Impact of Precipitation Uncertainty on Flood Hazard Assessment in the Oueme River Basin
This study evaluates the impact of precipitation ensembles on flood hazards in the Ouémé River Basin by coupling the hydrological HBV and hydrodynamic HEC–RAS model. Both models were calibrated and validated to simulate hydrological and hydraulic processes. Meteorological and hydrometric data from 1...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2025-06-01
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| Series: | Hydrology |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5338/12/6/138 |
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| author | Dognon Jules Afféwé Fabian Merk Marleine Bodjrènou Manuel Rauch Muhammad Nabeel Usman Jean Hounkpè Jan-Geert Bliefernicht Aristide B. Akpo Markus Disse Julien Adounkpè |
| author_facet | Dognon Jules Afféwé Fabian Merk Marleine Bodjrènou Manuel Rauch Muhammad Nabeel Usman Jean Hounkpè Jan-Geert Bliefernicht Aristide B. Akpo Markus Disse Julien Adounkpè |
| author_sort | Dognon Jules Afféwé |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study evaluates the impact of precipitation ensembles on flood hazards in the Ouémé River Basin by coupling the hydrological HBV and hydrodynamic HEC–RAS model. Both models were calibrated and validated to simulate hydrological and hydraulic processes. Meteorological and hydrometric data from 1994 to 2016, along with flood maps and DEM are used. Evapotranspiration data are calculated using Hargreaves–Samani formula. The coupling HBV–HEC–RAS models enabled the generation of ensemble hydrographs, flood maps, flood probability maps and additional statistics in West Africa for the first time, offering a comprehensive understanding of flood dynamics under uncertainty. Ensemble hydrographs and maps obtained enhance decision-making by showing discharge scenarios, spatial flood variability, prediction reliability, and probabilities, supporting targeted flood management and resource planning under uncertainty. The findings underline the need for a comprehensive strategy to mitigate both common and rare flood events while accounting for spatial uncertainties inherent in hydrological and hydraulic modeling. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-cefb91f3461244a09b95dc5a1068d103 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2306-5338 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Hydrology |
| spelling | doaj-art-cefb91f3461244a09b95dc5a1068d1032025-08-20T03:27:22ZengMDPI AGHydrology2306-53382025-06-0112613810.3390/hydrology12060138Impact of Precipitation Uncertainty on Flood Hazard Assessment in the Oueme River BasinDognon Jules Afféwé0Fabian Merk1Marleine Bodjrènou2Manuel Rauch3Muhammad Nabeel Usman4Jean Hounkpè5Jan-Geert Bliefernicht6Aristide B. Akpo7Markus Disse8Julien Adounkpè9Laboratoire de Sciences des Matériaux et Modélisation, Faculté des Sciences et Techniques, Université d’Abomey-Calavi, Abomey-Calavi 01BP526, BeninSchool of Engineering and Design, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Arcisstraße 21, 80333 München, GermanyLaboratoire de Sciences des Matériaux et Modélisation, Faculté des Sciences et Techniques, Université d’Abomey-Calavi, Abomey-Calavi 01BP526, BeninInstitute of Geography, University of Augsburg, Augsburg, Universitätsstraße 2, 86159 Augsburg, GermanySchool of Engineering and Design, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Arcisstraße 21, 80333 München, GermanyInstitut National de l’Eau, Université d’Abomey-Calavi, Abomey-Calavi 01BP526, BeninInstitute of Geography, University of Augsburg, Augsburg, Universitätsstraße 2, 86159 Augsburg, GermanyLaboratoire de Sciences des Matériaux et Modélisation, Faculté des Sciences et Techniques, Université d’Abomey-Calavi, Abomey-Calavi 01BP526, BeninSchool of Engineering and Design, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Arcisstraße 21, 80333 München, GermanyLaboratoire d’Ecologie Appliquée, Faculté des Sciences Agronomique, Université d’Abomey-Calavi, Abomey-Calavi 01BP526, BeninThis study evaluates the impact of precipitation ensembles on flood hazards in the Ouémé River Basin by coupling the hydrological HBV and hydrodynamic HEC–RAS model. Both models were calibrated and validated to simulate hydrological and hydraulic processes. Meteorological and hydrometric data from 1994 to 2016, along with flood maps and DEM are used. Evapotranspiration data are calculated using Hargreaves–Samani formula. The coupling HBV–HEC–RAS models enabled the generation of ensemble hydrographs, flood maps, flood probability maps and additional statistics in West Africa for the first time, offering a comprehensive understanding of flood dynamics under uncertainty. Ensemble hydrographs and maps obtained enhance decision-making by showing discharge scenarios, spatial flood variability, prediction reliability, and probabilities, supporting targeted flood management and resource planning under uncertainty. The findings underline the need for a comprehensive strategy to mitigate both common and rare flood events while accounting for spatial uncertainties inherent in hydrological and hydraulic modeling.https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5338/12/6/138precipitation ensemblescoupling HBVHEC–RAS modelsflood hazardsflood depth predictionuncertainty analysisOuémé River basin |
| spellingShingle | Dognon Jules Afféwé Fabian Merk Marleine Bodjrènou Manuel Rauch Muhammad Nabeel Usman Jean Hounkpè Jan-Geert Bliefernicht Aristide B. Akpo Markus Disse Julien Adounkpè Impact of Precipitation Uncertainty on Flood Hazard Assessment in the Oueme River Basin Hydrology precipitation ensembles coupling HBVHEC–RAS models flood hazards flood depth prediction uncertainty analysis Ouémé River basin |
| title | Impact of Precipitation Uncertainty on Flood Hazard Assessment in the Oueme River Basin |
| title_full | Impact of Precipitation Uncertainty on Flood Hazard Assessment in the Oueme River Basin |
| title_fullStr | Impact of Precipitation Uncertainty on Flood Hazard Assessment in the Oueme River Basin |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impact of Precipitation Uncertainty on Flood Hazard Assessment in the Oueme River Basin |
| title_short | Impact of Precipitation Uncertainty on Flood Hazard Assessment in the Oueme River Basin |
| title_sort | impact of precipitation uncertainty on flood hazard assessment in the oueme river basin |
| topic | precipitation ensembles coupling HBVHEC–RAS models flood hazards flood depth prediction uncertainty analysis Ouémé River basin |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5338/12/6/138 |
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