Future projection of East Asian atmospheric rivers in high-resolution climate models
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) play a critical role in extreme precipitation in East Asia during the East Asian summer monsoon. While ARs are projected to increase in a warming climate, their regional changes in East Asia remain unclear partly due to the use of relatively coarse models. This study investi...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-06-01
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| Series: | Weather and Climate Extremes |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094725000349 |
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| author | Yeeun Kwon Seok-Woo Son |
| author_facet | Yeeun Kwon Seok-Woo Son |
| author_sort | Yeeun Kwon |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Atmospheric rivers (ARs) play a critical role in extreme precipitation in East Asia during the East Asian summer monsoon. While ARs are projected to increase in a warming climate, their regional changes in East Asia remain unclear partly due to the use of relatively coarse models. This study investigates future changes in East Asian ARs using high-resolution climate model simulations. The results show a robust increase in AR frequency and associated precipitation in East Asia in the near future (2025–2050). ARs are also projected to become more intense and persistent with a considerable increase in extreme precipitation, although the quantitative change slightly differs depending on the AR detection algorithms. Such changes are primarily driven by thermodynamic processes, with dynamic processes playing a secondary role. However, the dynamic processes, especially low-frequency circulation changes, contribute significantly to the inter-model spread, determining the uncertainty in the future projections of East Asian ARs. This finding helps to better understand future changes in AR and associated extreme precipitation in East Asia. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-ce6257f93f98464abb2f3dc3118046cc |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2212-0947 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Weather and Climate Extremes |
| spelling | doaj-art-ce6257f93f98464abb2f3dc3118046cc2025-08-20T01:51:55ZengElsevierWeather and Climate Extremes2212-09472025-06-014810077610.1016/j.wace.2025.100776Future projection of East Asian atmospheric rivers in high-resolution climate modelsYeeun Kwon0Seok-Woo Son1School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of KoreaCorresponding author.; School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of KoreaAtmospheric rivers (ARs) play a critical role in extreme precipitation in East Asia during the East Asian summer monsoon. While ARs are projected to increase in a warming climate, their regional changes in East Asia remain unclear partly due to the use of relatively coarse models. This study investigates future changes in East Asian ARs using high-resolution climate model simulations. The results show a robust increase in AR frequency and associated precipitation in East Asia in the near future (2025–2050). ARs are also projected to become more intense and persistent with a considerable increase in extreme precipitation, although the quantitative change slightly differs depending on the AR detection algorithms. Such changes are primarily driven by thermodynamic processes, with dynamic processes playing a secondary role. However, the dynamic processes, especially low-frequency circulation changes, contribute significantly to the inter-model spread, determining the uncertainty in the future projections of East Asian ARs. This finding helps to better understand future changes in AR and associated extreme precipitation in East Asia.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094725000349 |
| spellingShingle | Yeeun Kwon Seok-Woo Son Future projection of East Asian atmospheric rivers in high-resolution climate models Weather and Climate Extremes |
| title | Future projection of East Asian atmospheric rivers in high-resolution climate models |
| title_full | Future projection of East Asian atmospheric rivers in high-resolution climate models |
| title_fullStr | Future projection of East Asian atmospheric rivers in high-resolution climate models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Future projection of East Asian atmospheric rivers in high-resolution climate models |
| title_short | Future projection of East Asian atmospheric rivers in high-resolution climate models |
| title_sort | future projection of east asian atmospheric rivers in high resolution climate models |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094725000349 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT yeeunkwon futureprojectionofeastasianatmosphericriversinhighresolutionclimatemodels AT seokwooson futureprojectionofeastasianatmosphericriversinhighresolutionclimatemodels |