Challenges and strategies in meeting urban tree canopy targets: A scenario discovery analysis to guide urban forest planning in new developments
With increasing urban populations worldwide, new developments face ambitious tree canopy cover targets to mitigate urban heat, reduce stormwater runoff, support biodiversity, and promote health benefits. Achieving substantial tree canopy cover in dense urban areas is challenging due to space constra...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-03-01
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| Series: | Trees, Forests and People |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666719325000159 |
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| _version_ | 1825199292811313152 |
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| author | Raymundo Marcos Martinez Natthanij Soonsawad Mariana Dias Baptista Stephen Cook Guy Barnett Joseph Chee Tim Field Tim Muster |
| author_facet | Raymundo Marcos Martinez Natthanij Soonsawad Mariana Dias Baptista Stephen Cook Guy Barnett Joseph Chee Tim Field Tim Muster |
| author_sort | Raymundo Marcos Martinez |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | With increasing urban populations worldwide, new developments face ambitious tree canopy cover targets to mitigate urban heat, reduce stormwater runoff, support biodiversity, and promote health benefits. Achieving substantial tree canopy cover in dense urban areas is challenging due to space constraints and varying species performance. This study explores strategies for achieving a 40 % tree canopy cover target in a new development within the Western Sydney Aerotropolis Precinct, NSW, Australia, using scenario discovery analysis. We identified 54 climate-adapted tree species and analysed 1,372 scenarios considering tree spacing, mortality rates, and open space tree cover requirements. Using i-Tree Eco, we projected annual tree canopy growth over a 50-year period across seven urban typologies. Our results indicate that achieving the 40 % target is feasible only with a diverse mix of Australian native, indigenous, and exotic species and that tree mortality significantly impacts long-term canopy growth. While higher canopy cover in open spaces and effective species selection are crucial, the 40 % target remains difficult to achieve under most scenarios. Strategies to reduce net tree losses, optimise tree spacing, and implement effective landscape design are essential for substantial canopy cover. This research highlights the importance of promoting tree cover growth on private land and provides best practices for urban tree design, establishment, and management, offering insights transferable to other cities globally. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-cdfd98f5ee314c17ac297aa3f2c51ea4 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2666-7193 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Trees, Forests and People |
| spelling | doaj-art-cdfd98f5ee314c17ac297aa3f2c51ea42025-02-08T05:01:24ZengElsevierTrees, Forests and People2666-71932025-03-0119100787Challenges and strategies in meeting urban tree canopy targets: A scenario discovery analysis to guide urban forest planning in new developmentsRaymundo Marcos Martinez0Natthanij Soonsawad1Mariana Dias Baptista2Stephen Cook3Guy Barnett4Joseph Chee5Tim Field6Tim Muster7CSIRO Environment, Black Mountain, Canberra, 2601, Australia; Corresponding author.CSIRO Environment, Black Mountain, Canberra, 2601, AustraliaCSIRO Environment, Black Mountain, Canberra, 2601, AustraliaCSIRO Environment, Berrimah, Northern Territory, 0828, AustraliaCSIRO Environment, Black Mountain, Canberra, 2601, AustraliaPlace Design Group, Waterloo, New South Wales, 2017, AustraliaPlace Design Group, Waterloo, New South Wales, 2017, AustraliaCSIRO Environment, Urrbrae, South Australia, 5064, AustraliaWith increasing urban populations worldwide, new developments face ambitious tree canopy cover targets to mitigate urban heat, reduce stormwater runoff, support biodiversity, and promote health benefits. Achieving substantial tree canopy cover in dense urban areas is challenging due to space constraints and varying species performance. This study explores strategies for achieving a 40 % tree canopy cover target in a new development within the Western Sydney Aerotropolis Precinct, NSW, Australia, using scenario discovery analysis. We identified 54 climate-adapted tree species and analysed 1,372 scenarios considering tree spacing, mortality rates, and open space tree cover requirements. Using i-Tree Eco, we projected annual tree canopy growth over a 50-year period across seven urban typologies. Our results indicate that achieving the 40 % target is feasible only with a diverse mix of Australian native, indigenous, and exotic species and that tree mortality significantly impacts long-term canopy growth. While higher canopy cover in open spaces and effective species selection are crucial, the 40 % target remains difficult to achieve under most scenarios. Strategies to reduce net tree losses, optimise tree spacing, and implement effective landscape design are essential for substantial canopy cover. This research highlights the importance of promoting tree cover growth on private land and provides best practices for urban tree design, establishment, and management, offering insights transferable to other cities globally.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666719325000159Tree canopy coverScenario analysisSpecies selectionUrban forest planningSydney Science Park |
| spellingShingle | Raymundo Marcos Martinez Natthanij Soonsawad Mariana Dias Baptista Stephen Cook Guy Barnett Joseph Chee Tim Field Tim Muster Challenges and strategies in meeting urban tree canopy targets: A scenario discovery analysis to guide urban forest planning in new developments Trees, Forests and People Tree canopy cover Scenario analysis Species selection Urban forest planning Sydney Science Park |
| title | Challenges and strategies in meeting urban tree canopy targets: A scenario discovery analysis to guide urban forest planning in new developments |
| title_full | Challenges and strategies in meeting urban tree canopy targets: A scenario discovery analysis to guide urban forest planning in new developments |
| title_fullStr | Challenges and strategies in meeting urban tree canopy targets: A scenario discovery analysis to guide urban forest planning in new developments |
| title_full_unstemmed | Challenges and strategies in meeting urban tree canopy targets: A scenario discovery analysis to guide urban forest planning in new developments |
| title_short | Challenges and strategies in meeting urban tree canopy targets: A scenario discovery analysis to guide urban forest planning in new developments |
| title_sort | challenges and strategies in meeting urban tree canopy targets a scenario discovery analysis to guide urban forest planning in new developments |
| topic | Tree canopy cover Scenario analysis Species selection Urban forest planning Sydney Science Park |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666719325000159 |
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