Patterns of Snow Drought Under Climate Change: From Dry to Warm Dominance

Abstract Global warming may trigger more frequent snow droughts (SD). SD can result from low total precipitation (dry‐SD), high temperatures leading to less solid precipitation (warm‐SD), or a combination of both (dry‐warm compound SD). Those three SD types threaten ecosystems differently. Neverthel...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Chuan Wang, Zhi Li, Nicolas Guyennon, Yaning Chen, Yupeng Li, Qixiang Liang, Yanfeng Di
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2025-04-01
Series:Geophysical Research Letters
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL114641
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1850038495057281024
author Chuan Wang
Zhi Li
Nicolas Guyennon
Yaning Chen
Yupeng Li
Qixiang Liang
Yanfeng Di
author_facet Chuan Wang
Zhi Li
Nicolas Guyennon
Yaning Chen
Yupeng Li
Qixiang Liang
Yanfeng Di
author_sort Chuan Wang
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Global warming may trigger more frequent snow droughts (SD). SD can result from low total precipitation (dry‐SD), high temperatures leading to less solid precipitation (warm‐SD), or a combination of both (dry‐warm compound SD). Those three SD types threaten ecosystems differently. Nevertheless, the regions dominated by SD types, the transition patterns, and future risks under climate change remain unclear. We investigated the dominance of the three SD types and their transition patterns across historical and future periods. By 2100, compared to 1981, the results project global increases in SD frequency by more than 3‐fold and 4‐fold under SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios, respectively. Moreover, the share of warm SD is increasing and projected to account for 65% of the three SD types by 2050. Compared to historical period, the probabilities of dry‐warm compound SD and warm SD in the future period is expected to increase by 3.7 and 6.6 times, respectively.
format Article
id doaj-art-cec07e4f876344818c6f263633b429c4
institution DOAJ
issn 0094-8276
1944-8007
language English
publishDate 2025-04-01
publisher Wiley
record_format Article
series Geophysical Research Letters
spelling doaj-art-cec07e4f876344818c6f263633b429c42025-08-20T02:56:35ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072025-04-01528n/an/a10.1029/2025GL114641Patterns of Snow Drought Under Climate Change: From Dry to Warm DominanceChuan Wang0Zhi Li1Nicolas Guyennon2Yaning Chen3Yupeng Li4Qixiang Liang5Yanfeng Di6State Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Academy of Sciences Urumqi ChinaState Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Academy of Sciences Urumqi ChinaWater Research Institute National Research Council of Italy Montelibretti ItalyState Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Academy of Sciences Urumqi ChinaState Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Academy of Sciences Urumqi ChinaState Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Academy of Sciences Urumqi ChinaState Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Academy of Sciences Urumqi ChinaAbstract Global warming may trigger more frequent snow droughts (SD). SD can result from low total precipitation (dry‐SD), high temperatures leading to less solid precipitation (warm‐SD), or a combination of both (dry‐warm compound SD). Those three SD types threaten ecosystems differently. Nevertheless, the regions dominated by SD types, the transition patterns, and future risks under climate change remain unclear. We investigated the dominance of the three SD types and their transition patterns across historical and future periods. By 2100, compared to 1981, the results project global increases in SD frequency by more than 3‐fold and 4‐fold under SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios, respectively. Moreover, the share of warm SD is increasing and projected to account for 65% of the three SD types by 2050. Compared to historical period, the probabilities of dry‐warm compound SD and warm SD in the future period is expected to increase by 3.7 and 6.6 times, respectively.https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL114641snow droughtcompound eventsfuture projectionrisk
spellingShingle Chuan Wang
Zhi Li
Nicolas Guyennon
Yaning Chen
Yupeng Li
Qixiang Liang
Yanfeng Di
Patterns of Snow Drought Under Climate Change: From Dry to Warm Dominance
Geophysical Research Letters
snow drought
compound events
future projection
risk
title Patterns of Snow Drought Under Climate Change: From Dry to Warm Dominance
title_full Patterns of Snow Drought Under Climate Change: From Dry to Warm Dominance
title_fullStr Patterns of Snow Drought Under Climate Change: From Dry to Warm Dominance
title_full_unstemmed Patterns of Snow Drought Under Climate Change: From Dry to Warm Dominance
title_short Patterns of Snow Drought Under Climate Change: From Dry to Warm Dominance
title_sort patterns of snow drought under climate change from dry to warm dominance
topic snow drought
compound events
future projection
risk
url https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL114641
work_keys_str_mv AT chuanwang patternsofsnowdroughtunderclimatechangefromdrytowarmdominance
AT zhili patternsofsnowdroughtunderclimatechangefromdrytowarmdominance
AT nicolasguyennon patternsofsnowdroughtunderclimatechangefromdrytowarmdominance
AT yaningchen patternsofsnowdroughtunderclimatechangefromdrytowarmdominance
AT yupengli patternsofsnowdroughtunderclimatechangefromdrytowarmdominance
AT qixiangliang patternsofsnowdroughtunderclimatechangefromdrytowarmdominance
AT yanfengdi patternsofsnowdroughtunderclimatechangefromdrytowarmdominance