Study of COVID-19 cases with real data analysis
In this work, patients of corona virus disease 2019, known as COVID-19, have been studied in Pakistan and its neighboring countries Iran, India and Afghanistan through the mathematical model in the form of coupled system of five ordinary differential equations. Two types of equilibria, infection fre...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-02-01
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| Series: | Alexandria Engineering Journal |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1110016824014893 |
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| author | Wedad Albalawi Kottakkaran Sooppy Nisar Nadir Omer Adnan Aslam Takasar Hussain Muhammad Ozair Shahid Hussain Nida Hameed |
| author_facet | Wedad Albalawi Kottakkaran Sooppy Nisar Nadir Omer Adnan Aslam Takasar Hussain Muhammad Ozair Shahid Hussain Nida Hameed |
| author_sort | Wedad Albalawi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In this work, patients of corona virus disease 2019, known as COVID-19, have been studied in Pakistan and its neighboring countries Iran, India and Afghanistan through the mathematical model in the form of coupled system of five ordinary differential equations. Two types of equilibria, infection free and endemic, are obtained. After the calculation of reproduction number, global stability of disease free equilibrium is proved using Lyapunov function theory where as graph theoretic approach is utilized to discuss the ultimate behavior of infection present constant level. Moreover, robustness of the model has been verified by applying it on the real data of COVID-19. Parameter values are obtained through the model calibration with the actual data for each country. To recognize the crucial factors, in disseminating or controlling the disease, sensitivity analysis of the reproduction number is performed by calculating the ratios of relative change in the parameters and corresponding difference in the value of basic reproduction number. Statistical method, based on the development of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, has also been applied on the available data. After testing different ARIMA models, the best fitted ones are identified. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-ce811ee02fa441e986593cb001cd8e9c |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1110-0168 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Alexandria Engineering Journal |
| spelling | doaj-art-ce811ee02fa441e986593cb001cd8e9c2025-02-07T04:47:05ZengElsevierAlexandria Engineering Journal1110-01682025-02-01113672680Study of COVID-19 cases with real data analysisWedad Albalawi0Kottakkaran Sooppy Nisar1Nadir Omer2Adnan Aslam3Takasar Hussain4Muhammad Ozair5Shahid Hussain6Nida Hameed7Department of Mathematical Sciences, College of Science, Princess Nourah bint Abdulrahman University, P.O. Box 84428, Riyadh 11671, Saudi ArabiaDepartment of Mathematics, College of Science and Humanities in Al-Kharj, Prince Sattam Bin Abdulaziz University, Al-Kharj 11942, Saudi ArabiaDepartment of Information Systems, College of Computing and Information Technology, University of Bisha, Bisha 61922, Saudi ArabiaDepartment of Humanities and Sciences, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, National University of Sciences and Technology, H-12, Islamabad 44000, PakistanDepartment of Mathematics, COMSATS University Islamabad, Attock Campus, Attock, PakistanDepartment of Mathematics, COMSATS University Islamabad, Attock Campus, Attock, Pakistan; Corresponding author.Department of Mathematics, COMSATS University Islamabad, Attock Campus, Attock, PakistanDepartment of Mathematics, COMSATS University Islamabad, Attock Campus, Attock, PakistanIn this work, patients of corona virus disease 2019, known as COVID-19, have been studied in Pakistan and its neighboring countries Iran, India and Afghanistan through the mathematical model in the form of coupled system of five ordinary differential equations. Two types of equilibria, infection free and endemic, are obtained. After the calculation of reproduction number, global stability of disease free equilibrium is proved using Lyapunov function theory where as graph theoretic approach is utilized to discuss the ultimate behavior of infection present constant level. Moreover, robustness of the model has been verified by applying it on the real data of COVID-19. Parameter values are obtained through the model calibration with the actual data for each country. To recognize the crucial factors, in disseminating or controlling the disease, sensitivity analysis of the reproduction number is performed by calculating the ratios of relative change in the parameters and corresponding difference in the value of basic reproduction number. Statistical method, based on the development of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, has also been applied on the available data. After testing different ARIMA models, the best fitted ones are identified.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1110016824014893Mathematical modelEquilibrium pointsGlobal behaviorReal dataSensitivity analysisARIMA models |
| spellingShingle | Wedad Albalawi Kottakkaran Sooppy Nisar Nadir Omer Adnan Aslam Takasar Hussain Muhammad Ozair Shahid Hussain Nida Hameed Study of COVID-19 cases with real data analysis Alexandria Engineering Journal Mathematical model Equilibrium points Global behavior Real data Sensitivity analysis ARIMA models |
| title | Study of COVID-19 cases with real data analysis |
| title_full | Study of COVID-19 cases with real data analysis |
| title_fullStr | Study of COVID-19 cases with real data analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | Study of COVID-19 cases with real data analysis |
| title_short | Study of COVID-19 cases with real data analysis |
| title_sort | study of covid 19 cases with real data analysis |
| topic | Mathematical model Equilibrium points Global behavior Real data Sensitivity analysis ARIMA models |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1110016824014893 |
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