Development and validation of a predictive model for new HIV infection screening among persons 15 years and above in primary healthcare settings in Kenya: a study protocol

Introduction This study seeks to determine incidence, comorbidities and drivers for new HIV infections to develop, test and validate a risk prediction model for screening for new cases of HIV.Methods and analysis The study has two components: a cross-sectional study to develop the prediction model u...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Simon Karanja, Amos Otieno Olwendo, Gideon Kikuvi
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: BMJ Publishing Group 2025-08-01
Series:BMJ Health & Care Informatics
Online Access:https://informatics.bmj.com/content/32/1/e101419.full
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:Introduction This study seeks to determine incidence, comorbidities and drivers for new HIV infections to develop, test and validate a risk prediction model for screening for new cases of HIV.Methods and analysis The study has two components: a cross-sectional study to develop the prediction model using the HIV dataset from the Kenya AIDS and STI Control Programme and a 15-month prospective study for the validation of the model. Inferential analysis will be conducted using algorithms that perform best in disease prediction: Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and Multilayer Perceptron. Model sensitivity and specificity will be examined using the receiver operating characteristic curve, and performance will be evaluated using metrics: accuracy, precision, recall and F1 score.Ethics and dissemination The study obtained ethical approval (JKU/ISERC/02321/1421) from the Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology Ethical and Research Board and a research licence (NACOSTI/P/24/414749) from the National Commission for Science, Technology and Innovation.
ISSN:2632-1009