Consequences of cross‐season demographic correlations for population viability

Abstract Demographic correlations are pervasive in wildlife populations and can represent important secondary drivers of population growth. Empirical evidence suggests that correlations are in general positive for long‐lived species, but little is known about the degree of variation among spatially...

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Main Authors: Kate Layton‐Matthews, Tone K. Reiertsen, Kjell‐Einar Erikstad, Tycho Anker‐Nilssen, Francis Daunt, Sarah Wanless, Robert T. Barrett, Mark A. Newell, Mike P. Harris
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2023-07-01
Series:Ecology and Evolution
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Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.10312
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author Kate Layton‐Matthews
Tone K. Reiertsen
Kjell‐Einar Erikstad
Tycho Anker‐Nilssen
Francis Daunt
Sarah Wanless
Robert T. Barrett
Mark A. Newell
Mike P. Harris
author_facet Kate Layton‐Matthews
Tone K. Reiertsen
Kjell‐Einar Erikstad
Tycho Anker‐Nilssen
Francis Daunt
Sarah Wanless
Robert T. Barrett
Mark A. Newell
Mike P. Harris
author_sort Kate Layton‐Matthews
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Demographic correlations are pervasive in wildlife populations and can represent important secondary drivers of population growth. Empirical evidence suggests that correlations are in general positive for long‐lived species, but little is known about the degree of variation among spatially segregated populations of the same species in relation to environmental conditions. We assessed the relative importance of two cross‐season correlations in survival and productivity, for three Atlantic puffin (Fratercula arctica) populations with contrasting population trajectories and non‐overlapping year‐round distributions. The two correlations reflected either a relationship between adult survival prior to breeding on productivity, or a relationship between productivity and adult survival the subsequent year. Demographic rates and their correlations were estimated with an integrated population model, and their respective contributions to variation in population growth were calculated using a transient‐life table response experiment. For all three populations, demographic correlations were positive at both time lags, although their strength differed. Given the different year‐round distributions of these populations, this variation in the strength population‐level demographic correlations points to environmental conditions as an important driver of demographic variation through life‐history constraints. Consequently, the contributions of variances and correlations in demographic rates to population growth rates differed among puffin populations, which has implications for—particularly small—populations' viability under environmental change as positive correlations tend to reduce the stochastic population growth rate.
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spelling doaj-art-cba41ed485ab4f2eb8e802855a797e6f2025-08-20T02:56:31ZengWileyEcology and Evolution2045-77582023-07-01137n/an/a10.1002/ece3.10312Consequences of cross‐season demographic correlations for population viabilityKate Layton‐Matthews0Tone K. Reiertsen1Kjell‐Einar Erikstad2Tycho Anker‐Nilssen3Francis Daunt4Sarah Wanless5Robert T. Barrett6Mark A. Newell7Mike P. Harris8Norwegian Institute for Nature Research FRAM Centre Tromsø NorwayNorwegian Institute for Nature Research FRAM Centre Tromsø NorwayNorwegian Institute for Nature Research FRAM Centre Tromsø NorwayNorwegian Institute for Nature Research Trondheim NorwayUK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Bush Estate Penicuik UKUK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Bush Estate Penicuik UKDepartment of Natural Sciences Tromsø University Museum Tromsø NorwayUK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Bush Estate Penicuik UKUK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Bush Estate Penicuik UKAbstract Demographic correlations are pervasive in wildlife populations and can represent important secondary drivers of population growth. Empirical evidence suggests that correlations are in general positive for long‐lived species, but little is known about the degree of variation among spatially segregated populations of the same species in relation to environmental conditions. We assessed the relative importance of two cross‐season correlations in survival and productivity, for three Atlantic puffin (Fratercula arctica) populations with contrasting population trajectories and non‐overlapping year‐round distributions. The two correlations reflected either a relationship between adult survival prior to breeding on productivity, or a relationship between productivity and adult survival the subsequent year. Demographic rates and their correlations were estimated with an integrated population model, and their respective contributions to variation in population growth were calculated using a transient‐life table response experiment. For all three populations, demographic correlations were positive at both time lags, although their strength differed. Given the different year‐round distributions of these populations, this variation in the strength population‐level demographic correlations points to environmental conditions as an important driver of demographic variation through life‐history constraints. Consequently, the contributions of variances and correlations in demographic rates to population growth rates differed among puffin populations, which has implications for—particularly small—populations' viability under environmental change as positive correlations tend to reduce the stochastic population growth rate.https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.10312Atlantic puffindemographic correlationsintegrated population modelmulti‐population studiespopulation dynamicsseabird
spellingShingle Kate Layton‐Matthews
Tone K. Reiertsen
Kjell‐Einar Erikstad
Tycho Anker‐Nilssen
Francis Daunt
Sarah Wanless
Robert T. Barrett
Mark A. Newell
Mike P. Harris
Consequences of cross‐season demographic correlations for population viability
Ecology and Evolution
Atlantic puffin
demographic correlations
integrated population model
multi‐population studies
population dynamics
seabird
title Consequences of cross‐season demographic correlations for population viability
title_full Consequences of cross‐season demographic correlations for population viability
title_fullStr Consequences of cross‐season demographic correlations for population viability
title_full_unstemmed Consequences of cross‐season demographic correlations for population viability
title_short Consequences of cross‐season demographic correlations for population viability
title_sort consequences of cross season demographic correlations for population viability
topic Atlantic puffin
demographic correlations
integrated population model
multi‐population studies
population dynamics
seabird
url https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.10312
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