Effectiveness of joint species distribution models in the presence of imperfect detection

Abstract Joint species distribution models (JSDMs) are a recent development in biogeography and enable the spatial modelling of multiple species and their interactions and dependencies. However, most models do not consider imperfect detection, which can significantly bias estimates. This is one of t...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Stephanie Elizabeth Hogg, Yan Wang, Lewi Stone
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2021-08-01
Series:Methods in Ecology and Evolution
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.13614
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1825206751061868544
author Stephanie Elizabeth Hogg
Yan Wang
Lewi Stone
author_facet Stephanie Elizabeth Hogg
Yan Wang
Lewi Stone
author_sort Stephanie Elizabeth Hogg
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Joint species distribution models (JSDMs) are a recent development in biogeography and enable the spatial modelling of multiple species and their interactions and dependencies. However, most models do not consider imperfect detection, which can significantly bias estimates. This is one of the first papers to account for imperfect detection when fitting data with JSDMs and to explore the complications that may arise. A multivariate probit JSDM that explicitly accounts for imperfect detection is proposed, and implemented using a Bayesian hierarchical approach. We investigate the performance of the JSDM in the presence of imperfect detection for a range of factors, including varied levels of detection and species occupancy, and varied numbers of survey sites and replications. To understand how effective this JSDM is in practice, we also compare results to those from a JSDM that does not explicitly model detection but instead makes use of ‘collapsed data’. A case study of owls and gliders in Victoria, Australia, is also illustrated. Using simulations, we found that the JSDMs explicitly accounting for detection can accurately estimate intrinsic correlation between species with enough survey sites and replications. Reducing the number of survey sites decreases the precision of estimates, while reducing the number of survey replications can lead to biased estimates. For low probabilities of detection, the model may require a large number of survey replications to remove bias from estimates. However, JSDMs not explicitly accounting for detection may have a limited ability to disentangle detection from occupancy, which substantially reduces their ability to accurately infer the species distribution spatially. Our case study showed positive correlation between Sooty Owls and Greater Gliders, despite a low number of survey replications. To avoid biased estimates of inter‐species correlations and species distributions, imperfect detection needs to be considered. However, for low probability of detection, the JSDMs explicitly accounting for detection is data hungry. Estimates from such models may still be subject to bias. To overcome the bias, researchers need to carefully design surveys and choose appropriate modelling approaches. The survey design should ensure sufficient survey replications for unbiased inferences on species inter‐dependencies and occupancy.
format Article
id doaj-art-cdb849d26f6f444db8b0a0b968583a99
institution Kabale University
issn 2041-210X
language English
publishDate 2021-08-01
publisher Wiley
record_format Article
series Methods in Ecology and Evolution
spelling doaj-art-cdb849d26f6f444db8b0a0b968583a992025-02-07T06:21:05ZengWileyMethods in Ecology and Evolution2041-210X2021-08-011281458147410.1111/2041-210X.13614Effectiveness of joint species distribution models in the presence of imperfect detectionStephanie Elizabeth Hogg0Yan Wang1Lewi Stone2Mathematics School of Science RMIT Melbourne AustraliaMathematics School of Science RMIT Melbourne AustraliaMathematics School of Science RMIT Melbourne AustraliaAbstract Joint species distribution models (JSDMs) are a recent development in biogeography and enable the spatial modelling of multiple species and their interactions and dependencies. However, most models do not consider imperfect detection, which can significantly bias estimates. This is one of the first papers to account for imperfect detection when fitting data with JSDMs and to explore the complications that may arise. A multivariate probit JSDM that explicitly accounts for imperfect detection is proposed, and implemented using a Bayesian hierarchical approach. We investigate the performance of the JSDM in the presence of imperfect detection for a range of factors, including varied levels of detection and species occupancy, and varied numbers of survey sites and replications. To understand how effective this JSDM is in practice, we also compare results to those from a JSDM that does not explicitly model detection but instead makes use of ‘collapsed data’. A case study of owls and gliders in Victoria, Australia, is also illustrated. Using simulations, we found that the JSDMs explicitly accounting for detection can accurately estimate intrinsic correlation between species with enough survey sites and replications. Reducing the number of survey sites decreases the precision of estimates, while reducing the number of survey replications can lead to biased estimates. For low probabilities of detection, the model may require a large number of survey replications to remove bias from estimates. However, JSDMs not explicitly accounting for detection may have a limited ability to disentangle detection from occupancy, which substantially reduces their ability to accurately infer the species distribution spatially. Our case study showed positive correlation between Sooty Owls and Greater Gliders, despite a low number of survey replications. To avoid biased estimates of inter‐species correlations and species distributions, imperfect detection needs to be considered. However, for low probability of detection, the JSDMs explicitly accounting for detection is data hungry. Estimates from such models may still be subject to bias. To overcome the bias, researchers need to carefully design surveys and choose appropriate modelling approaches. The survey design should ensure sufficient survey replications for unbiased inferences on species inter‐dependencies and occupancy.https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.13614detection probabilityimperfect detectioninter‐species correlationjoint species distribution modelmultivariate probitoccupancy model
spellingShingle Stephanie Elizabeth Hogg
Yan Wang
Lewi Stone
Effectiveness of joint species distribution models in the presence of imperfect detection
Methods in Ecology and Evolution
detection probability
imperfect detection
inter‐species correlation
joint species distribution model
multivariate probit
occupancy model
title Effectiveness of joint species distribution models in the presence of imperfect detection
title_full Effectiveness of joint species distribution models in the presence of imperfect detection
title_fullStr Effectiveness of joint species distribution models in the presence of imperfect detection
title_full_unstemmed Effectiveness of joint species distribution models in the presence of imperfect detection
title_short Effectiveness of joint species distribution models in the presence of imperfect detection
title_sort effectiveness of joint species distribution models in the presence of imperfect detection
topic detection probability
imperfect detection
inter‐species correlation
joint species distribution model
multivariate probit
occupancy model
url https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.13614
work_keys_str_mv AT stephanieelizabethhogg effectivenessofjointspeciesdistributionmodelsinthepresenceofimperfectdetection
AT yanwang effectivenessofjointspeciesdistributionmodelsinthepresenceofimperfectdetection
AT lewistone effectivenessofjointspeciesdistributionmodelsinthepresenceofimperfectdetection