Analysis of key geological structures and rockburst prediction method

Abstract Rockburst disasters generally occur within specific geological structures. Consequently, predicting and evaluating the potential rockbursts necessitates more focuses on the “geological carrier”. Considering the geological structure effects of rockbursts, a novel prediction method based on t...

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Main Authors: Chunchi Ma, Yang Yuan, Xiang Ji, Feng Peng, Ziquan Chen, Hang Zhang
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2025-05-01
Series:Scientific Reports
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-99744-9
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author Chunchi Ma
Yang Yuan
Xiang Ji
Feng Peng
Ziquan Chen
Hang Zhang
author_facet Chunchi Ma
Yang Yuan
Xiang Ji
Feng Peng
Ziquan Chen
Hang Zhang
author_sort Chunchi Ma
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Rockburst disasters generally occur within specific geological structures. Consequently, predicting and evaluating the potential rockbursts necessitates more focuses on the “geological carrier”. Considering the geological structure effects of rockbursts, a novel prediction method based on the key geological structures was proposed by combining numerical simulation with neural network. This study systematically investigated typical geological structures and geomechanical modes of rockbursts. An evaluation index for the relative energy release effect of rockbursts was established through the numerical simulation, which can be adopted to analyze the sensitivity of the key structural parameters. Subsequently, a surrogate model was developed using GA-BP neural network combined with Latin hypercube sampling to accurately represent the relationship between the key structural parameters and rockburst effects. Using the rockburst intensity classification scheme and the Monte Carlo method, the samples within the dangerous range of rockbursts were identified. By analyzing the rockburst sample points of various grades, the confidence intervals for the key structural parameters were interpreted, with the prediction method developed for identifying the key geological structures. This innovative method facilitated the rapid "dictionary-style" prediction of rockbursts in underground engineering. It comprehensively considered the impacts of geological structures on rockbursts and could offer a new pathway for precise rockburst disaster prediction.
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institution Kabale University
issn 2045-2322
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publishDate 2025-05-01
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spelling doaj-art-cf3d8df0952743f4bacd36ba0e779ad22025-08-20T03:53:12ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-05-0115112410.1038/s41598-025-99744-9Analysis of key geological structures and rockburst prediction methodChunchi Ma0Yang Yuan1Xiang Ji2Feng Peng3Ziquan Chen4Hang Zhang5State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection, Chengdu University of TechnologyState Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection, Chengdu University of TechnologyCGN LuFeng Nuclear Power Co., LtdState Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection, Chengdu University of TechnologyKey Laboratory of Transportation Tunnel Engineering, Ministry of Education, Southwest Jiaotong UniversitySichuan Development Emerging Industrial Park Investment Construction Management Co., LtdAbstract Rockburst disasters generally occur within specific geological structures. Consequently, predicting and evaluating the potential rockbursts necessitates more focuses on the “geological carrier”. Considering the geological structure effects of rockbursts, a novel prediction method based on the key geological structures was proposed by combining numerical simulation with neural network. This study systematically investigated typical geological structures and geomechanical modes of rockbursts. An evaluation index for the relative energy release effect of rockbursts was established through the numerical simulation, which can be adopted to analyze the sensitivity of the key structural parameters. Subsequently, a surrogate model was developed using GA-BP neural network combined with Latin hypercube sampling to accurately represent the relationship between the key structural parameters and rockburst effects. Using the rockburst intensity classification scheme and the Monte Carlo method, the samples within the dangerous range of rockbursts were identified. By analyzing the rockburst sample points of various grades, the confidence intervals for the key structural parameters were interpreted, with the prediction method developed for identifying the key geological structures. This innovative method facilitated the rapid "dictionary-style" prediction of rockbursts in underground engineering. It comprehensively considered the impacts of geological structures on rockbursts and could offer a new pathway for precise rockburst disaster prediction.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-99744-9Rockburst predictionGeological structure effectRelative energy release effectNumerical simulationConfidence interval
spellingShingle Chunchi Ma
Yang Yuan
Xiang Ji
Feng Peng
Ziquan Chen
Hang Zhang
Analysis of key geological structures and rockburst prediction method
Scientific Reports
Rockburst prediction
Geological structure effect
Relative energy release effect
Numerical simulation
Confidence interval
title Analysis of key geological structures and rockburst prediction method
title_full Analysis of key geological structures and rockburst prediction method
title_fullStr Analysis of key geological structures and rockburst prediction method
title_full_unstemmed Analysis of key geological structures and rockburst prediction method
title_short Analysis of key geological structures and rockburst prediction method
title_sort analysis of key geological structures and rockburst prediction method
topic Rockburst prediction
Geological structure effect
Relative energy release effect
Numerical simulation
Confidence interval
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-99744-9
work_keys_str_mv AT chunchima analysisofkeygeologicalstructuresandrockburstpredictionmethod
AT yangyuan analysisofkeygeologicalstructuresandrockburstpredictionmethod
AT xiangji analysisofkeygeologicalstructuresandrockburstpredictionmethod
AT fengpeng analysisofkeygeologicalstructuresandrockburstpredictionmethod
AT ziquanchen analysisofkeygeologicalstructuresandrockburstpredictionmethod
AT hangzhang analysisofkeygeologicalstructuresandrockburstpredictionmethod