SPI-based drought characteristics using CHIRPS over Zambia: 1981–2024
Droughts are becoming more frequent, intense and severe. However, there is lack of information on the drought characteristics in developing countries like Zambia. Further, the spatio-temporal changes in drought characteristics have received little consideration in relation to meteorological and agri...
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Taylor & Francis Group
2025-12-01
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| Series: | All Earth |
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| Online Access: | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/27669645.2025.2472574 |
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| author | Charles Bwalya Chisanga Edson Nkonde Kabwe H. Mubanga Darius Phiri Abel Chemura Harison K. Kipkulei |
| author_facet | Charles Bwalya Chisanga Edson Nkonde Kabwe H. Mubanga Darius Phiri Abel Chemura Harison K. Kipkulei |
| author_sort | Charles Bwalya Chisanga |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Droughts are becoming more frequent, intense and severe. However, there is lack of information on the drought characteristics in developing countries like Zambia. Further, the spatio-temporal changes in drought characteristics have received little consideration in relation to meteorological and agricultural droughts. Therefore, the aim of this study was to assess Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)-based drought characteristics (events, duration, inter-arrival time, magnitude and severity) across Agro-ecological Regions in Zambia. The climate_indices python package was applied in computing SPI based on Gamma distribution at 1-, 3- and 6-month/s timescales using CHIRPS v2 data from 1981–2024 for ONDJFM. Drought thresholds of SPI < −1.2 were computed using the theory of runs. Results show that inter-arrival time at SPI-1, SPI-3 and SPI-6 exhibited significant increasing trends (p-value <0.05). However, drought events, magnitude and duration at SPI-6 exhibits significant decreasing trends. The combined drought categories increases from SPI-6 (19,392) followed by SPI-3 (19,619) and SPI-1 (20,260). The detected drought conditions from 1981–2024 was moderately dry. It is therefore, short-term water deficits of up to 6 months are increasing in Zambia and thus they have to be considered in agricultural management, drought assessment and in informing policy, National Development Plan and National Adaptation Plans. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-ccd8aef099204a218e02a14775f7f9e3 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2766-9645 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-12-01 |
| publisher | Taylor & Francis Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | All Earth |
| spelling | doaj-art-ccd8aef099204a218e02a14775f7f9e32025-08-20T02:30:05ZengTaylor & Francis GroupAll Earth2766-96452025-12-0137111910.1080/27669645.2025.2472574SPI-based drought characteristics using CHIRPS over Zambia: 1981–2024Charles Bwalya Chisanga0Edson Nkonde1Kabwe H. Mubanga2Darius Phiri3Abel Chemura4Harison K. Kipkulei5School of Natural Resources, Plant and Environmental Sciences, Copperbelt University, Kitwe, ZambiaZambia Meteorological Department (ZMD), Ministry of Green Economy and Environment, Lusaka, ZambiaSchool of Natural Sciences, Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Zambia, Lusaka, ZambiaSchool of Natural Resources, Plant and Environmental Sciences, Copperbelt University, Kitwe, ZambiaPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, GermanyDepartment of Geomatic Engineering and Geospatial Information Systems, Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology, Nairobi, KenyaDroughts are becoming more frequent, intense and severe. However, there is lack of information on the drought characteristics in developing countries like Zambia. Further, the spatio-temporal changes in drought characteristics have received little consideration in relation to meteorological and agricultural droughts. Therefore, the aim of this study was to assess Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)-based drought characteristics (events, duration, inter-arrival time, magnitude and severity) across Agro-ecological Regions in Zambia. The climate_indices python package was applied in computing SPI based on Gamma distribution at 1-, 3- and 6-month/s timescales using CHIRPS v2 data from 1981–2024 for ONDJFM. Drought thresholds of SPI < −1.2 were computed using the theory of runs. Results show that inter-arrival time at SPI-1, SPI-3 and SPI-6 exhibited significant increasing trends (p-value <0.05). However, drought events, magnitude and duration at SPI-6 exhibits significant decreasing trends. The combined drought categories increases from SPI-6 (19,392) followed by SPI-3 (19,619) and SPI-1 (20,260). The detected drought conditions from 1981–2024 was moderately dry. It is therefore, short-term water deficits of up to 6 months are increasing in Zambia and thus they have to be considered in agricultural management, drought assessment and in informing policy, National Development Plan and National Adaptation Plans.https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/27669645.2025.2472574CHIRPSdroughtSPIrun theorysouthern Africa |
| spellingShingle | Charles Bwalya Chisanga Edson Nkonde Kabwe H. Mubanga Darius Phiri Abel Chemura Harison K. Kipkulei SPI-based drought characteristics using CHIRPS over Zambia: 1981–2024 All Earth CHIRPS drought SPI run theory southern Africa |
| title | SPI-based drought characteristics using CHIRPS over Zambia: 1981–2024 |
| title_full | SPI-based drought characteristics using CHIRPS over Zambia: 1981–2024 |
| title_fullStr | SPI-based drought characteristics using CHIRPS over Zambia: 1981–2024 |
| title_full_unstemmed | SPI-based drought characteristics using CHIRPS over Zambia: 1981–2024 |
| title_short | SPI-based drought characteristics using CHIRPS over Zambia: 1981–2024 |
| title_sort | spi based drought characteristics using chirps over zambia 1981 2024 |
| topic | CHIRPS drought SPI run theory southern Africa |
| url | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/27669645.2025.2472574 |
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