Avoiding global deforestation by taxing land in agricultural production: the implications for global markets

Abstract The projected growth in population and incomes is expected to create pressure to convert forestland into farmland. At the same time, the increasingly negative climate impacts are expected to generate further pressure to enhance the terrestrial carbon sink. Even though these goals are incomp...

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Main Authors: Eric C. Davis, Maros Ivanic, Brent Sohngen
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: BMC 2025-03-01
Series:Carbon Balance and Management
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1186/s13021-025-00291-7
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author Eric C. Davis
Maros Ivanic
Brent Sohngen
author_facet Eric C. Davis
Maros Ivanic
Brent Sohngen
author_sort Eric C. Davis
collection DOAJ
description Abstract The projected growth in population and incomes is expected to create pressure to convert forestland into farmland. At the same time, the increasingly negative climate impacts are expected to generate further pressure to enhance the terrestrial carbon sink. Even though these goals are incompatible as reversing the deforestation trend by afforesting cropland would result in negative market impacts such as higher food prices, using the GTAP and GTM models, we find that these impacts would be relatively small if the goal of preserving 144.2 million hectares of forestland that otherwise would be converted to agricultural land by 2033 is achieved through a tax on land use in agricultural production. As to the economic price for doing so, the avoided deforestation would in most regions of the world result in less agricultural output and higher market prices. This is estimated to impact the well-being of global consumers by $119.7 billion, which translates to a global average cost of $13.78 per person in 2033.
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spelling doaj-art-d01c07b8d82f4d96b50c9df21e70acff2025-08-20T03:01:38ZengBMCCarbon Balance and Management1750-06802025-03-0120111010.1186/s13021-025-00291-7Avoiding global deforestation by taxing land in agricultural production: the implications for global marketsEric C. Davis0Maros Ivanic1Brent Sohngen2United States Department of Agriculture-Economic Research ServiceUnited States Department of Agriculture-Economic Research ServiceDepartment of Agricultural, Environmental, & Development Economics, The Ohio State UniversityAbstract The projected growth in population and incomes is expected to create pressure to convert forestland into farmland. At the same time, the increasingly negative climate impacts are expected to generate further pressure to enhance the terrestrial carbon sink. Even though these goals are incompatible as reversing the deforestation trend by afforesting cropland would result in negative market impacts such as higher food prices, using the GTAP and GTM models, we find that these impacts would be relatively small if the goal of preserving 144.2 million hectares of forestland that otherwise would be converted to agricultural land by 2033 is achieved through a tax on land use in agricultural production. As to the economic price for doing so, the avoided deforestation would in most regions of the world result in less agricultural output and higher market prices. This is estimated to impact the well-being of global consumers by $119.7 billion, which translates to a global average cost of $13.78 per person in 2033.https://doi.org/10.1186/s13021-025-00291-7
spellingShingle Eric C. Davis
Maros Ivanic
Brent Sohngen
Avoiding global deforestation by taxing land in agricultural production: the implications for global markets
Carbon Balance and Management
title Avoiding global deforestation by taxing land in agricultural production: the implications for global markets
title_full Avoiding global deforestation by taxing land in agricultural production: the implications for global markets
title_fullStr Avoiding global deforestation by taxing land in agricultural production: the implications for global markets
title_full_unstemmed Avoiding global deforestation by taxing land in agricultural production: the implications for global markets
title_short Avoiding global deforestation by taxing land in agricultural production: the implications for global markets
title_sort avoiding global deforestation by taxing land in agricultural production the implications for global markets
url https://doi.org/10.1186/s13021-025-00291-7
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AT marosivanic avoidingglobaldeforestationbytaxinglandinagriculturalproductiontheimplicationsforglobalmarkets
AT brentsohngen avoidingglobaldeforestationbytaxinglandinagriculturalproductiontheimplicationsforglobalmarkets