A Statistical–Dynamical Downscaling Technique for Wind Resource Mapping: A Regional Atmospheric-Circulation-Type Approach with Numerical Weather Prediction Modeling

Many Caribbean low-latitude small island states lack wind maps tailored to capture their wind features at high resolutions. However, high-resolution mesoscale modeling is computationally expensive. This study proposes a statistical–dynamical downscaling (SDD) method that integrates an atmospheric-ci...

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Main Authors: Xsitaaz T. Chadee, Naresh R. Seegobin, Ricardo M. Clarke
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2025-03-01
Series:Wind
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2674-032X/5/1/7
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author Xsitaaz T. Chadee
Naresh R. Seegobin
Ricardo M. Clarke
author_facet Xsitaaz T. Chadee
Naresh R. Seegobin
Ricardo M. Clarke
author_sort Xsitaaz T. Chadee
collection DOAJ
description Many Caribbean low-latitude small island states lack wind maps tailored to capture their wind features at high resolutions. However, high-resolution mesoscale modeling is computationally expensive. This study proposes a statistical–dynamical downscaling (SDD) method that integrates an atmospheric-circulation-type (CT) approach with a high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) model to map the wind resources of a case study, Trinidad and Tobago. The SDD method uses a novel wind class generation technique derived directly from reanalysis wind field patterns. For the Caribbean, 82 wind classes were defined from an atmospheric circulation catalog of seven types derived from 850 hPa daily wind fields from the NCEP-DOE reanalysis over 32 years. Each wind class was downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and weighted by frequency to produce 1 km × 1 km climatological wind maps. The 10 m wind maps, validated using measured wind data at Piarco and Crown Point, exhibit a small positive average bias (+0.5 m/s in wind speed and +11 W m<sup>−2</sup> in wind power density (WPD)) and capture the shape of the wind speed distributions and a significant proportion of the interannual variability. The 80 m wind map indicates from good to moderate wind resources, suitable for determining priority areas for a detailed wind measurement program in Trinidad and Tobago. The proposed SDD methodology is applicable to other regions worldwide beyond low-latitude tropical islands.
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institution Kabale University
issn 2674-032X
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spelling doaj-art-cea2318f879d4625b4793d37460258da2025-08-20T03:44:01ZengMDPI AGWind2674-032X2025-03-0151710.3390/wind5010007A Statistical–Dynamical Downscaling Technique for Wind Resource Mapping: A Regional Atmospheric-Circulation-Type Approach with Numerical Weather Prediction ModelingXsitaaz T. Chadee0Naresh R. Seegobin1Ricardo M. Clarke2Environmental Physics Lab, Department of Physics, Faculty of Science and Technology, The University of the West Indies, St. Augustine Campus, Circular Road, St. Augustine 330912, Trinidad and TobagoDepartment of Computing and Information Technology, Faculty of Science and Technology, The University of the West Indies, St. Augustine Campus, Circular Road, St. Augustine 330912, Trinidad and TobagoEnvironmental Physics Lab, Department of Physics, Faculty of Science and Technology, The University of the West Indies, St. Augustine Campus, Circular Road, St. Augustine 330912, Trinidad and TobagoMany Caribbean low-latitude small island states lack wind maps tailored to capture their wind features at high resolutions. However, high-resolution mesoscale modeling is computationally expensive. This study proposes a statistical–dynamical downscaling (SDD) method that integrates an atmospheric-circulation-type (CT) approach with a high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) model to map the wind resources of a case study, Trinidad and Tobago. The SDD method uses a novel wind class generation technique derived directly from reanalysis wind field patterns. For the Caribbean, 82 wind classes were defined from an atmospheric circulation catalog of seven types derived from 850 hPa daily wind fields from the NCEP-DOE reanalysis over 32 years. Each wind class was downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and weighted by frequency to produce 1 km × 1 km climatological wind maps. The 10 m wind maps, validated using measured wind data at Piarco and Crown Point, exhibit a small positive average bias (+0.5 m/s in wind speed and +11 W m<sup>−2</sup> in wind power density (WPD)) and capture the shape of the wind speed distributions and a significant proportion of the interannual variability. The 80 m wind map indicates from good to moderate wind resources, suitable for determining priority areas for a detailed wind measurement program in Trinidad and Tobago. The proposed SDD methodology is applicable to other regions worldwide beyond low-latitude tropical islands.https://www.mdpi.com/2674-032X/5/1/7wind mapnumerical weather prediction modelstatistical–dynamical downscalingatmospheric circulation typesmall islandtropical
spellingShingle Xsitaaz T. Chadee
Naresh R. Seegobin
Ricardo M. Clarke
A Statistical–Dynamical Downscaling Technique for Wind Resource Mapping: A Regional Atmospheric-Circulation-Type Approach with Numerical Weather Prediction Modeling
Wind
wind map
numerical weather prediction model
statistical–dynamical downscaling
atmospheric circulation type
small island
tropical
title A Statistical–Dynamical Downscaling Technique for Wind Resource Mapping: A Regional Atmospheric-Circulation-Type Approach with Numerical Weather Prediction Modeling
title_full A Statistical–Dynamical Downscaling Technique for Wind Resource Mapping: A Regional Atmospheric-Circulation-Type Approach with Numerical Weather Prediction Modeling
title_fullStr A Statistical–Dynamical Downscaling Technique for Wind Resource Mapping: A Regional Atmospheric-Circulation-Type Approach with Numerical Weather Prediction Modeling
title_full_unstemmed A Statistical–Dynamical Downscaling Technique for Wind Resource Mapping: A Regional Atmospheric-Circulation-Type Approach with Numerical Weather Prediction Modeling
title_short A Statistical–Dynamical Downscaling Technique for Wind Resource Mapping: A Regional Atmospheric-Circulation-Type Approach with Numerical Weather Prediction Modeling
title_sort statistical dynamical downscaling technique for wind resource mapping a regional atmospheric circulation type approach with numerical weather prediction modeling
topic wind map
numerical weather prediction model
statistical–dynamical downscaling
atmospheric circulation type
small island
tropical
url https://www.mdpi.com/2674-032X/5/1/7
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