Patterns of Snow Drought Under Climate Change: From Dry to Warm Dominance
Abstract Global warming may trigger more frequent snow droughts (SD). SD can result from low total precipitation (dry‐SD), high temperatures leading to less solid precipitation (warm‐SD), or a combination of both (dry‐warm compound SD). Those three SD types threaten ecosystems differently. Neverthel...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2025-04-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL114641 |
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| author | Chuan Wang Zhi Li Nicolas Guyennon Yaning Chen Yupeng Li Qixiang Liang Yanfeng Di |
| author_facet | Chuan Wang Zhi Li Nicolas Guyennon Yaning Chen Yupeng Li Qixiang Liang Yanfeng Di |
| author_sort | Chuan Wang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Global warming may trigger more frequent snow droughts (SD). SD can result from low total precipitation (dry‐SD), high temperatures leading to less solid precipitation (warm‐SD), or a combination of both (dry‐warm compound SD). Those three SD types threaten ecosystems differently. Nevertheless, the regions dominated by SD types, the transition patterns, and future risks under climate change remain unclear. We investigated the dominance of the three SD types and their transition patterns across historical and future periods. By 2100, compared to 1981, the results project global increases in SD frequency by more than 3‐fold and 4‐fold under SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios, respectively. Moreover, the share of warm SD is increasing and projected to account for 65% of the three SD types by 2050. Compared to historical period, the probabilities of dry‐warm compound SD and warm SD in the future period is expected to increase by 3.7 and 6.6 times, respectively. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-cec07e4f876344818c6f263633b429c4 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-04-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-cec07e4f876344818c6f263633b429c42025-08-20T02:56:35ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072025-04-01528n/an/a10.1029/2025GL114641Patterns of Snow Drought Under Climate Change: From Dry to Warm DominanceChuan Wang0Zhi Li1Nicolas Guyennon2Yaning Chen3Yupeng Li4Qixiang Liang5Yanfeng Di6State Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Academy of Sciences Urumqi ChinaState Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Academy of Sciences Urumqi ChinaWater Research Institute National Research Council of Italy Montelibretti ItalyState Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Academy of Sciences Urumqi ChinaState Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Academy of Sciences Urumqi ChinaState Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Academy of Sciences Urumqi ChinaState Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Academy of Sciences Urumqi ChinaAbstract Global warming may trigger more frequent snow droughts (SD). SD can result from low total precipitation (dry‐SD), high temperatures leading to less solid precipitation (warm‐SD), or a combination of both (dry‐warm compound SD). Those three SD types threaten ecosystems differently. Nevertheless, the regions dominated by SD types, the transition patterns, and future risks under climate change remain unclear. We investigated the dominance of the three SD types and their transition patterns across historical and future periods. By 2100, compared to 1981, the results project global increases in SD frequency by more than 3‐fold and 4‐fold under SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios, respectively. Moreover, the share of warm SD is increasing and projected to account for 65% of the three SD types by 2050. Compared to historical period, the probabilities of dry‐warm compound SD and warm SD in the future period is expected to increase by 3.7 and 6.6 times, respectively.https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL114641snow droughtcompound eventsfuture projectionrisk |
| spellingShingle | Chuan Wang Zhi Li Nicolas Guyennon Yaning Chen Yupeng Li Qixiang Liang Yanfeng Di Patterns of Snow Drought Under Climate Change: From Dry to Warm Dominance Geophysical Research Letters snow drought compound events future projection risk |
| title | Patterns of Snow Drought Under Climate Change: From Dry to Warm Dominance |
| title_full | Patterns of Snow Drought Under Climate Change: From Dry to Warm Dominance |
| title_fullStr | Patterns of Snow Drought Under Climate Change: From Dry to Warm Dominance |
| title_full_unstemmed | Patterns of Snow Drought Under Climate Change: From Dry to Warm Dominance |
| title_short | Patterns of Snow Drought Under Climate Change: From Dry to Warm Dominance |
| title_sort | patterns of snow drought under climate change from dry to warm dominance |
| topic | snow drought compound events future projection risk |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL114641 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT chuanwang patternsofsnowdroughtunderclimatechangefromdrytowarmdominance AT zhili patternsofsnowdroughtunderclimatechangefromdrytowarmdominance AT nicolasguyennon patternsofsnowdroughtunderclimatechangefromdrytowarmdominance AT yaningchen patternsofsnowdroughtunderclimatechangefromdrytowarmdominance AT yupengli patternsofsnowdroughtunderclimatechangefromdrytowarmdominance AT qixiangliang patternsofsnowdroughtunderclimatechangefromdrytowarmdominance AT yanfengdi patternsofsnowdroughtunderclimatechangefromdrytowarmdominance |