Assessing the influence of thermal conditions on Western China’s tourist arrivals: a social media data-driven analysis
Changing climate poses profound and complex impacts on tourism, significantly affecting visitor demand, tourist behavior, destination choice, and the sustainability of tourism-dependent economies. This study examines the relationship between tourist arrivals and thermal comfort in 48 western Chinese...
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| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
IOP Publishing
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Communications |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ade228 |
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| Summary: | Changing climate poses profound and complex impacts on tourism, significantly affecting visitor demand, tourist behavior, destination choice, and the sustainability of tourism-dependent economies. This study examines the relationship between tourist arrivals and thermal comfort in 48 western Chinese cities by integrating social media data with a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (SARIMA) model. Using the historical time-series data, SARIMA is applied to forecast tourism trends under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP245, SSP585), offering insights into how thermal condition influences tourist arrivals. Results show that (1) the highest decline rate of uncomfortable days (UCDs) is in the eastern edge of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau between 1000 and 3000 m, especially in summer, and the increasing rate of UCDs occurs in southern Xinjiang at the same elevation level (2). A significant negative correlation between the Baidu Tourism Index (the Internet search engine in China for tourism information, BTI) and the UCDs in most cities has been found, which indicates the number of tourists would be affected by thermal conditions (3). Incorporating climatic indices into the tourist projection model can significantly improve the accuracy, which further demonstrates the predictive utility of climatic indices, especially in Tibet and Qinghai (4). Due to the reduction of UCDs in the middle-term period (2041–2060), tourism development in Western China is projected to experience maximal growth based on the projection. A significant increase in tourist arrivals is expected in cities between 1000 and 3000 m, especially under the SSP126 scenario. This study provides scientific suggestions on sustainable development for policymakers and stakeholders by analyzing climatic conditions affecting tourist trends under different scenarios. |
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| ISSN: | 2515-7620 |