Research on Multi-Scenario Simulation of Urban Expansion for Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region Considering Multilevel Urban Flows
With the development of urban agglomerations in China, the study of the interactions between cities has become a popular and difficult issue. Exploring the interactions between cities can help decision-makers optimize regional resource allocation and improve regional spatial patterns. Combining the...
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MDPI AG
2024-11-01
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| author | Jiayi Hu Dongya Liu Xinqi Zheng |
| author_facet | Jiayi Hu Dongya Liu Xinqi Zheng |
| author_sort | Jiayi Hu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | With the development of urban agglomerations in China, the study of the interactions between cities has become a popular and difficult issue. Exploring the interactions between cities can help decision-makers optimize regional resource allocation and improve regional spatial patterns. Combining the urban flow model and the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model, this study simulates and analyzes the process of urban expansion in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region, and investigates the impact of urban hierarchical structure differences on urban expansion. In this study, the role and influence of inter-city economy flow, transportation flow, population flow, and information flow on the development of urban agglomerations are comprehensively considered, and a multilevel urban interaction model is constructed based on a hierarchical generalized linear model (HGLM). Based on the national BTH cooperation and development strategy, a multi-scenario simulation study of urban expansion is carried out using the HGLM-PLUS model. The results indicate the following: (1) compared to the traditional PLUS model, the coupled HGLM-PLUS model, which considers multilevel urban flows, improved the overall accuracy by 0.047, the Kappa coefficient by 0.207, and the figure of merit (FoM) index by 0.051; (2) under different simulation scenarios, the development trend under the cooperation and development policy in the BTH region is more stable, demonstrating a relatively smooth urbanization expansion trend; and (3) under the BTH cooperation and development background, the total area of construction land in the BTH region is expected to be maintained at around 1,164,500 km<sup>2</sup> by 2040. The spatial expansion pattern will present a networked expansion with the core driving development, axes and belts connecting, and clusters breaking through. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-cf634b2982ae42d7863bfde3fc36687a |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2073-445X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-11-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
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| series | Land |
| spelling | doaj-art-cf634b2982ae42d7863bfde3fc36687a2025-08-20T02:48:03ZengMDPI AGLand2073-445X2024-11-011311183010.3390/land13111830Research on Multi-Scenario Simulation of Urban Expansion for Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region Considering Multilevel Urban FlowsJiayi Hu0Dongya Liu1Xinqi Zheng2School of Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, ChinaSchool of Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, ChinaSchool of Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, ChinaWith the development of urban agglomerations in China, the study of the interactions between cities has become a popular and difficult issue. Exploring the interactions between cities can help decision-makers optimize regional resource allocation and improve regional spatial patterns. Combining the urban flow model and the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model, this study simulates and analyzes the process of urban expansion in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region, and investigates the impact of urban hierarchical structure differences on urban expansion. In this study, the role and influence of inter-city economy flow, transportation flow, population flow, and information flow on the development of urban agglomerations are comprehensively considered, and a multilevel urban interaction model is constructed based on a hierarchical generalized linear model (HGLM). Based on the national BTH cooperation and development strategy, a multi-scenario simulation study of urban expansion is carried out using the HGLM-PLUS model. The results indicate the following: (1) compared to the traditional PLUS model, the coupled HGLM-PLUS model, which considers multilevel urban flows, improved the overall accuracy by 0.047, the Kappa coefficient by 0.207, and the figure of merit (FoM) index by 0.051; (2) under different simulation scenarios, the development trend under the cooperation and development policy in the BTH region is more stable, demonstrating a relatively smooth urbanization expansion trend; and (3) under the BTH cooperation and development background, the total area of construction land in the BTH region is expected to be maintained at around 1,164,500 km<sup>2</sup> by 2040. The spatial expansion pattern will present a networked expansion with the core driving development, axes and belts connecting, and clusters breaking through.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/13/11/1830urban flow modelPLUS modelhierarchical generalized linear modelBeijing–Tianjin–Hebei regionurban expansion |
| spellingShingle | Jiayi Hu Dongya Liu Xinqi Zheng Research on Multi-Scenario Simulation of Urban Expansion for Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region Considering Multilevel Urban Flows Land urban flow model PLUS model hierarchical generalized linear model Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region urban expansion |
| title | Research on Multi-Scenario Simulation of Urban Expansion for Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region Considering Multilevel Urban Flows |
| title_full | Research on Multi-Scenario Simulation of Urban Expansion for Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region Considering Multilevel Urban Flows |
| title_fullStr | Research on Multi-Scenario Simulation of Urban Expansion for Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region Considering Multilevel Urban Flows |
| title_full_unstemmed | Research on Multi-Scenario Simulation of Urban Expansion for Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region Considering Multilevel Urban Flows |
| title_short | Research on Multi-Scenario Simulation of Urban Expansion for Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region Considering Multilevel Urban Flows |
| title_sort | research on multi scenario simulation of urban expansion for beijing tianjin hebei region considering multilevel urban flows |
| topic | urban flow model PLUS model hierarchical generalized linear model Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region urban expansion |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/13/11/1830 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT jiayihu researchonmultiscenariosimulationofurbanexpansionforbeijingtianjinhebeiregionconsideringmultilevelurbanflows AT dongyaliu researchonmultiscenariosimulationofurbanexpansionforbeijingtianjinhebeiregionconsideringmultilevelurbanflows AT xinqizheng researchonmultiscenariosimulationofurbanexpansionforbeijingtianjinhebeiregionconsideringmultilevelurbanflows |