SPI-based drought characteristics using CHIRPS over Zambia: 1981–2024
Droughts are becoming more frequent, intense and severe. However, there is lack of information on the drought characteristics in developing countries like Zambia. Further, the spatio-temporal changes in drought characteristics have received little consideration in relation to meteorological and agri...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Taylor & Francis Group
2025-12-01
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| Series: | All Earth |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/27669645.2025.2472574 |
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| Summary: | Droughts are becoming more frequent, intense and severe. However, there is lack of information on the drought characteristics in developing countries like Zambia. Further, the spatio-temporal changes in drought characteristics have received little consideration in relation to meteorological and agricultural droughts. Therefore, the aim of this study was to assess Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)-based drought characteristics (events, duration, inter-arrival time, magnitude and severity) across Agro-ecological Regions in Zambia. The climate_indices python package was applied in computing SPI based on Gamma distribution at 1-, 3- and 6-month/s timescales using CHIRPS v2 data from 1981–2024 for ONDJFM. Drought thresholds of SPI < −1.2 were computed using the theory of runs. Results show that inter-arrival time at SPI-1, SPI-3 and SPI-6 exhibited significant increasing trends (p-value <0.05). However, drought events, magnitude and duration at SPI-6 exhibits significant decreasing trends. The combined drought categories increases from SPI-6 (19,392) followed by SPI-3 (19,619) and SPI-1 (20,260). The detected drought conditions from 1981–2024 was moderately dry. It is therefore, short-term water deficits of up to 6 months are increasing in Zambia and thus they have to be considered in agricultural management, drought assessment and in informing policy, National Development Plan and National Adaptation Plans. |
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| ISSN: | 2766-9645 |