Risk Assessment Model for Metro Station Stair and Escalator Operation Systems Based on Bayesian Network
[Objective] As the critical passenger flow bottlenecks and risk points within metro station, SEO (stair and escalator operation) systems are characterized by high pedestrian density, diverse pedestrian behaviors, frequent passenger injury incidents, and significant accident consequences. Therefore,...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | zho |
| Published: |
Urban Mass Transit Magazine Press
2025-06-01
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| Series: | Chengshi guidao jiaotong yanjiu |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://umt1998.tongji.edu.cn/journal/paper/doi/10.16037/j.1007-869x.20230633.html |
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| Summary: | [Objective] As the critical passenger flow bottlenecks and risk points within metro station, SEO (stair and escalator operation) systems are characterized by high pedestrian density, diverse pedestrian behaviors, frequent passenger injury incidents, and significant accident consequences. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a risk assessment model for these systems and evaluate their associated risks. [Method] The SEO system is divided into two subsystems—stairs and escalators—and three functional units: buffering, walking, and dispersing. By comprehensively considering individual, group, facility, and environmental risk factors, eight risk description indicators are identified to assess the risk state of the SEO system, and a corresponding risk state equation is formulated. Bayesian theory is introduced to construct a system topology network for the risk state equation analysis. Taking Jing′an Temple Station on Shanghai Rail Transit Line 2 as a case study, the probability of accidents within SEO system is calculated, and the importance ranking of risk factors is determined. [Result & Conclusion] Pedestrian flow density is the most significant risk factor for the escalator buffering unit, with an importance of 6.49%. The proportion of vulnerable groups is the second most significant risk factor for the escalator buffering unit, with an importance of 4.74%. The directional conflict coefficient is the most significant risk factor for both the stair walking unit and the stair buffering-dispersing unit, with importance values of 11.54% and 9.42%, respectively. The time since last maintenance is the most significant risk factor for the escalator walking unit, with an importance of 5.02%, while the proportion of abnormal behavior ranks second at 4.50% in this regard. The proportion of passengers carrying heavy loads is the most significant risk factor for the escalator dispersing unit, with an importance of 6.92%. |
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| ISSN: | 1007-869X |