Neutral Mode Dominates the Forced Global and Regional Surface Temperature Response in the Past and Future
Abstract Using a large suite of Green's function perturbation experiments, we construct the emergent dynamical operator for surface temperature and extract the most excitable mode. The leading mode turns out to be the most dominant mode excited by the climate forcing of doubling CO2, alone capt...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2022-08-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL098788 |
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| author | Fukai Liu Jian Lu L. Ruby Leung |
| author_facet | Fukai Liu Jian Lu L. Ruby Leung |
| author_sort | Fukai Liu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Using a large suite of Green's function perturbation experiments, we construct the emergent dynamical operator for surface temperature and extract the most excitable mode. The leading mode turns out to be the most dominant mode excited by the climate forcing of doubling CO2, alone capturing 56% of the total spatial variances of the surface temperature response. The pattern of the leading mode is partly organized by the atmospheric annular modes in both hemispheres, and further modulated by the feedbacks from ocean circulations. Though derived from a single model, the leading mode can capture the spatio‐temporal variabilities of the global mean surface temperature over the past century in both the CMIP6 model simulations and observations. Moreover, the leading mode is most efficiently excited by radiative forcings from the midlatitude bands centered around 45°N and 25°S, where most human activities take place, suggesting the potency of human influence on the climate change. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-ce6f5176b9404d12b69ca4ea2fc7baeb |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2022-08-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-ce6f5176b9404d12b69ca4ea2fc7baeb2025-08-20T02:12:53ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072022-08-014915n/an/a10.1029/2022GL098788Neutral Mode Dominates the Forced Global and Regional Surface Temperature Response in the Past and FutureFukai Liu0Jian Lu1L. Ruby Leung2Physical Oceanography Laboratory Frontier Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System (FDOMES) Ocean University of China Qingdao ChinaAtmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Richland WA USAAtmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Richland WA USAAbstract Using a large suite of Green's function perturbation experiments, we construct the emergent dynamical operator for surface temperature and extract the most excitable mode. The leading mode turns out to be the most dominant mode excited by the climate forcing of doubling CO2, alone capturing 56% of the total spatial variances of the surface temperature response. The pattern of the leading mode is partly organized by the atmospheric annular modes in both hemispheres, and further modulated by the feedbacks from ocean circulations. Though derived from a single model, the leading mode can capture the spatio‐temporal variabilities of the global mean surface temperature over the past century in both the CMIP6 model simulations and observations. Moreover, the leading mode is most efficiently excited by radiative forcings from the midlatitude bands centered around 45°N and 25°S, where most human activities take place, suggesting the potency of human influence on the climate change.https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL098788global warmingclimate sensitivityneutral modeoptimal forcing |
| spellingShingle | Fukai Liu Jian Lu L. Ruby Leung Neutral Mode Dominates the Forced Global and Regional Surface Temperature Response in the Past and Future Geophysical Research Letters global warming climate sensitivity neutral mode optimal forcing |
| title | Neutral Mode Dominates the Forced Global and Regional Surface Temperature Response in the Past and Future |
| title_full | Neutral Mode Dominates the Forced Global and Regional Surface Temperature Response in the Past and Future |
| title_fullStr | Neutral Mode Dominates the Forced Global and Regional Surface Temperature Response in the Past and Future |
| title_full_unstemmed | Neutral Mode Dominates the Forced Global and Regional Surface Temperature Response in the Past and Future |
| title_short | Neutral Mode Dominates the Forced Global and Regional Surface Temperature Response in the Past and Future |
| title_sort | neutral mode dominates the forced global and regional surface temperature response in the past and future |
| topic | global warming climate sensitivity neutral mode optimal forcing |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL098788 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT fukailiu neutralmodedominatestheforcedglobalandregionalsurfacetemperatureresponseinthepastandfuture AT jianlu neutralmodedominatestheforcedglobalandregionalsurfacetemperatureresponseinthepastandfuture AT lrubyleung neutralmodedominatestheforcedglobalandregionalsurfacetemperatureresponseinthepastandfuture |