Enhancing Wind Power Forecasting Accuracy Based on OPESC-Optimized CNN-BiLSTM-SA Model

Accurate wind power forecasting is critical for grid management and low-carbon transitions, yet challenges arise from wind dynamics’ nonlinearity and randomness. Existing methods face issues like suboptimal hyperparameters and a poor spatiotemporal feature integration. This study proposes OPESC-CNN-...

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Main Authors: Lele Wang, Dongqing Zhang
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2025-07-01
Series:Mathematics
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Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/13/13/2174
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author Lele Wang
Dongqing Zhang
author_facet Lele Wang
Dongqing Zhang
author_sort Lele Wang
collection DOAJ
description Accurate wind power forecasting is critical for grid management and low-carbon transitions, yet challenges arise from wind dynamics’ nonlinearity and randomness. Existing methods face issues like suboptimal hyperparameters and a poor spatiotemporal feature integration. This study proposes OPESC-CNN-BiLSTM-SA, a hybrid model combining an optimized escape algorithm (OPESC), convolutional neural network (CNN), bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) network, and self-attention (SA). The OPESC tunes critical hyperparameters, including the learning rate, the number of BiLSTM hidden units, self-attention key/query dimensions, and the L2 regularization strength, to enhance model generalization. Meanwhile, the CNN extracts spatial features, the BiLSTM captures bidirectional temporal dependencies, and SA dynamically weights critical features. Testing on real wind farm data shows the model reduces the RMSE by 30.07% and the MAE by 34.51%, and achieves an R<sup>2</sup> of 97.06% compared to the baseline, demonstrating an improved accuracy for non-stationary energy time series forecasting.
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spelling doaj-art-cef27638ae16421fb16ae976db6efe422025-08-20T02:36:27ZengMDPI AGMathematics2227-73902025-07-011313217410.3390/math13132174Enhancing Wind Power Forecasting Accuracy Based on OPESC-Optimized CNN-BiLSTM-SA ModelLele Wang0Dongqing Zhang1College of Information Management, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210031, ChinaCollege of Information Management, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210031, ChinaAccurate wind power forecasting is critical for grid management and low-carbon transitions, yet challenges arise from wind dynamics’ nonlinearity and randomness. Existing methods face issues like suboptimal hyperparameters and a poor spatiotemporal feature integration. This study proposes OPESC-CNN-BiLSTM-SA, a hybrid model combining an optimized escape algorithm (OPESC), convolutional neural network (CNN), bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) network, and self-attention (SA). The OPESC tunes critical hyperparameters, including the learning rate, the number of BiLSTM hidden units, self-attention key/query dimensions, and the L2 regularization strength, to enhance model generalization. Meanwhile, the CNN extracts spatial features, the BiLSTM captures bidirectional temporal dependencies, and SA dynamically weights critical features. Testing on real wind farm data shows the model reduces the RMSE by 30.07% and the MAE by 34.51%, and achieves an R<sup>2</sup> of 97.06% compared to the baseline, demonstrating an improved accuracy for non-stationary energy time series forecasting.https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/13/13/2174wind power forecastingescape algorithm (ESC)convolutional neural network (CNN)bidirectional long short-term memory network (BiLSTM)self-attention mechanism
spellingShingle Lele Wang
Dongqing Zhang
Enhancing Wind Power Forecasting Accuracy Based on OPESC-Optimized CNN-BiLSTM-SA Model
Mathematics
wind power forecasting
escape algorithm (ESC)
convolutional neural network (CNN)
bidirectional long short-term memory network (BiLSTM)
self-attention mechanism
title Enhancing Wind Power Forecasting Accuracy Based on OPESC-Optimized CNN-BiLSTM-SA Model
title_full Enhancing Wind Power Forecasting Accuracy Based on OPESC-Optimized CNN-BiLSTM-SA Model
title_fullStr Enhancing Wind Power Forecasting Accuracy Based on OPESC-Optimized CNN-BiLSTM-SA Model
title_full_unstemmed Enhancing Wind Power Forecasting Accuracy Based on OPESC-Optimized CNN-BiLSTM-SA Model
title_short Enhancing Wind Power Forecasting Accuracy Based on OPESC-Optimized CNN-BiLSTM-SA Model
title_sort enhancing wind power forecasting accuracy based on opesc optimized cnn bilstm sa model
topic wind power forecasting
escape algorithm (ESC)
convolutional neural network (CNN)
bidirectional long short-term memory network (BiLSTM)
self-attention mechanism
url https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/13/13/2174
work_keys_str_mv AT lelewang enhancingwindpowerforecastingaccuracybasedonopescoptimizedcnnbilstmsamodel
AT dongqingzhang enhancingwindpowerforecastingaccuracybasedonopescoptimizedcnnbilstmsamodel