Do Large Earthquakes Occur at Regular Intervals Through Time? A Perspective From the Geologic Record
Abstract We analyzed a catalog of 31 published earthquake chronologies to assess the commonality of quasiperiodic earthquake recurrence across a range of fault types and tectonic settings. The statistical approach we employ differs from previous methods in that it explicitly incorporates numeric unc...
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| Format: | Article |
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Wiley
2019-07-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083291 |
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| author | Randolph T. Williams Joshua R. Davis Laurel B. Goodwin |
| author_facet | Randolph T. Williams Joshua R. Davis Laurel B. Goodwin |
| author_sort | Randolph T. Williams |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract We analyzed a catalog of 31 published earthquake chronologies to assess the commonality of quasiperiodic earthquake recurrence across a range of fault types and tectonic settings. The statistical approach we employ differs from previous methods in that it explicitly incorporates numeric uncertainties in the earthquake chronologies while recognizing that random sequences of events (against which the chronologies are tested) may appear to be less disordered over the short time scales typical of most published records. Our results show that 58% of the chronologies support an interpretation of quasiperiodic recurrence (probability of random recurrence < 10%). These include strike‐slip, normal, and reverse faults in both plate‐boundary and intraplate environments, which exhibit evidence for quasiperiodic recurrence with comparable frequency. We conclude that quasiperiodic failure is likely the norm for faults in the seismogenic crust and that stress renewal is a first‐order control on fault rupture across a wide range of tectonic settings. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-cd32934852b74a4aa28b1856a6215a93 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2019-07-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-cd32934852b74a4aa28b1856a6215a932025-08-20T02:33:55ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072019-07-0146148074808110.1029/2019GL083291Do Large Earthquakes Occur at Regular Intervals Through Time? A Perspective From the Geologic RecordRandolph T. Williams0Joshua R. Davis1Laurel B. Goodwin2Department of Geoscience University of Wisconsin‐Madison Madison WI USADepartment of Mathematics and Statistics Carleton College Northfield MN USADepartment of Geoscience University of Wisconsin‐Madison Madison WI USAAbstract We analyzed a catalog of 31 published earthquake chronologies to assess the commonality of quasiperiodic earthquake recurrence across a range of fault types and tectonic settings. The statistical approach we employ differs from previous methods in that it explicitly incorporates numeric uncertainties in the earthquake chronologies while recognizing that random sequences of events (against which the chronologies are tested) may appear to be less disordered over the short time scales typical of most published records. Our results show that 58% of the chronologies support an interpretation of quasiperiodic recurrence (probability of random recurrence < 10%). These include strike‐slip, normal, and reverse faults in both plate‐boundary and intraplate environments, which exhibit evidence for quasiperiodic recurrence with comparable frequency. We conclude that quasiperiodic failure is likely the norm for faults in the seismogenic crust and that stress renewal is a first‐order control on fault rupture across a wide range of tectonic settings.https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083291earthquakesfault mechanicsrecurrencefaultsstatisticspaleoseismology |
| spellingShingle | Randolph T. Williams Joshua R. Davis Laurel B. Goodwin Do Large Earthquakes Occur at Regular Intervals Through Time? A Perspective From the Geologic Record Geophysical Research Letters earthquakes fault mechanics recurrence faults statistics paleoseismology |
| title | Do Large Earthquakes Occur at Regular Intervals Through Time? A Perspective From the Geologic Record |
| title_full | Do Large Earthquakes Occur at Regular Intervals Through Time? A Perspective From the Geologic Record |
| title_fullStr | Do Large Earthquakes Occur at Regular Intervals Through Time? A Perspective From the Geologic Record |
| title_full_unstemmed | Do Large Earthquakes Occur at Regular Intervals Through Time? A Perspective From the Geologic Record |
| title_short | Do Large Earthquakes Occur at Regular Intervals Through Time? A Perspective From the Geologic Record |
| title_sort | do large earthquakes occur at regular intervals through time a perspective from the geologic record |
| topic | earthquakes fault mechanics recurrence faults statistics paleoseismology |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083291 |
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