Exploring the crop suitability of first-contact tribal lands in the eastern United States: impacts of past and near-future climate conditions
Abstract Indigenous communities in the United States have experienced a long history of land displacement, disrupted food systems, and inadequate federal services, which have contributed to nutrition-related health disparities. Initiatives to support Indigenous agriculture may help address these inj...
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Nature Portfolio
2025-07-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-13581-4 |
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| author | Zach Conrad Matthias Leu Eli Fulcher Songze Wu Chloe DiStaso Juan Boston Tomalita Peterson Beth Roach Tommy Tupponce Jessica Phillips Troy Wiipongwii |
| author_facet | Zach Conrad Matthias Leu Eli Fulcher Songze Wu Chloe DiStaso Juan Boston Tomalita Peterson Beth Roach Tommy Tupponce Jessica Phillips Troy Wiipongwii |
| author_sort | Zach Conrad |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Indigenous communities in the United States have experienced a long history of land displacement, disrupted food systems, and inadequate federal services, which have contributed to nutrition-related health disparities. Initiatives to support Indigenous agriculture may help address these injustices, yet little is known about the agricultural crop suitability of tribal lands, especially under future climate conditions. This study fills this gap by developing geoclimatic forecasting models that quantify the agricultural potential of all 24 first-contact tribal lands in Virginia, Maryland, and North Carolina. Geoclimatic models included stationary variables (soil texture, salinity, drainage, and pH; elevation; and slope) and dynamic variables (monthly and annual precipitation, and monthly temperature). Tribal representatives and community leaders were partners in this research to protect Indigenous data sovereignty, ensure cultural relevance of the research design, and provide tribe-specific data on land delineations. By 2040, optimal agricultural land was predicted to decrease by 27% (1.525 km2) and the number of culturally relevant crop species was predicted to decrease by 36% (from 11 to 7). These findings provide context for policy initiatives that have emerged or accelerated to restore environmentally sensitive agricultural areas, support new and existing Indigenous food producers, and strengthen consumer markets for Indigenous food products. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-cf604e0b7cc040e1916c2a9877f9601e |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj-art-cf604e0b7cc040e1916c2a9877f9601e2025-08-20T04:02:45ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-07-0115111410.1038/s41598-025-13581-4Exploring the crop suitability of first-contact tribal lands in the eastern United States: impacts of past and near-future climate conditionsZach Conrad0Matthias Leu1Eli Fulcher2Songze Wu3Chloe DiStaso4Juan Boston5Tomalita Peterson6Beth Roach7Tommy Tupponce8Jessica Phillips9Troy Wiipongwii10Department of Health Sciences, William & MaryBiology Department, William & MaryBiology Department, William & MaryGlobal Research Institute, William & MaryGlobal Research Institute, William & MaryBaltimore American Indian CenterBaltimore American Indian CenterNottoway Indian TribeUpper Mattaponi TribeChickahominy Tribe-Eastern DivisionGlobal Research Institute, William & MaryAbstract Indigenous communities in the United States have experienced a long history of land displacement, disrupted food systems, and inadequate federal services, which have contributed to nutrition-related health disparities. Initiatives to support Indigenous agriculture may help address these injustices, yet little is known about the agricultural crop suitability of tribal lands, especially under future climate conditions. This study fills this gap by developing geoclimatic forecasting models that quantify the agricultural potential of all 24 first-contact tribal lands in Virginia, Maryland, and North Carolina. Geoclimatic models included stationary variables (soil texture, salinity, drainage, and pH; elevation; and slope) and dynamic variables (monthly and annual precipitation, and monthly temperature). Tribal representatives and community leaders were partners in this research to protect Indigenous data sovereignty, ensure cultural relevance of the research design, and provide tribe-specific data on land delineations. By 2040, optimal agricultural land was predicted to decrease by 27% (1.525 km2) and the number of culturally relevant crop species was predicted to decrease by 36% (from 11 to 7). These findings provide context for policy initiatives that have emerged or accelerated to restore environmentally sensitive agricultural areas, support new and existing Indigenous food producers, and strengthen consumer markets for Indigenous food products.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-13581-4IndigenousTribeFood sovereigntyAgricultureClimateSustainable |
| spellingShingle | Zach Conrad Matthias Leu Eli Fulcher Songze Wu Chloe DiStaso Juan Boston Tomalita Peterson Beth Roach Tommy Tupponce Jessica Phillips Troy Wiipongwii Exploring the crop suitability of first-contact tribal lands in the eastern United States: impacts of past and near-future climate conditions Scientific Reports Indigenous Tribe Food sovereignty Agriculture Climate Sustainable |
| title | Exploring the crop suitability of first-contact tribal lands in the eastern United States: impacts of past and near-future climate conditions |
| title_full | Exploring the crop suitability of first-contact tribal lands in the eastern United States: impacts of past and near-future climate conditions |
| title_fullStr | Exploring the crop suitability of first-contact tribal lands in the eastern United States: impacts of past and near-future climate conditions |
| title_full_unstemmed | Exploring the crop suitability of first-contact tribal lands in the eastern United States: impacts of past and near-future climate conditions |
| title_short | Exploring the crop suitability of first-contact tribal lands in the eastern United States: impacts of past and near-future climate conditions |
| title_sort | exploring the crop suitability of first contact tribal lands in the eastern united states impacts of past and near future climate conditions |
| topic | Indigenous Tribe Food sovereignty Agriculture Climate Sustainable |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-13581-4 |
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