The impact of realistic age structure in simple models of tuberculosis transmission.
<h4>Background</h4>Mathematical models of tuberculosis (TB) transmission have been used to characterize disease dynamics, investigate the potential effects of public health interventions, and prioritize control measures. While previous work has addressed the mathematical description of T...
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Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2010-01-01
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| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0008479&type=printable |
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| author | Ellen Brooks-Pollock Ted Cohen Megan Murray |
| author_facet | Ellen Brooks-Pollock Ted Cohen Megan Murray |
| author_sort | Ellen Brooks-Pollock |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <h4>Background</h4>Mathematical models of tuberculosis (TB) transmission have been used to characterize disease dynamics, investigate the potential effects of public health interventions, and prioritize control measures. While previous work has addressed the mathematical description of TB natural history, the impact of demography on the behaviour of TB models has not been assessed.<h4>Methods</h4>A simple model of TB transmission, with alternative assumptions about survivorship, is used to explore the effect of age structure on the prevalence of infection, disease, basic reproductive ratio and the projected impact of control interventions. We focus our analytic arguments on the differences between constant and exponentially distributed lifespans and use an individual-based model to investigate the range of behaviour arising from realistic distributions of survivorship.<h4>Results</h4>The choice of age structure and natural (non-disease related) mortality strongly affects steady-state dynamics, parameter estimation and predictions about the effectiveness of control interventions. Since most individuals infected with TB develop an asymptomatic latent infection and never progress to active disease, we find that assuming a constant mortality rate results in a larger reproductive ratio and an overestimation of the effort required for disease control in comparison to using more realistic age-specific mortality rates.<h4>Conclusions</h4>Demographic modelling assumptions should be considered in the interpretation of models of chronic infectious diseases such as TB. For simple models, we find that assuming constant lifetimes, rather than exponential lifetimes, produces dynamics more representative of models with realistic age structure. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-cd0f3845d13e41d386a51e86b2471e93 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2010-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj-art-cd0f3845d13e41d386a51e86b2471e932025-08-20T02:31:51ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032010-01-0151e847910.1371/journal.pone.0008479The impact of realistic age structure in simple models of tuberculosis transmission.Ellen Brooks-PollockTed CohenMegan Murray<h4>Background</h4>Mathematical models of tuberculosis (TB) transmission have been used to characterize disease dynamics, investigate the potential effects of public health interventions, and prioritize control measures. While previous work has addressed the mathematical description of TB natural history, the impact of demography on the behaviour of TB models has not been assessed.<h4>Methods</h4>A simple model of TB transmission, with alternative assumptions about survivorship, is used to explore the effect of age structure on the prevalence of infection, disease, basic reproductive ratio and the projected impact of control interventions. We focus our analytic arguments on the differences between constant and exponentially distributed lifespans and use an individual-based model to investigate the range of behaviour arising from realistic distributions of survivorship.<h4>Results</h4>The choice of age structure and natural (non-disease related) mortality strongly affects steady-state dynamics, parameter estimation and predictions about the effectiveness of control interventions. Since most individuals infected with TB develop an asymptomatic latent infection and never progress to active disease, we find that assuming a constant mortality rate results in a larger reproductive ratio and an overestimation of the effort required for disease control in comparison to using more realistic age-specific mortality rates.<h4>Conclusions</h4>Demographic modelling assumptions should be considered in the interpretation of models of chronic infectious diseases such as TB. For simple models, we find that assuming constant lifetimes, rather than exponential lifetimes, produces dynamics more representative of models with realistic age structure.https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0008479&type=printable |
| spellingShingle | Ellen Brooks-Pollock Ted Cohen Megan Murray The impact of realistic age structure in simple models of tuberculosis transmission. PLoS ONE |
| title | The impact of realistic age structure in simple models of tuberculosis transmission. |
| title_full | The impact of realistic age structure in simple models of tuberculosis transmission. |
| title_fullStr | The impact of realistic age structure in simple models of tuberculosis transmission. |
| title_full_unstemmed | The impact of realistic age structure in simple models of tuberculosis transmission. |
| title_short | The impact of realistic age structure in simple models of tuberculosis transmission. |
| title_sort | impact of realistic age structure in simple models of tuberculosis transmission |
| url | https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0008479&type=printable |
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