A Marginal Maximum Likelihood Approach for Hierarchical Simultaneous Autoregressive Models with Missing Data

Efficient estimation methods for simultaneous autoregressive (SAR) models with missing data in the response variable have been well explored in the literature. A common practice is introducing measurement error into SAR models to separate the noise component from the spatial process. However, prior...

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Main Authors: Anjana Wijayawardhana, David Gunawan, Thomas Suesse
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2024-12-01
Series:Mathematics
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Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/12/23/3870
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author Anjana Wijayawardhana
David Gunawan
Thomas Suesse
author_facet Anjana Wijayawardhana
David Gunawan
Thomas Suesse
author_sort Anjana Wijayawardhana
collection DOAJ
description Efficient estimation methods for simultaneous autoregressive (SAR) models with missing data in the response variable have been well explored in the literature. A common practice is introducing measurement error into SAR models to separate the noise component from the spatial process. However, prior studies have not considered incorporating measurement error into SAR models with missing data. Maximum likelihood estimation for such models, especially with large datasets, poses significant computational challenges. This paper proposes an efficient likelihood-based estimation method, the marginal maximum likelihood (ML), for estimating SAR models on large datasets with measurement errors and a high percentage of missing data in the response variable. The spatial autoregressive model (SAM) and the spatial error model (SEM), two popular SAR model types, are considered. The missing data mechanism is assumed to follow a missing-at-random (MAR) pattern. We propose a fast method for marginal ML estimation with a computational complexity of <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><mi>O</mi><mo>(</mo><msup><mi>n</mi><mrow><mn>3</mn><mo>/</mo><mn>2</mn></mrow></msup><mo>)</mo></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula>, where <i>n</i> is the total number of observations. This complexity applies when the spatial weight matrix is constructed based on a local neighbourhood structure. The effectiveness of the proposed methods is demonstrated through simulations and real-world data applications.
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spelling doaj-art-cdfcbca586214abda93ea96fbb36da4e2025-08-20T02:50:38ZengMDPI AGMathematics2227-73902024-12-011223387010.3390/math12233870A Marginal Maximum Likelihood Approach for Hierarchical Simultaneous Autoregressive Models with Missing DataAnjana Wijayawardhana0David Gunawan1Thomas Suesse2School of Mathematics and Applied Statistics, University of Wollongong, Wollongong 2522, AustraliaSchool of Mathematics and Applied Statistics, University of Wollongong, Wollongong 2522, AustraliaSchool of Mathematics and Applied Statistics, University of Wollongong, Wollongong 2522, AustraliaEfficient estimation methods for simultaneous autoregressive (SAR) models with missing data in the response variable have been well explored in the literature. A common practice is introducing measurement error into SAR models to separate the noise component from the spatial process. However, prior studies have not considered incorporating measurement error into SAR models with missing data. Maximum likelihood estimation for such models, especially with large datasets, poses significant computational challenges. This paper proposes an efficient likelihood-based estimation method, the marginal maximum likelihood (ML), for estimating SAR models on large datasets with measurement errors and a high percentage of missing data in the response variable. The spatial autoregressive model (SAM) and the spatial error model (SEM), two popular SAR model types, are considered. The missing data mechanism is assumed to follow a missing-at-random (MAR) pattern. We propose a fast method for marginal ML estimation with a computational complexity of <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><mi>O</mi><mo>(</mo><msup><mi>n</mi><mrow><mn>3</mn><mo>/</mo><mn>2</mn></mrow></msup><mo>)</mo></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula>, where <i>n</i> is the total number of observations. This complexity applies when the spatial weight matrix is constructed based on a local neighbourhood structure. The effectiveness of the proposed methods is demonstrated through simulations and real-world data applications.https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/12/23/3870spatial error modelspatial autoregressive modelmeasurement errorsmarginal likelihoodcomputational complexity
spellingShingle Anjana Wijayawardhana
David Gunawan
Thomas Suesse
A Marginal Maximum Likelihood Approach for Hierarchical Simultaneous Autoregressive Models with Missing Data
Mathematics
spatial error model
spatial autoregressive model
measurement errors
marginal likelihood
computational complexity
title A Marginal Maximum Likelihood Approach for Hierarchical Simultaneous Autoregressive Models with Missing Data
title_full A Marginal Maximum Likelihood Approach for Hierarchical Simultaneous Autoregressive Models with Missing Data
title_fullStr A Marginal Maximum Likelihood Approach for Hierarchical Simultaneous Autoregressive Models with Missing Data
title_full_unstemmed A Marginal Maximum Likelihood Approach for Hierarchical Simultaneous Autoregressive Models with Missing Data
title_short A Marginal Maximum Likelihood Approach for Hierarchical Simultaneous Autoregressive Models with Missing Data
title_sort marginal maximum likelihood approach for hierarchical simultaneous autoregressive models with missing data
topic spatial error model
spatial autoregressive model
measurement errors
marginal likelihood
computational complexity
url https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/12/23/3870
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