How initial price history influences expectation formation in multi-asset experimental markets: An exploratory case study

We present an exploratory study on expectation formation in a controlled experimental setting. Participants predicted the prices of three risky assets, with their key information being the initial price history. Our research investigates the impact of the initial price history on overall price dynam...

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Main Authors: Kresta Aleš, Sedláková Michaela
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Sciendo 2025-06-01
Series:Economics and Business Review
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.18559/ebr.2025.2.1751
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author Kresta Aleš
Sedláková Michaela
author_facet Kresta Aleš
Sedláková Michaela
author_sort Kresta Aleš
collection DOAJ
description We present an exploratory study on expectation formation in a controlled experimental setting. Participants predicted the prices of three risky assets, with their key information being the initial price history. Our research investigates the impact of the initial price history on overall price dynamics and the participants’ coordination. We provide tentative evidence highlighting several key points. Firstly, a stable initial price history reduces asset price volatility. Secondly, the correlation between assets during the initial price history is crucial for price dynamics. Notably, two assets exhibited strong negative dependence, which significantly influenced participants’ expectations. It is important to note that this dependence persisted in subsequent price evolution. In general, the initial price history played a pivotal role in shaping participants’ expectations. Given the exploratory nature of this study, we acknowledge that these findings are preliminary and should be interpreted with caution. We also point to ways for future research to validate our initial findings.
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series Economics and Business Review
spelling doaj-art-ce9b8b35cdcc403e8188d16151d2fccf2025-08-20T03:27:21ZengSciendoEconomics and Business Review2450-00972025-06-0111273710.18559/ebr.2025.2.1751How initial price history influences expectation formation in multi-asset experimental markets: An exploratory case studyKresta Aleš0Sedláková Michaela1Department of Finance, VSB – Technical University of Ostrava, 17. listopadu 2172/15, 708 00 Ostrava – Poruba, Czech RepublicDepartment of Finance, VSB – Technical University of Ostrava, 17. listopadu 2172/15, 708 00 Ostrava – Poruba, Czech RepublicWe present an exploratory study on expectation formation in a controlled experimental setting. Participants predicted the prices of three risky assets, with their key information being the initial price history. Our research investigates the impact of the initial price history on overall price dynamics and the participants’ coordination. We provide tentative evidence highlighting several key points. Firstly, a stable initial price history reduces asset price volatility. Secondly, the correlation between assets during the initial price history is crucial for price dynamics. Notably, two assets exhibited strong negative dependence, which significantly influenced participants’ expectations. It is important to note that this dependence persisted in subsequent price evolution. In general, the initial price history played a pivotal role in shaping participants’ expectations. Given the exploratory nature of this study, we acknowledge that these findings are preliminary and should be interpreted with caution. We also point to ways for future research to validate our initial findings.https://doi.org/10.18559/ebr.2025.2.1751experimental economicsexpectationsasset pricingc92d84g12g41
spellingShingle Kresta Aleš
Sedláková Michaela
How initial price history influences expectation formation in multi-asset experimental markets: An exploratory case study
Economics and Business Review
experimental economics
expectations
asset pricing
c92
d84
g12
g41
title How initial price history influences expectation formation in multi-asset experimental markets: An exploratory case study
title_full How initial price history influences expectation formation in multi-asset experimental markets: An exploratory case study
title_fullStr How initial price history influences expectation formation in multi-asset experimental markets: An exploratory case study
title_full_unstemmed How initial price history influences expectation formation in multi-asset experimental markets: An exploratory case study
title_short How initial price history influences expectation formation in multi-asset experimental markets: An exploratory case study
title_sort how initial price history influences expectation formation in multi asset experimental markets an exploratory case study
topic experimental economics
expectations
asset pricing
c92
d84
g12
g41
url https://doi.org/10.18559/ebr.2025.2.1751
work_keys_str_mv AT krestaales howinitialpricehistoryinfluencesexpectationformationinmultiassetexperimentalmarketsanexploratorycasestudy
AT sedlakovamichaela howinitialpricehistoryinfluencesexpectationformationinmultiassetexperimentalmarketsanexploratorycasestudy