-9091 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-11-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Risks |
| spelling | doaj-art-d06e760d0e6d4fa891c461fb6dd5111c2024-12-27T14:51:50ZengMDPI AGRisks2227-90912024-11-01121218810.3390/risks12120188Debt Sustainability in the Context of Population Ageing: A Risk Management ApproachSamantha Ajovalasit0Andrea Consiglio1Davide Provenzano2Department of Economics, Business, and Statistics, University of Palermo, Viale delle Scienze, 90128 Palermo, ItalyDepartment of Economics, Business, and Statistics, University of Palermo, Viale delle Scienze, 90128 Palermo, ItalyDepartment of Economics, Business, and Statistics, University of Palermo, Viale delle Scienze, 90128 Palermo, ItalyThe ageing of the population has negative effects on the gross domestic product (GDP), influencing various economic and social aspects. These effects, in turn, contribute to an increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio, raising concerns about the long-term sustainability of public debt. The objective of our study is to evaluate the possible dynamics of debt sustainability with a certain level of probability. The analysis employs the stochastic modelling of risk factors influencing the debt-to-GDP ratio, particularly emphasising the economic consequences of population ageing. Using advanced risk management techniques, we aim to provide a robust assessment of how future demographic outlooks impact debt sustainability.https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/12/12/188debt sustainability analysispopulation ageingstochastic optimisationrisk management |
| spellingShingle | Samantha Ajovalasit Andrea Consiglio Davide Provenzano Debt Sustainability in the Context of Population Ageing: A Risk Management Approach Risks debt sustainability analysis population ageing stochastic optimisation risk management |
| title | Debt Sustainability in the Context of Population Ageing: A Risk Management Approach |
| title_full | Debt Sustainability in the Context of Population Ageing: A Risk Management Approach |
| title_fullStr | Debt Sustainability in the Context of Population Ageing: A Risk Management Approach |
| title_full_unstemmed | Debt Sustainability in the Context of Population Ageing: A Risk Management Approach |
| title_short | Debt Sustainability in the Context of Population Ageing: A Risk Management Approach |
| title_sort | debt sustainability in the context of population ageing a risk management approach |
| topic | debt sustainability analysis population ageing stochastic optimisation risk management |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/12/12/188 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT samanthaajovalasit debtsustainabilityinthecontextofpopulationageingariskmanagementapproach AT andreaconsiglio debtsustainabilityinthecontextofpopulationageingariskmanagementapproach AT davideprovenzano debtsustainabilityinthecontextofpopulationageingariskmanagementapproach |