Gas in Transition: An ARDL Analysis of Economic and Fuel Drivers in the European Union
This study investigates the short- and long-run drivers of natural gas consumption in the European Union using an ARDL bounds testing approach. The analysis incorporates GDP per capita, liquid fuel use, and solid fuel use as explanatory variables. Augmented Dickey–Fuller tests confirm mixed integrat...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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2025-07-01
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| Series: | Energies |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/18/14/3876 |
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| author | Olena Pavlova Kostiantyn Pavlov Oksana Liashenko Andrzej Jamróz Sławomir Kopeć |
| author_facet | Olena Pavlova Kostiantyn Pavlov Oksana Liashenko Andrzej Jamróz Sławomir Kopeć |
| author_sort | Olena Pavlova |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study investigates the short- and long-run drivers of natural gas consumption in the European Union using an ARDL bounds testing approach. The analysis incorporates GDP per capita, liquid fuel use, and solid fuel use as explanatory variables. Augmented Dickey–Fuller tests confirm mixed integration orders, allowing valid ARDL estimation. The results reveal a statistically significant long-run relationship (cointegration) between gas consumption and the energy–economic system. In the short run, the use of liquid fuel exerts a strong positive influence on gas demand, while the effects of GDP materialise only after a two-year lag. Solid fuels show a delayed substitutive impact, reflecting the ongoing transition from coal. An error correction model confirms rapid convergence to equilibrium, with 77% of deviations corrected within one period. Recursive residual and CUSUM tests indicate structural stability over time. These findings highlight the responsiveness of EU gas demand to both economic and policy signals, offering valuable insights for energy modelling and strategic planning under the European Green Deal. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-cedcfdc0ba0b431aac633172ca7053b0 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1996-1073 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Energies |
| spelling | doaj-art-cedcfdc0ba0b431aac633172ca7053b02025-08-20T03:35:37ZengMDPI AGEnergies1996-10732025-07-011814387610.3390/en18143876Gas in Transition: An ARDL Analysis of Economic and Fuel Drivers in the European UnionOlena Pavlova0Kostiantyn Pavlov1Oksana Liashenko2Andrzej Jamróz3Sławomir Kopeć4Faculty of Management, AGH University of Krakow, Al. Mickiewicz 30, 30-059 Kraków, PolandFaculty of Economics and Management, Lesya Ukrainka Volyn National University, Voli Ave, 13, Lutsk, 43025 Volyn Region, UkraineFaculty of Economics and Management, Lesya Ukrainka Volyn National University, Voli Ave, 13, Lutsk, 43025 Volyn Region, UkraineFaculty of Management, AGH University of Krakow, Al. Mickiewicz 30, 30-059 Kraków, PolandFaculty of Computer Science, AGH University of Krakow, Al. Mickiewicz 30, 30-059 Kraków, PolandThis study investigates the short- and long-run drivers of natural gas consumption in the European Union using an ARDL bounds testing approach. The analysis incorporates GDP per capita, liquid fuel use, and solid fuel use as explanatory variables. Augmented Dickey–Fuller tests confirm mixed integration orders, allowing valid ARDL estimation. The results reveal a statistically significant long-run relationship (cointegration) between gas consumption and the energy–economic system. In the short run, the use of liquid fuel exerts a strong positive influence on gas demand, while the effects of GDP materialise only after a two-year lag. Solid fuels show a delayed substitutive impact, reflecting the ongoing transition from coal. An error correction model confirms rapid convergence to equilibrium, with 77% of deviations corrected within one period. Recursive residual and CUSUM tests indicate structural stability over time. These findings highlight the responsiveness of EU gas demand to both economic and policy signals, offering valuable insights for energy modelling and strategic planning under the European Green Deal.https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/18/14/3876natural gas consumptionARDL modelcointegrationenergy transitionerror correctionEuropean Union |
| spellingShingle | Olena Pavlova Kostiantyn Pavlov Oksana Liashenko Andrzej Jamróz Sławomir Kopeć Gas in Transition: An ARDL Analysis of Economic and Fuel Drivers in the European Union Energies natural gas consumption ARDL model cointegration energy transition error correction European Union |
| title | Gas in Transition: An ARDL Analysis of Economic and Fuel Drivers in the European Union |
| title_full | Gas in Transition: An ARDL Analysis of Economic and Fuel Drivers in the European Union |
| title_fullStr | Gas in Transition: An ARDL Analysis of Economic and Fuel Drivers in the European Union |
| title_full_unstemmed | Gas in Transition: An ARDL Analysis of Economic and Fuel Drivers in the European Union |
| title_short | Gas in Transition: An ARDL Analysis of Economic and Fuel Drivers in the European Union |
| title_sort | gas in transition an ardl analysis of economic and fuel drivers in the european union |
| topic | natural gas consumption ARDL model cointegration energy transition error correction European Union |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/18/14/3876 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT olenapavlova gasintransitionanardlanalysisofeconomicandfueldriversintheeuropeanunion AT kostiantynpavlov gasintransitionanardlanalysisofeconomicandfueldriversintheeuropeanunion AT oksanaliashenko gasintransitionanardlanalysisofeconomicandfueldriversintheeuropeanunion AT andrzejjamroz gasintransitionanardlanalysisofeconomicandfueldriversintheeuropeanunion AT sławomirkopec gasintransitionanardlanalysisofeconomicandfueldriversintheeuropeanunion |