Using Quantile Regression Approach to Analyze Price Movements of Agricultural Products in China
This paper studies how the price movements of pork, chicken and egg respond to those of related cost factors in short terms in Chinese market. We employ a linear quantile approach not only to explore potential data heteroscedasticity but also to generate confidence bands for the purpose of price sta...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
2012-04-01
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| Series: | Journal of Integrative Agriculture |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2095311912600550 |
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| author | Gan-qiong LI Shi-wei XU Zhe-min LI Yi-guo SUN Xiao-xia DONG |
| author_facet | Gan-qiong LI Shi-wei XU Zhe-min LI Yi-guo SUN Xiao-xia DONG |
| author_sort | Gan-qiong LI |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This paper studies how the price movements of pork, chicken and egg respond to those of related cost factors in short terms in Chinese market. We employ a linear quantile approach not only to explore potential data heteroscedasticity but also to generate confidence bands for the purpose of price stability study. We then evaluate our models by comparing the prediction intervals generated from the quantile regression models with in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts. Using monthly data from January 2000 to October 2010, we observed these findings: (i) the price changes of cost factors asymmetrically and unequally influence those of the livestock across different quantiles; (ii) the performance of our models is robust and consistent for both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts; (iii) the confidence intervals generated from 0.05th and 0.95th quantile regression models are good methods to forecast livestock price fluctuation. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-cc484837fb524ade9578587bf6680c4e |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2095-3119 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2012-04-01 |
| publisher | KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Integrative Agriculture |
| spelling | doaj-art-cc484837fb524ade9578587bf6680c4e2025-08-20T03:58:54ZengKeAi Communications Co., Ltd.Journal of Integrative Agriculture2095-31192012-04-0111467468310.1016/S2095-3119(12)60055-0Using Quantile Regression Approach to Analyze Price Movements of Agricultural Products in ChinaGan-qiong LI0Shi-wei XU1Zhe-min LI2Yi-guo SUN3Xiao-xia DONG4Agricultural Information Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences/Key Laboratory of Agri-information Service Technology, Ministry of Agriculture/Key Laboratory of Digital Agricultural Early Warning Technology and System, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, P.R. China; LI Gan-qiong, Tel: +86-10-82109349-8Agricultural Information Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences/Key Laboratory of Agri-information Service Technology, Ministry of Agriculture/Key Laboratory of Digital Agricultural Early Warning Technology and System, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, P.R. China; Correspondence XU Shi-wei, Tel: +86-10-82109902Agricultural Information Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences/Key Laboratory of Agri-information Service Technology, Ministry of Agriculture/Key Laboratory of Digital Agricultural Early Warning Technology and System, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, P.R. ChinaDepartment of Economics, University of Guelph, Ontario N1G2W1, CanadaAgricultural Information Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences/Key Laboratory of Agri-information Service Technology, Ministry of Agriculture/Key Laboratory of Digital Agricultural Early Warning Technology and System, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, P.R. ChinaThis paper studies how the price movements of pork, chicken and egg respond to those of related cost factors in short terms in Chinese market. We employ a linear quantile approach not only to explore potential data heteroscedasticity but also to generate confidence bands for the purpose of price stability study. We then evaluate our models by comparing the prediction intervals generated from the quantile regression models with in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts. Using monthly data from January 2000 to October 2010, we observed these findings: (i) the price changes of cost factors asymmetrically and unequally influence those of the livestock across different quantiles; (ii) the performance of our models is robust and consistent for both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts; (iii) the confidence intervals generated from 0.05th and 0.95th quantile regression models are good methods to forecast livestock price fluctuation.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2095311912600550cost factorsagricultural productsforecastingprice movementsquantile regression model |
| spellingShingle | Gan-qiong LI Shi-wei XU Zhe-min LI Yi-guo SUN Xiao-xia DONG Using Quantile Regression Approach to Analyze Price Movements of Agricultural Products in China Journal of Integrative Agriculture cost factors agricultural products forecasting price movements quantile regression model |
| title | Using Quantile Regression Approach to Analyze Price Movements of Agricultural Products in China |
| title_full | Using Quantile Regression Approach to Analyze Price Movements of Agricultural Products in China |
| title_fullStr | Using Quantile Regression Approach to Analyze Price Movements of Agricultural Products in China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Using Quantile Regression Approach to Analyze Price Movements of Agricultural Products in China |
| title_short | Using Quantile Regression Approach to Analyze Price Movements of Agricultural Products in China |
| title_sort | using quantile regression approach to analyze price movements of agricultural products in china |
| topic | cost factors agricultural products forecasting price movements quantile regression model |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2095311912600550 |
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