Parameter Distributions for the Drag‐Based Modeling of CME Propagation
Abstract In recent years, ensemble modeling has been widely employed in space weather to estimate uncertainties in forecasts. We here focus on the ensemble modeling of Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) arrival times and arrival velocities using a drag‐based model, which is well‐suited for this purpose du...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2022-09-01
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| Series: | Space Weather |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2021SW002925 |
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| _version_ | 1841536362289823744 |
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| author | Gianluca Napoletano Raffaello Foldes Enrico Camporeale Giancarlo deGasperis Luca Giovannelli Evangelos Paouris Ermanno Pietropaolo Jannis Teunissen Ajay Kumar Tiwari Dario Del Moro |
| author_facet | Gianluca Napoletano Raffaello Foldes Enrico Camporeale Giancarlo deGasperis Luca Giovannelli Evangelos Paouris Ermanno Pietropaolo Jannis Teunissen Ajay Kumar Tiwari Dario Del Moro |
| author_sort | Gianluca Napoletano |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract In recent years, ensemble modeling has been widely employed in space weather to estimate uncertainties in forecasts. We here focus on the ensemble modeling of Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) arrival times and arrival velocities using a drag‐based model, which is well‐suited for this purpose due to its simplicity and low computational cost. Although ensemble techniques have previously been applied to the drag‐based model, it is still not clear how to best determine distributions for its input parameters, namely the drag parameter and the solar wind speed. The aim of this work is to evaluate statistical distributions for these model parameters starting from a list of past CME‐ICME events. We employ LASCO coronagraph observations to measure initial CME position and speed, and in situ data to associate them with an arrival date and arrival speed. For each event we ran a statistical procedure to invert the model equations, producing parameters distributions as output. Our results indicate that the distributions employed in previous works were appropriately selected, even though they were based on restricted samples and heuristic considerations. On the other hand, possible refinements to the current method are also identified, such as the dependence of the drag parameter distribution on the CME being accelerated or decelerated by the solar wind, which deserve further investigation. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-d061155961dd45309f3ac10543f9cc01 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1542-7390 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2022-09-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Space Weather |
| spelling | doaj-art-d061155961dd45309f3ac10543f9cc012025-01-14T16:31:12ZengWileySpace Weather1542-73902022-09-01209n/an/a10.1029/2021SW002925Parameter Distributions for the Drag‐Based Modeling of CME PropagationGianluca Napoletano0Raffaello Foldes1Enrico Camporeale2Giancarlo deGasperis3Luca Giovannelli4Evangelos Paouris5Ermanno Pietropaolo6Jannis Teunissen7Ajay Kumar Tiwari8Dario Del Moro9Dipartimento di Fisica Università degli studi di Roma “Tor Vergata” Rome ItalyDipartimento di Scienze Fisiche e Chimiche Università degli studi dell’Aquila Coppito‐L'Aquila ItalyCIRES University of Colorado Boulder CO USADipartimento di Fisica Università degli studi di Roma “Tor Vergata” Rome ItalyDipartimento di Fisica Università degli studi di Roma “Tor Vergata” Rome ItalyInstitute for Astronomy Astrophysics, Space Applications & Remote Sensing of the National Observatory of Athens Penteli GreeceDipartimento di Scienze Fisiche e Chimiche Università degli studi dell’Aquila Coppito‐L'Aquila ItalyCentrum Wiskunde & Informatica (CWI) Amsterdam The NetherlandsCentrum Wiskunde & Informatica (CWI) Amsterdam The NetherlandsDipartimento di Fisica Università degli studi di Roma “Tor Vergata” Rome ItalyAbstract In recent years, ensemble modeling has been widely employed in space weather to estimate uncertainties in forecasts. We here focus on the ensemble modeling of Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) arrival times and arrival velocities using a drag‐based model, which is well‐suited for this purpose due to its simplicity and low computational cost. Although ensemble techniques have previously been applied to the drag‐based model, it is still not clear how to best determine distributions for its input parameters, namely the drag parameter and the solar wind speed. The aim of this work is to evaluate statistical distributions for these model parameters starting from a list of past CME‐ICME events. We employ LASCO coronagraph observations to measure initial CME position and speed, and in situ data to associate them with an arrival date and arrival speed. For each event we ran a statistical procedure to invert the model equations, producing parameters distributions as output. Our results indicate that the distributions employed in previous works were appropriately selected, even though they were based on restricted samples and heuristic considerations. On the other hand, possible refinements to the current method are also identified, such as the dependence of the drag parameter distribution on the CME being accelerated or decelerated by the solar wind, which deserve further investigation.https://doi.org/10.1029/2021SW002925space weatherinterplanetary coronal mass ejectionsdrag‐based model |
| spellingShingle | Gianluca Napoletano Raffaello Foldes Enrico Camporeale Giancarlo deGasperis Luca Giovannelli Evangelos Paouris Ermanno Pietropaolo Jannis Teunissen Ajay Kumar Tiwari Dario Del Moro Parameter Distributions for the Drag‐Based Modeling of CME Propagation Space Weather space weather interplanetary coronal mass ejections drag‐based model |
| title | Parameter Distributions for the Drag‐Based Modeling of CME Propagation |
| title_full | Parameter Distributions for the Drag‐Based Modeling of CME Propagation |
| title_fullStr | Parameter Distributions for the Drag‐Based Modeling of CME Propagation |
| title_full_unstemmed | Parameter Distributions for the Drag‐Based Modeling of CME Propagation |
| title_short | Parameter Distributions for the Drag‐Based Modeling of CME Propagation |
| title_sort | parameter distributions for the drag based modeling of cme propagation |
| topic | space weather interplanetary coronal mass ejections drag‐based model |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2021SW002925 |
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