Exploring European hydrogen demand variations under tactical uncertainty with seasonal hydrogen storage
Achieving a net-zero energy system in Europe by 2050 will likely require large-scale deployment of hydrogen and seasonal energy storage to manage variability in renewable supply and demand. This study addresses two key objectives: (1) to develop a modeling framework that integrates seasonal storage...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-09-01
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| Series: | Energy Strategy Reviews |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X25001816 |
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| author | Sebastian Emil Hummelen Erlend Hordvei Marianne Petersen Stian Backe Hongyu Zhang Pedro Crespo del Granado |
| author_facet | Sebastian Emil Hummelen Erlend Hordvei Marianne Petersen Stian Backe Hongyu Zhang Pedro Crespo del Granado |
| author_sort | Sebastian Emil Hummelen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Achieving a net-zero energy system in Europe by 2050 will likely require large-scale deployment of hydrogen and seasonal energy storage to manage variability in renewable supply and demand. This study addresses two key objectives: (1) to develop a modeling framework that integrates seasonal storage into a stochastic multi-horizon capacity expansion model, explicitly capturing tactical uncertainty across timescales; and (2) to assess the impact of seasonal hydrogen storage on long-term investment decisions in European power and hydrogen infrastructure under three hydrogen demand scenarios. To this end, the multi-horizon stochastic programming model EMPIRE is extended with tactical stages within each investment period, enabling operational decisions to be modeled as a multi-stage stochastic program. This approach captures short-term uncertainty while preserving long-term investment foresight. Results show that seasonal hydrogen storage considerably enhances system flexibility, displacing the need for up to 600 TWh/yr of dispatchable generation in Europe after 2040 and sizing down cross-border hydrogen transmission capacities by up to 12%. Storage investments increase by factors of 5–14, which increases the investments in variable renewables and improve utilization, particularly solar. Scenarios with seasonal storage also show up to 6% lower total system costs and more balanced infrastructure deployment across regions. These findings underline the importance of modeling temporal uncertainty and seasonal dynamics in long-term energy system planning. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-cb538fbb43d443ebb7d5bf75384b9aad |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2211-467X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-09-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Energy Strategy Reviews |
| spelling | doaj-art-cb538fbb43d443ebb7d5bf75384b9aad2025-08-20T03:41:40ZengElsevierEnergy Strategy Reviews2211-467X2025-09-016110181810.1016/j.esr.2025.101818Exploring European hydrogen demand variations under tactical uncertainty with seasonal hydrogen storageSebastian Emil Hummelen0Erlend Hordvei1Marianne Petersen2Stian Backe3Hongyu Zhang4Pedro Crespo del Granado5Department of Industrial Economics and Technology Management, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, NorwayDepartment of Industrial Economics and Technology Management, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, NorwayDepartment of Wind and Energy Systems, Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby, Denmark; Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy A/S, Brande, DenmarkDepartment of Industrial Economics and Technology Management, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway; SINTEF Energy Research, Trondheim, Norway; Corresponding author at: Department of Industrial Economics and Technology Management, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway.Department of Industrial Economics and Technology Management, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway; School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton, United KingdomDepartment of Industrial Economics and Technology Management, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, NorwayAchieving a net-zero energy system in Europe by 2050 will likely require large-scale deployment of hydrogen and seasonal energy storage to manage variability in renewable supply and demand. This study addresses two key objectives: (1) to develop a modeling framework that integrates seasonal storage into a stochastic multi-horizon capacity expansion model, explicitly capturing tactical uncertainty across timescales; and (2) to assess the impact of seasonal hydrogen storage on long-term investment decisions in European power and hydrogen infrastructure under three hydrogen demand scenarios. To this end, the multi-horizon stochastic programming model EMPIRE is extended with tactical stages within each investment period, enabling operational decisions to be modeled as a multi-stage stochastic program. This approach captures short-term uncertainty while preserving long-term investment foresight. Results show that seasonal hydrogen storage considerably enhances system flexibility, displacing the need for up to 600 TWh/yr of dispatchable generation in Europe after 2040 and sizing down cross-border hydrogen transmission capacities by up to 12%. Storage investments increase by factors of 5–14, which increases the investments in variable renewables and improve utilization, particularly solar. Scenarios with seasonal storage also show up to 6% lower total system costs and more balanced infrastructure deployment across regions. These findings underline the importance of modeling temporal uncertainty and seasonal dynamics in long-term energy system planning.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X25001816Energy system modelingStochastic optimizationTactical uncertaintySeasonal storageHydrogen demand profile |
| spellingShingle | Sebastian Emil Hummelen Erlend Hordvei Marianne Petersen Stian Backe Hongyu Zhang Pedro Crespo del Granado Exploring European hydrogen demand variations under tactical uncertainty with seasonal hydrogen storage Energy Strategy Reviews Energy system modeling Stochastic optimization Tactical uncertainty Seasonal storage Hydrogen demand profile |
| title | Exploring European hydrogen demand variations under tactical uncertainty with seasonal hydrogen storage |
| title_full | Exploring European hydrogen demand variations under tactical uncertainty with seasonal hydrogen storage |
| title_fullStr | Exploring European hydrogen demand variations under tactical uncertainty with seasonal hydrogen storage |
| title_full_unstemmed | Exploring European hydrogen demand variations under tactical uncertainty with seasonal hydrogen storage |
| title_short | Exploring European hydrogen demand variations under tactical uncertainty with seasonal hydrogen storage |
| title_sort | exploring european hydrogen demand variations under tactical uncertainty with seasonal hydrogen storage |
| topic | Energy system modeling Stochastic optimization Tactical uncertainty Seasonal storage Hydrogen demand profile |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X25001816 |
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