A Flexible Bivariate Integer-Valued Autoregressive of Order (1) Model for Over- and Under-Dispersed Time Series Applications

In real-life inter-related time series, the counting responses of different entities are commonly influenced by some time-dependent covariates, while the individual counting series may exhibit different levels of mutual over- or under-dispersion or mixed levels of over- and under-dispersion. In the...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Naushad Mamode Khan, Yuvraj Sunecher
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2025-03-01
Series:Stats
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2571-905X/8/1/22
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:In real-life inter-related time series, the counting responses of different entities are commonly influenced by some time-dependent covariates, while the individual counting series may exhibit different levels of mutual over- or under-dispersion or mixed levels of over- and under-dispersion. In the current literature, there is still no flexible bivariate time series process that can model series of data of such types. This paper introduces a bivariate integer-valued autoregressive of order 1 (BINAR(1)) model with COM-Poisson innovations under time-dependent moments that can accommodate different levels of over- and under-dispersion. Another particularity of the proposed model is that the cross-correlation between the series is induced locally by relating the current observation of one series with the previous-lagged observation of the other series. The estimation of the model parameters is conducted via a Generalized Quasi-Likelihood (GQL) approach. The proposed model is applied to different real-life series problems in Mauritius, including transport, finance, and socio-economic sectors.
ISSN:2571-905X