Research on an Intelligent Prediction Method for the Carbon Emissions of Prefabricated Buildings During the Construction Stage, Based on Modular Quantification
Prefabricated buildings are widely utilized due to their effectiveness in reducing carbon emissions. The construction stage has a significantly higher carbon emission rate than the other stages of their life cycle, but this is difficult to accurately quantify and predict due to the high variability....
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| Format: | Article |
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MDPI AG
2025-06-01
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| Series: | Buildings |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2075-5309/15/12/1997 |
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| author | Yang Yang Xiaodong Cai Xinlong Ma Gang Yao Ting Lei Hongbo Tan Ying Wang |
| author_facet | Yang Yang Xiaodong Cai Xinlong Ma Gang Yao Ting Lei Hongbo Tan Ying Wang |
| author_sort | Yang Yang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Prefabricated buildings are widely utilized due to their effectiveness in reducing carbon emissions. The construction stage has a significantly higher carbon emission rate than the other stages of their life cycle, but this is difficult to accurately quantify and predict due to the high variability. This study clarifies the system boundary of carbon emissions and the parameters of influence in carbon emissions predictions. The carbon emission quantification model was improved by using the process analysis method and the carbon emission factor method, and a modular calculation formula was proposed. Based on the machine learning algorithm, a carbon emissions prediction model for prefabricated buildings’ construction stage was established and hyperparameter optimization was conducted. A sample database for predicting prefabricated buildings’ carbon emissions during the construction stage was established using a modular quantification method, and the thin plate spline interpolation algorithm was introduced to expand this. The prediction results of carbon emission prediction models using four algorithms, SVR, BPNN, ELM, and RF, were compared and analyzed by RMSE and R<sup>2</sup>. The results show that the model based on BPNN has the highest prediction accuracy when determining the carbon emissions of prefabricated building during the construction stage, and this method can provide a more accurate reference for subsequent quantitative research on carbon emissions from prefabricated buildings. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-cb306558c4544c2ca475210e64e997a0 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2075-5309 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Buildings |
| spelling | doaj-art-cb306558c4544c2ca475210e64e997a02025-08-20T02:24:42ZengMDPI AGBuildings2075-53092025-06-011512199710.3390/buildings15121997Research on an Intelligent Prediction Method for the Carbon Emissions of Prefabricated Buildings During the Construction Stage, Based on Modular QuantificationYang Yang0Xiaodong Cai1Xinlong Ma2Gang Yao3Ting Lei4Hongbo Tan5Ying Wang6Key Laboratory of New Technology for Construction of Cities in Mountain Area, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400045, ChinaSchool of Civil Engineering, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400045, ChinaCentral & Southern China Municipal Engineering Design and Research Institute Co., Ltd., Chongqing 401122, ChinaKey Laboratory of New Technology for Construction of Cities in Mountain Area, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400045, ChinaSchool of Civil Engineering, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400045, ChinaChongqing Railway Group, Chongqing 400045, ChinaInternational Educational Exchange Center, Tangshan University, Tangshan 063002, ChinaPrefabricated buildings are widely utilized due to their effectiveness in reducing carbon emissions. The construction stage has a significantly higher carbon emission rate than the other stages of their life cycle, but this is difficult to accurately quantify and predict due to the high variability. This study clarifies the system boundary of carbon emissions and the parameters of influence in carbon emissions predictions. The carbon emission quantification model was improved by using the process analysis method and the carbon emission factor method, and a modular calculation formula was proposed. Based on the machine learning algorithm, a carbon emissions prediction model for prefabricated buildings’ construction stage was established and hyperparameter optimization was conducted. A sample database for predicting prefabricated buildings’ carbon emissions during the construction stage was established using a modular quantification method, and the thin plate spline interpolation algorithm was introduced to expand this. The prediction results of carbon emission prediction models using four algorithms, SVR, BPNN, ELM, and RF, were compared and analyzed by RMSE and R<sup>2</sup>. The results show that the model based on BPNN has the highest prediction accuracy when determining the carbon emissions of prefabricated building during the construction stage, and this method can provide a more accurate reference for subsequent quantitative research on carbon emissions from prefabricated buildings.https://www.mdpi.com/2075-5309/15/12/1997carbon emission predictionmachine learningprocess analysis methodfabricated buildingcarbon emission in the prefabricated building construction stage |
| spellingShingle | Yang Yang Xiaodong Cai Xinlong Ma Gang Yao Ting Lei Hongbo Tan Ying Wang Research on an Intelligent Prediction Method for the Carbon Emissions of Prefabricated Buildings During the Construction Stage, Based on Modular Quantification Buildings carbon emission prediction machine learning process analysis method fabricated building carbon emission in the prefabricated building construction stage |
| title | Research on an Intelligent Prediction Method for the Carbon Emissions of Prefabricated Buildings During the Construction Stage, Based on Modular Quantification |
| title_full | Research on an Intelligent Prediction Method for the Carbon Emissions of Prefabricated Buildings During the Construction Stage, Based on Modular Quantification |
| title_fullStr | Research on an Intelligent Prediction Method for the Carbon Emissions of Prefabricated Buildings During the Construction Stage, Based on Modular Quantification |
| title_full_unstemmed | Research on an Intelligent Prediction Method for the Carbon Emissions of Prefabricated Buildings During the Construction Stage, Based on Modular Quantification |
| title_short | Research on an Intelligent Prediction Method for the Carbon Emissions of Prefabricated Buildings During the Construction Stage, Based on Modular Quantification |
| title_sort | research on an intelligent prediction method for the carbon emissions of prefabricated buildings during the construction stage based on modular quantification |
| topic | carbon emission prediction machine learning process analysis method fabricated building carbon emission in the prefabricated building construction stage |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2075-5309/15/12/1997 |
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