Application of a novel vegetation condition index using MODIS EVI for structuring crop index insurance under a smallholder system

Because of the ongoing pressure from climate change, there is a greater need for improved crop index insurance systems, and earth observation technology has made this possible. Accordingly, this study aims to develop a novel crop index insurance scheme using an innovative approach of developing a Ve...

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Main Authors: Andualem Aklilu Tesfaye, Daniel Edward Osgood, Berhane Gessesse Aweke
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2025-06-01
Series:Environmental and Sustainability Indicators
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Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2665972725001175
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author Andualem Aklilu Tesfaye
Daniel Edward Osgood
Berhane Gessesse Aweke
author_facet Andualem Aklilu Tesfaye
Daniel Edward Osgood
Berhane Gessesse Aweke
author_sort Andualem Aklilu Tesfaye
collection DOAJ
description Because of the ongoing pressure from climate change, there is a greater need for improved crop index insurance systems, and earth observation technology has made this possible. Accordingly, this study aims to develop a novel crop index insurance scheme using an innovative approach of developing a Vegetation Condition Index derived from Enhanced Vegetation Index (VCI-evi) that potentially addresses the limitations of existing products. This study is placed in a widely known drought-affected district of Ethiopia, the Amhara region. The study took advantage of a 16-day composite of MODIS EVI and a well-archived historical (2007–2022) in-situ data on drought prevalence, which is managed by the R4 crop insurance program, one of the well-established insurance schemes at a global scale. Across the study districts, using the VCI-evi variable, drought is predicted at a confidence interval greater than or equal to 99 %. The proposed approach is applied to establish index insurance parameters, notably, trigger and exit thresholds, as well as payout. Due to the wider prevalence of drought, which is strongly predicted and validated, across all the study villages in the years of 2015, 2016, 2018 and 2011, those years were identified as major drought years. Data on farmers’ bad years ranking was used to validate and revealed a higher level of agreement with model-predicted drought years. Therefore, the approach which is introduced in this study could be used to design an original index insurance scheme in several drought-prone systems offering increased reliability and enhanced scale-up.
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spelling doaj-art-cd1273c4596a4bc288e581c6c859864f2025-08-20T02:20:13ZengElsevierEnvironmental and Sustainability Indicators2665-97272025-06-012610069610.1016/j.indic.2025.100696Application of a novel vegetation condition index using MODIS EVI for structuring crop index insurance under a smallholder systemAndualem Aklilu Tesfaye0Daniel Edward Osgood1Berhane Gessesse Aweke2Department of Environment and Climate Change Management at ECSU, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia; Corresponding author.National Center for Disaster Preparedness (NCDP), Affiliate of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia Climate School, Columbia University, 475 Riverside Drive, Suite 401, New York, NY, 10115-0095, USADepartment Head of the Remote Sensing Unit at Ethiopian Space Science and Technology Institute, Addis Ababa University, EthiopiaBecause of the ongoing pressure from climate change, there is a greater need for improved crop index insurance systems, and earth observation technology has made this possible. Accordingly, this study aims to develop a novel crop index insurance scheme using an innovative approach of developing a Vegetation Condition Index derived from Enhanced Vegetation Index (VCI-evi) that potentially addresses the limitations of existing products. This study is placed in a widely known drought-affected district of Ethiopia, the Amhara region. The study took advantage of a 16-day composite of MODIS EVI and a well-archived historical (2007–2022) in-situ data on drought prevalence, which is managed by the R4 crop insurance program, one of the well-established insurance schemes at a global scale. Across the study districts, using the VCI-evi variable, drought is predicted at a confidence interval greater than or equal to 99 %. The proposed approach is applied to establish index insurance parameters, notably, trigger and exit thresholds, as well as payout. Due to the wider prevalence of drought, which is strongly predicted and validated, across all the study villages in the years of 2015, 2016, 2018 and 2011, those years were identified as major drought years. Data on farmers’ bad years ranking was used to validate and revealed a higher level of agreement with model-predicted drought years. Therefore, the approach which is introduced in this study could be used to design an original index insurance scheme in several drought-prone systems offering increased reliability and enhanced scale-up.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2665972725001175DroughtVegetation condition indexEnhanced vegetation indexMODISCrop index insuranceLogistic regression
spellingShingle Andualem Aklilu Tesfaye
Daniel Edward Osgood
Berhane Gessesse Aweke
Application of a novel vegetation condition index using MODIS EVI for structuring crop index insurance under a smallholder system
Environmental and Sustainability Indicators
Drought
Vegetation condition index
Enhanced vegetation index
MODIS
Crop index insurance
Logistic regression
title Application of a novel vegetation condition index using MODIS EVI for structuring crop index insurance under a smallholder system
title_full Application of a novel vegetation condition index using MODIS EVI for structuring crop index insurance under a smallholder system
title_fullStr Application of a novel vegetation condition index using MODIS EVI for structuring crop index insurance under a smallholder system
title_full_unstemmed Application of a novel vegetation condition index using MODIS EVI for structuring crop index insurance under a smallholder system
title_short Application of a novel vegetation condition index using MODIS EVI for structuring crop index insurance under a smallholder system
title_sort application of a novel vegetation condition index using modis evi for structuring crop index insurance under a smallholder system
topic Drought
Vegetation condition index
Enhanced vegetation index
MODIS
Crop index insurance
Logistic regression
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2665972725001175
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