Predicted habitat and areas of ecological significance shifts of top predators in the South Shetland Islands under climate changes

The South Shetland Islands, a critical area for primary productivity within the Southern Ocean, are significantly affected by global climate change. Seabirds and marine mammals, highly sensitive to ecological changes, are considered sentinel species within the ecosystem. Monitoring top predators and...

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Main Authors: Yufei Dai, Denghui Yan, Yu Liu, Mingding Zhong, Minhao Gao, Hao Cheng, Wenhong Deng, Fuxing Wu
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Frontiers Media S.A. 2025-04-01
Series:Frontiers in Marine Science
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Online Access:https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2025.1554232/full
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author Yufei Dai
Yufei Dai
Denghui Yan
Yu Liu
Yu Liu
Mingding Zhong
Minhao Gao
Hao Cheng
Wenhong Deng
Fuxing Wu
author_facet Yufei Dai
Yufei Dai
Denghui Yan
Yu Liu
Yu Liu
Mingding Zhong
Minhao Gao
Hao Cheng
Wenhong Deng
Fuxing Wu
author_sort Yufei Dai
collection DOAJ
description The South Shetland Islands, a critical area for primary productivity within the Southern Ocean, are significantly affected by global climate change. Seabirds and marine mammals, highly sensitive to ecological changes, are considered sentinel species within the ecosystem. Monitoring top predators and identifying Areas of Ecological Significance (AES) are essential for enhancing biodiversity conservation effectiveness and addressing future climate changes. This study employed the MaxEnt model and Zonation method to predict the distribution of suitable habitats and AES for 14 top predators in the South Shetland Islands under current and future climate scenarios. Key findings include: 1) The spatial distribution of top predators in the South Shetland Islands is predominantly influenced by bathymetry, mixed layer thickness (Mlotst), and sea ice concentration (SIC). 2) The highly suitable habitats for the Gentoo Penguin (Pygoscelis papua), Humpback Whale (Megaptera novaeangliae), and Light-mantled Albatross (Phoebetria palpebrata) are expected to decrease under various future scenarios. 3) The AES in the South Shetland Islands are predominantly concentrated along the southern coastal areas. 4) The AES on the western side of the islands are projected to undergo significant fluctuations, while those on the eastern side are likely to exhibit minor changes, with the central area remaining relatively stable.
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spelling doaj-art-cb042f561e4c48899cbdcd941b61941c2025-08-20T02:24:34ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Marine Science2296-77452025-04-011210.3389/fmars.2025.15542321554232Predicted habitat and areas of ecological significance shifts of top predators in the South Shetland Islands under climate changesYufei Dai0Yufei Dai1Denghui Yan2Yu Liu3Yu Liu4Mingding Zhong5Minhao Gao6Hao Cheng7Wenhong Deng8Fuxing Wu9Key Laboratory for Polar Science, Polar Research Institute of China, Ministry of Natural Resources, Shanghai, ChinaAntarctic Great Wall Ecology National Observation and Research Station, Polar Research Institute of China, Ministry of Natural Resources, Shanghai, ChinaMinistry of Education Key Laboratory for Biodiversity Sciences and Ecological Engineering, College of Life Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, ChinaMinistry of Education Key Laboratory for Biodiversity Sciences and Ecological Engineering, College of Life Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing, ChinaKey Laboratory for Polar Science, Polar Research Institute of China, Ministry of Natural Resources, Shanghai, ChinaKey Laboratory for Polar Science, Polar Research Institute of China, Ministry of Natural Resources, Shanghai, ChinaKey Laboratory for Polar Science, Polar Research Institute of China, Ministry of Natural Resources, Shanghai, ChinaMinistry of Education Key Laboratory for Biodiversity Sciences and Ecological Engineering, College of Life Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, ChinaThird Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Xiamen, ChinaThe South Shetland Islands, a critical area for primary productivity within the Southern Ocean, are significantly affected by global climate change. Seabirds and marine mammals, highly sensitive to ecological changes, are considered sentinel species within the ecosystem. Monitoring top predators and identifying Areas of Ecological Significance (AES) are essential for enhancing biodiversity conservation effectiveness and addressing future climate changes. This study employed the MaxEnt model and Zonation method to predict the distribution of suitable habitats and AES for 14 top predators in the South Shetland Islands under current and future climate scenarios. Key findings include: 1) The spatial distribution of top predators in the South Shetland Islands is predominantly influenced by bathymetry, mixed layer thickness (Mlotst), and sea ice concentration (SIC). 2) The highly suitable habitats for the Gentoo Penguin (Pygoscelis papua), Humpback Whale (Megaptera novaeangliae), and Light-mantled Albatross (Phoebetria palpebrata) are expected to decrease under various future scenarios. 3) The AES in the South Shetland Islands are predominantly concentrated along the southern coastal areas. 4) The AES on the western side of the islands are projected to undergo significant fluctuations, while those on the eastern side are likely to exhibit minor changes, with the central area remaining relatively stable.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2025.1554232/fullSouth Shetland Islandclimate changetop predatorssuitable habitatAreas of Ecological Significance (AESs)
spellingShingle Yufei Dai
Yufei Dai
Denghui Yan
Yu Liu
Yu Liu
Mingding Zhong
Minhao Gao
Hao Cheng
Wenhong Deng
Fuxing Wu
Predicted habitat and areas of ecological significance shifts of top predators in the South Shetland Islands under climate changes
Frontiers in Marine Science
South Shetland Island
climate change
top predators
suitable habitat
Areas of Ecological Significance (AESs)
title Predicted habitat and areas of ecological significance shifts of top predators in the South Shetland Islands under climate changes
title_full Predicted habitat and areas of ecological significance shifts of top predators in the South Shetland Islands under climate changes
title_fullStr Predicted habitat and areas of ecological significance shifts of top predators in the South Shetland Islands under climate changes
title_full_unstemmed Predicted habitat and areas of ecological significance shifts of top predators in the South Shetland Islands under climate changes
title_short Predicted habitat and areas of ecological significance shifts of top predators in the South Shetland Islands under climate changes
title_sort predicted habitat and areas of ecological significance shifts of top predators in the south shetland islands under climate changes
topic South Shetland Island
climate change
top predators
suitable habitat
Areas of Ecological Significance (AESs)
url https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2025.1554232/full
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